Cost/Benefit Ratio of Offsoundings weather reports

[davil]

Don
never heard of TRS, thanks for the link.
Is this what we normally know as later hurricane season that generates on the Gulf as opposed to hurricanes originated on the African coast?

[JDGreenlee]

Originally Posted by Adelie

In the case of a hurricane knowing ... Best bang for the buck.

What they said. See Bowditch for evasive actions from storms.

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by capn_billl

And what's with all the sniping. Seems to me it's time for a few folks to go back out on the water.

Hurricane season is almost over, and Covid is on the downturn, and places are starting to open back up.

Been a stressful two years, time to get back out there, and calm down.

A couple weeks on a beach with a drink in hand will set your mind right again.

Now thats great advice!

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by PippaB

And you were rude in the process of doing so. I second Auspicious' take on the matter, but didn't have the guts to say so.

Since it was apparently posted as a Mod, not as a thread participate, the CF rules don't allow you to make any comment. Auspicious' approach to flag it is certainly available.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

Lots of good stuff here.

Thank you. I try. *grin* Snipping like mad to get back to you.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

BTW We met 35 years ago camping and like it.

With no sarcasm intended at all, good for you. Okay - as long as you approach this adventure with eyes open. You will be limited in storage space and electrical power. Compromises will be necessary. As I think I said above, the boat is sturdy. The weak link is always crew. You'll generally be slower than a longer boat BUT a good sailor in a small boat is often faster than a mediocre sailor in a larger one.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

2. Never ruled out AIS I actually will purchase a Simrad RS40-B.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

4. I am unaware that BlackCat is MacOS compatible.

https://blackcatsystems.com/software...ather_fax.html is native on MacOS.

If you have a Tecsun PL-880 or other HF/SSB receiver you don't need an SDR. I also have an SDR and have found that at HF the sensitivity and selectivity don't measure up.

With the Mac you certainly have a combi jack (TRRS) and getting from the receiver to the Mac needs something like this https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...0?ie=UTF8&th=1 or this https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...0?ie=UTF8&th=1 . The latter reminds me that if you use your Mac for navigation you WILL run out of USB ports. I use an Anker powered hub to avoid overloading the port on the laptop. See https://www.amazon.com/Anker-PowerIQ.../dp/B00VDVCQ84 . I picked it because it runs off 12VDC. You'll want an air/auto power adapter for your Mac also. The Tecsun PL-880 runs off USB power. There are alternatives - what I've listed is not only what I use, but works well enough to be in my delivery go kit.

If you have a full HF/SSB/Pactor (more on this later) you won't need the Tecsun or other receiver or the cable interconnect or the Black Cat software; you will need to be able boot Windows for Airmail. The weather fax demodulator in the Pactor modem is quite good.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

5. The complexity, size, cost and amperage are currently the disincentives to installing an HF/SSB but your contrary opinion is exactly the experiential data I hoped to mine with my question.

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

7. So you seem to be prioritizing HF/SSB over the Inreach and Go. Did I understand correctly. If so I will take a harder look at HF/SSB which I originally had leaned towards but thought perhaps was becoming obsolete with less HAM operators reporting now.

HF/SSB/Pactor transfers data at 10,500 bps compared to Iridium at 2,400 bps. You'll see higher numbers for both due to data compression but they are both using the same algorithms. Power consumption is higher for HF/SSB. Initial cost is higher. The opportunities for community are higher. Weather fax is free. Gribs from Saildocs are free (Winlink) to cheap (Sailmail).

Satellite is cheaper, smaller, slower, and lower power. The running costs are a lot higher. For most people the break-even for long term cruisers between HF/SSB and satellite is about two years. The GO! in particular is intended to leverage phones and tablets. Getting gribs (see my previous tirade on the shortfalls of gribs) off your phone and onto your laptop is hard. Most people get it done with extra cost service from PredictWind. You get ONE text address which may not be a problem for a married couple. Email is through the text interface and very limited. GO! is better than no long range communication at all. That doesn't make it good. A 9555 phone will cost about double.

The InReach is less than GO! It is a tracker and SMS tool only. I have one and carry it because not every boat I walk on has any working long range communication. It's useless for weather in comparison to the weather fax.

You said you are interested in being unplugged. You can skip this next part. *grin* Starlink is going to be a game changer. Mr. Musk's schedule predictions for mobile do NOT apply to us. He misses schedules on a regular basis anyway. My prediction based on a career in turn-around program management of high tech systems is 2025 for the first availability of Starlink service for ocean crossers. I expect that to be a 200-250 watt (compared to the current terrestrial 100 watt) terminal on the boat. It will take at least another year to get down to 80ish watts. It will bring broadband to ocean crossing boats. I'm excited about it.

