Cost/Benefit Ratio of Offsoundings weather reports

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Are you saying that if he doesn’t get a source for GRIBs he’ll probably die on passage?

How about you Stu? Do you have SSB/Pactor and an Iridium, and AIS transceiver and a life raft and a backup life raft and a crash bulkhead near the bow of your boat and seal floatation chambers elsewhere in the boat and an EPIRB and PLB and a trysail and a hurricane jib and have you cut down you mast to help you deal with heavy weather? If not why not? What's your boat and your life worth to you?

I think you win today award for the most histrionic post.

Maybe this post comes in second on the daily most histrionic post awards.

Are you saying or promoting that you must have every conceivable safety item or you are not adequately prepared?
The fact is embarking on long offshore passages without the ability to obtain daily weather is foolish. The cost is reasonable and the benefit is obvious.

[donradcliffe]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Are you saying that if he doesn’t get a source for GRIBs he’ll probably die on passage?

How about you Stu? Do you have SSB/Pactor and an Iridium, and AIS transceiver and a life raft and a backup life raft and a crash bulkhead near the bow of your boat and seal floatation chambers elsewhere in the boat and an EPIRB and PLB and a trysail and a hurricane jib and have you cut down you mast to help you deal with heavy weather? If not why not? What's your boat and your life worth to you?

I think you win today award for the most histrionic post.

I think you win today award for the most ignorant post. The sea is not forgiving of fools. If you want to go out and experience really bad weather by yourself, go ahead. If you survive you will have material for an interesting book. The rest of us want to minimize the risk to boats (which may not belong to us) and crew members.

Forty years ago I left port into the teeth of a storm. I learned my lesson, and will never do it again.

[Adelie]

I see Don, anybody that doesn't believe exactly as you do is ignorant or a fool. What other things must I believe to not be ignorant or foolish?

What's the right type of boat? Full keel or is long keel with skeg rudder acceptable?
How about rigs? Do I really need to have a ketch rig not to be ignorant?
What's the shortest boat I should go so sea in? 40'? 50'?, 60'?

There's a long distance between leaving port during a storm and setting out with no satellite communications.

[donradcliffe]

My Uncle was aa bush pilot in Fairbanks, Alaska before there were satellites. He would get the best weather information available and head out. Six times he made it to his destination, but on the return trip the weather closed his home field out. He knew about where he was, but not enough to land without crashing. He was able to walk or crawl away from each crash (two of them were /DC3's). After the sixth crash, he decided he was not going to live much longer with this business model, came down to the lower 48, started his own companies and became a millionaire. Which is why I think the OP is an internet troll.

I set out on my circumnavigation without any satellite coms or grib files, but I did have a ham/SSB radio. I got Wfax where it was available, and I used Herb as a router when I had propagation. I have already related the stories of when Herb saved me a lot of grief in a strong cold front west of Easter Island, and when (on two separate occasions) he told me to reverse course to avoid a meteorological bomb near Bermuda.

Ignoring improved weather forecasting offshore is like refusing to get a covid vaccination. "My boat is strong" is like "my immune system is strong". Its not about absolutes, Adelie, its about playing the odds.

[Adelie]

You say it’s not about absolutes but you call posters that disagree with you foolish, ignorant or a troll.

[Adelie]

And honestly, he isn’t disagreeing you, he’s just asking questions in a way that makes it apparent he’s going to make up his own mind.

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

My Uncle was aa bush pilot in Fairbanks, Alaska before there were satellites. He would get the best weather information available and head out. Six times he made it to his destination, but on the return trip the weather closed his home field out. He knew about where he was, but not enough to land without crashing. He was able to walk or crawl away from each crash (two of them were /DC3's). After the sixth crash, he decided he was not going to live much longer with this business model, came down to the lower 48, started his own companies and became a millionaire. Which is why I think the OP is an internet troll.

I set out on my circumnavigation without any satellite coms or grib files, but I did have a ham/SSB radio. I got Wfax where it was available, and I used Herb as a router when I had propagation. I have already related the stories of when Herb saved me a lot of grief in a strong cold front west of Easter Island, and when (on two separate occasions) he told me to reverse course to avoid a meteorological bomb near Bermuda.

Ignoring improved weather forecasting offshore is like refusing to get a covid vaccination. "My boat is strong" is like "my immune system is strong". Its not about absolutes, Adelie, its about playing the odds.

I have addressed this already but hopefully this will be the last time. According to lifewire an internet troll is "In simple terms, trolling is when someone comments or responds to something you post, usually in a confrontational way that is designed to garner a strong, emotional reaction." 1. I started this discussion so by definition I am not a troll. 2. Many 5 star members here have responded to my original question with intelligent, rational, informative and helpful comments that are informed by reason and experience not emotion. 3. I never and will never use strong language, exclamation marks, uppercase, sarcasm, irony or other rhetorical devices designed to illicit emotion or express an emotionally charged opinion. 4. I am a new member at CR and value this technology as a useful way to gain practical experience from a community of experienced sailors. 5. One of the site moderators is part of this discussion and has repeatedly defended my questions as valid and an appropriate use of this group. 7. I am 59 years old. Married for 35 years with three university educated children. I am retired from several careers one of which is commercial aviation. Another is Education. I have a PhD. I built my own home. I own rental properties and a Cape Dory 30. I am a member of the OCC and the RYA. Gee whiz guys what type of credentials does a member need to have here to ask a question without being accused of trolling? I am not a troll but I sure think there are some flamers and roasters here.