Originally Posted by Adelie

“Mocking” was a poor choice of words on my part and arguably not what I was doing. Sarcastic perhaps.

I asked a series of pointed questions intending to highlight the absolutist nature of Stu’s post.

The status of being a moderator is a position of power, responsibility, and trust. Every word posted by any moderator reflects on the entire moderation team and on the forum in general. There is no place for mocking. There is no place for sarcasm. Like any other relationship with disparate power between the parties such things constitute harassment. Moderators should always reflect on their words before clicking Submit. Caesar's wife.

See https://competendo.net/en/10_Golden_...for_Moderators

I also commend bullet #2 here https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ork&page=rules

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Mara Mae

7. So you seem to be prioritizing HF/SSB .

Do realize that Auspicious is probably in the minority these days preferring HF/SSB & Synoptics over Satcomms & gribs. The HF crowd just tend to yell louder with bigger walls of text - it is a way of life for them. (edit, yes comms hardware and weather format are independent issues, I just put them together because Auspicious is perhaps a bit out of step on each).

You can do just fine with either (or as I have pointed out, we all used to do pretty well with neither) . . . but many (most) of us find both Sat Coms and gribs easier and more effective to work with.

On another topic which has been mentioned . . . I have worked with multiple shore routers and I share the opinion (which others have mentioned) that you are better off not depending on someone sitting in an office 2000 miles away. I know mentally/logically you can justify the shore router as the more efficient/professional but in the real world, you don't want to be sitting there waiting for his input when his weather models might well not even have the current conditions correct. On one series of passages I also compared my evaluations with the shore router (one of the best in the world) and we came to some what different conclusions about a dozen times and it was a coin toss - we pretty much exactly split the difference on who was 'more closely right' on those situations - so the 'pro human in an office' input was in fact not really really a huge value.

Oh, (edit 2): yea a 30" CD is just fine - used to be sort of the 'standard' RTW type of boat back in the day. The fleet has gotten much bigger and fancier over time, but the CD will do you just fine (if it is all in good nick).

[Snore]

I like Auspicious and respect him as a competent delivery guy.

BUT—- I subscribe to the KISS philosophy. An Iridium GO is darn near idiot-proof. Raise antenna and you can send email to an auto-responder for a GRIB—- OR use PredictWind —OR use Luck Grib — OR use another weather program.

If you want to take it a 1/2 step higher, use the iWatch Satellite app to determine when a sat will be closest to you.

The portable SSB is an acquired skill. With just two aboard- why add to your workload?

Let’s face it- you are taking a small vessel transatlantic. There are four ways the story ends poorly- mechanical failure (mitigated by good boat prep), collision with another vessel (mitigated with AIS transponder), weather (mitigated with Iridium) or collision with UFO or whale (mitigated with diligence and prayer).

Why tempt fate? What is the valid reason NOT to get accurate weather daily or twice a day?

IMHO the smaller the boat, the more you need regular weather routing. Regular weather updates and routing will make the passage safer and it will take fewer days.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

Do realize that Auspicious is probably in the minority these days preferring HF/SSB & Synoptics over Satcomms & gribs.

You realize of course that being in the minority doesn’t mean I’m wrong. I laid out advantages and disadvantages of both HF/SSB and satellite. You can gloss over Pactor IV being four times faster than Iridium. You can’t gloss over the practical and social aspects of community for HF/SSB nets, particularly for seasonal migrations like the Pacific Puddle Jump. Even for mundane migrations like US East Coast snowbirds the WWRN is extremely active.

As I posted, I’ll be all over Starlink when it’s available for us. In the meantime I’ll take the speed and reliability of HF/SSB. I don’t support HF/SSB from nostalgia but because it is a better solution.

As for synoptics https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/A_brief.php vice gribs https://www.windy.com/?38.951,-76.494,5 I see no sign whatsoever of the two cold fronts off the US East Coast, or of circulation around the deep Low over Newfoundland. No sign of the gale now centered just 200 miles east of the DELMARVA that has southbound cruisers sitting behind Sandy Hook NJ waiting for it to clear. Not a peep. No sign of the wind reversed below 30N due to the aforementioned cold fronts. Gribs are deficient. Is getting the wrong information better if it’s easier?

I’m happy to be in the minority where capabilities are assessed on the merits.

I did miss one element that drives the decision process: if you have a real direct dial requirement such as elderly parents in care or an active business I can see taking the speed hit of satellite. Are you carrying your satellite device with you all the time? Every time you dinghy ashore? If not, you don't really have a direct dial requirement. I managed a near 100 million proposal transatlantic over HF/SSB/Pactor (which we won) with just Pactor III. My company leased a sat phone for me and HF/SSB/Pactor was better and faster. That isn't the only time I've had direct side-by-side comparison. I've built and deployed satellite gear where the requirement set made sense. I'm not talking out of my hat. I'm not a lemming.

Leaving today, HF/SSB/Pactor. Leaving in 2025 I'd be looking at LiFEPO4 and solar everywhere plus a big generator and ganged battery chargers if that was what it took for a 250W Starlink. If I was leaving in 2024 I might just wait for Starlink. Satellite is the future. It really isn't now.

Delivery skippers like @Snore and me are a little different use case. We step on and off boats all the time and can only count on what we have in our bags. So he chose a GO! and I chose an inReach. I'm glad such products are available. That doesn't mean they are the best choice for someone with a fixed installation. They aren't.

[PippaB]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

...As I posted, I’ll be all over Starlink when it’s available for us. In the meantime I’ll take the speed and reliability of HF/SSB. I don’t support HF/SSB from nostalgia but because it is a better solution....

I disagree on this point, but I think some of that has to do with where people are sailing. North Atlantic? Pretty reliable. Large sections of the Pacific and Indian Oceans? A lot less so. I've been a ham for going on 40 years and I use HF/SSB and Pactor for our weather because I own one and I like using a radio, but I would not call it reliable in many instances. I think this needs evaluation by the individual along with all the other considerations of the where and how of the voyage.

Originally Posted by Auspicious

...As for synoptics https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/A_brief.php vice gribs https://www.windy.com/?38.951,-76.494,5 I see no sign whatsoever of the two cold fronts off the US East Coast, or of circulation around the deep Low over Newfoundland. No sign of the gale now centered just 200 miles east of the DELMARVA that has southbound cruisers sitting behind Sandy Hook NJ waiting for it to clear. Not a peep. No sign of the wind reversed below 30N due to the aforementioned cold fronts. Gribs are deficient. Is getting the wrong information better if it’s easier? ...

In this we are in complete agreement. I download and use gribs, but synoptics and the forecast discussions are king for me. If the models are that good then why do we still have large staffs of meteorologists issuing forecasts (and no, it's not just a holdover from the good old days)? I don't even care about the text forecast, it's the forecast discussion, that tells me in words what the meteorologists are watching, what differences there are between the models, and why they favor the one they do (or if they do). The farther you get from the ideal season the more important those discussions become, as they let you know the variability in the forecast.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by PippaB

I don't even care about the text forecast, it's the forecast discussion, that tells me in words what the meteorologists are watching, what differences there are between the models, and why they favor the one they do (or if they do). The farther you get from the ideal season the more important those discussions become, as they let you know the variability in the forecast.

Agree. We'll defer a discussion of HF/SSB reliability to a virtual beer over WebEx. *grin* With respect to forecast discussion Saildocs really shines here. You can look at the synoptics and read the analysis. At least for US synoptics the name of the forecaster is in the title block - that's pretty spiffy for government accountability. It also means you can look at yesterday's 48 and today's 24 (both talking about tomorrow) and make your own assessment of both the forecasters and the stability of the atmosphere. You simply don't get that insight from gribs.

Remember when you get caught by surprise while using gribs it is not the meteorologists' fault. They didn't touch the data. You're depending on software developers sitting in rooms with no windows working from specifications written by people they can't reach of whom to ask questions. It's no wonder the various models are so often in disagreement and the ensembles are all over the place.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

You realize of course that being in the minority doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

As I said in my post, all the options are quite workable - different compromises for different people. If it works for you, all fine, I am not criticizing it.

I’m happy to be in the minority where capabilities are assessed on the merits.

Well, 'on the merits' ALL the top ocean racing navigators primarily depend on gribs for at sea routing, they basically all use either Adrena or Expedition. And in the high latitude blue water cruising crowd, there are quite a number of people who are knowledgable enough to judge 'on the merits' and gribs are the predominant tool of choice.

Net net, I am not criticizing anyone's choices, I just wanted Mara Mae to be aware that yours represents a minority choice (today) and that includes groups of people who know enough and are experienced enough to make good choices 'on the merits'.

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

Oh, (edit 2): yea a 30" CD is just fine - used to be sort of the 'standard' RTW type of boat back in the day. The fleet has gotten much bigger and fancier over time, but the CD will do you just fine (if it is all in good nick).

Just an added thought on this as you are considering various points of view - the bigger boats (tend to) carry bigger fuel tanks and on average motor quite a bit more (than 30'ers). Back in the day, it was typical to just motor in and out of harbor and sail the rest. Today, with the bigger fleet it is not unusual for cruisers to motor 30% and not unheard of for 50% motoring. You should factor that into various options and choices because it allows those on bigger boats more speed thru high-pressure ridges (and then better positioning for the next low) and more power generation (and thus running more 'toys').

.......

[PippaB]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

...Well, 'on the merits' ALL the top ocean racing navigators primarily depend on gribs for at sea routing, they basically all use with Adrena or Expedition. ....

Stan Honey, who recommends the use of both Adrena and Expedition and is no slouch as a navigator and weather router, has made several presentations about why he doesn't follow the route spit out by the software. It boils down to the gribs and the software presenting a uniform wind field and that isn't real world. When skirting a high, for instance, he recommends staying at least 30 miles further from the high (if it is well defined) than recommended by the software route, and even further if the high is not well defined. This because the in the lulls closer to the high (the non-uniformity) you'll be tempted/required to head up, which then gets you closer, wash, rinse, repeat until you are becalmed.

In one of their Pac Cup presentations he and Chris Lew went over all the grib and routing software options, and then moved on to weather charts:

These weather charts could not be more useful as they add a layer of human intelligence (which is generally considerable, given the years of experience of the forecaster) applied to the output of the computer models’ data. Given the teachings of Lee Chesneau, I would feel almost naked at sea without access to the surface and 500mb charts.

So, while the racers may have and use gribs and routing software, there are at least two examples of highly successful navigators who temper that with exactly what we are recommending - synoptic charts and forecasts from meteorologists.

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by PippaB

Stan Honey, who recommends the use of both Adrena and Expedition and is no slouch as a navigator and weather router, has made several presentations about why he doesn't follow the route spit out by the software. It boils down to the gribs and the software presenting a uniform wind field and that isn't real world. When skirting a high, for instance, he recommends staying at least 30 miles further from the high (if it is well defined) than recommended by the software route, and even further if the high is not well defined. This because the in the lulls closer to the high (the non-uniformity) you'll be tempted/required to head up, which then gets you closer, wash, rinse, repeat until you are becalmed.

sure the navigator adds value. And it generally pays to sail in a stronger more predictable field rather than cut corners. But this is not much related to the gribs vs synoptic chart discussion - if anything the synoptics have less detail useful for the routing process.

So, while the racers may have and use gribs and routing software, there are at least two examples of highly successful navigators who temper that with exactly what we are recommending - synoptic charts and forecasts from meteorologists.

I don't see in your point where they are tempering it with Synoptics, rather that is a lesson learned from experience. I happen to know stan personally, he would say that the gribs have improved immensely over the past 2 decades. I believe he would say that the skill (that is a term of art used in the met business) differential between gribs and human interpretation was large but is now quite narrow today. And I personally know the workflow of 3 of the best European at sea routers and none of them include Synoptics in their primary workflow. Yea, in particular, in situations they might grab one, but more often if they go outside the gribs it is to look at real time sat pictures.

again, for a cruiser, you can get value from all these approaches. I am not suggesting any are inherently 'wrong'. Some of them probably make more sense than others for a guy on a 30' boat.

.......

[Breaking Waves]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

Y
I see no sign whatsoever of the two cold fronts off the US East Coast, or of circulation around the deep Low over Newfoundland.
No sign of the gale now centered just 200 miles east of the DELMARVA that has southbound cruisers sitting behind Sandy Hook NJ waiting for it to clear. Not a peep.
No sign of the wind reversed below 30N due to the aforementioned cold fronts. Gribs are deficient. Is getting the wrong information better if it’s easier?

Really - have you had your eyesight checked recently? (said in good humor, not a jab)?



If you want the fronts to stand out more - you can look at cape plus rain or cloud cover - they usually starkly show any strong frontal activity.

both gfs and EU gribs are suggesting a near gale rather than a full gale, which might represent a difference vs how the NOAA interpreter wanted to present local conditions. But I looking at that grib would not be surprised to encounter periods of 35kts.

[wingssail]

Satellite photos! Oh yeah, we can also get them, and often do, over ssb/pactor.