[Adelie]

MM:

5-stars has no implication of experience or reputation, 5 stars means you’ve made more than 1,000 posts, good, bad & ugly.

If you go to a member’s profile thou can see how many times they have been thanked. Each box is 100 “Thanks” or fraction of 100. At some point they stop adding boxes and start changing the shade of green.

[Breaking Waves]

I might add a bit of extra granularity to my previous comment, just for discussion:

On-board weather information is most useful on N/S passages in the mid/higher passages.

N/S passages give you more leverage and options as the weather passes E/W - you can go in front or behind or slow down or speed up. If you are going e/W and the weather is going the same then you can do a bit of N/S routing adjustment but it is harder to make a significant distance from the center and speeding up/slowing down also works much less effectively.

In the Mid/higher latitudes there is more pressure gradient and the forecasts tend to show more and be more useful. In the tropics, there is usually relatively little pressure gradient differences and the differences are harder to read and interpret . . . short of a developing hurricane/cyclone where hopefully you are already out of the tropics.

You can get a significant amount of useful wether information with a simple all band radio (we had a nice sony for I think a little over $100) plus a laptop - you ca listen to various weather nets and get wefax pictures (and sat pictures with a bit more effort).

But we do have a few friends (this seems to be a kiwi thing) who enjoy going out of passage and just dealing with what happens and honestly, they have not died. You can tell quite a bit by looking at and understanding the clouds - often 48 hrs notice of events if you are good at this.

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

I might add a bit of extra granularity to my previous comment, just for discussion:

On-board weather information is most useful on N/S passages in the mid/higher passages.

N/S passages give you more leverage and options as the weather passes E/W - you can go in front or behind or slow down or speed up. If you are going e/W and the weather is going the same then you can do a bit of N/S routing adjustment but it is harder to make a significant distance from the center and speeding up/slowing down also works much less effectively.

In the Mid/higher latitudes there is more pressure gradient and the forecasts tend to show more and be more useful. In the tropics, there is usually relatively little pressure gradient differences and the differences are harder to read and interpret . . . short of a developing hurricane/cyclone where hopefully you are already out of the tropics.

You can get a significant amount of useful wether information with a simple all band radio (we had a nice sony for I think a little over $100) plus a laptop - you ca listen to various weather nets and get wefax pictures (and sat pictures with a bit more effort).

But we do have a few friends (this seems to be a kiwi thing) who enjoy going out of passage and just dealing with what happens and honestly, they have not died. You can tell quite a bit by looking at and understanding the clouds - often 48 hrs notice of events if you are good at this.

This is what my question was getting at. Part of the reason I and my wife are interested in sailing is to get away from the electronics that filled our careers now that we are retired. We will try to do this on the smallest boat possible. Right now it is a Cape Dory 30. Refitting for safe ocean travel has to be done prudently due to the size and displacement (10000lbs). SSB/Transmitter is pretty much out. Like the VHF/AIS/Transponder option. Epirb of course. Maybe personal ones on each of our Mustang vest/harnesses? Sextant yes. Paper charts yes. Chartplotter/Radar/Transducer of course. We sail in fog a lot. We are Mac users so need to find a MacOS SSB Receiver/ WeatherFax solution. The Iriduim/ SatPhone/Predictwind type of set up might be too online data intensive for us to achieve our desired state of unpluggedness. We are also debating the need/reliability of a dedicated auto inflate life raft versus a properly rigged hard dink with ditch bag and drogue. Please feel free to reach out to us in a PM. Your thoughts and experience are wonderful for us to have. Thank You

[Adelie]

Don’t write off AIS entirely, you can get a receive capability with a VHF.
https://www.standardhorizon.com/inde...7&DivisionID=3

For weatherfax to a Mac: https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ax-178767.html

Be careful about the shortwave you get, you probably need SSB capability and not all short waves do SSB

If you go with a hard dinghy, consider adding a DIY flotation collar using EPP cylinders (yoga foam rollers) inside Sunbrella.

Which CP30? Where were 4 models:
https://sailboatdata.com/sailboat?fi...rial&sort=name

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by Adelie

Are you saying that if he doesn’t get a source for GRIBs he’ll probably die on passage?

How about you Stu? Do you have SSB/Pactor and an Iridium, and AIS transceiver and a life raft and a backup life raft and a crash bulkhead near the bow of your boat and seal floatation chambers elsewhere in the boat and an EPIRB and PLB and a trysail and a hurricane jib and have you cut down you mast to help you deal with heavy weather? If not why not? What's your boat and your life worth to you?

I think you win today award for the most histrionic post.

I think you missed my intent entirely. Naw, maybe not, because you missed the entire message I wrote, entirely.

I posted three questions/comparisons with flying which was the OP's response to earlier comments, and noted I carefully said that the slower one went the more important the weather info.

In answer to your utterly ridiculous questions, "If not why not?" is because I have worked hard to avoid having to cut down my mast by using the very safety tools this thread discusses.

If I had a Catalina 355 instead of my early-version-of-the-355, a Catalina 34, yeah, sure I'd have that watertight bulkhead.

And no, I don't have "... SSB/Pactor and an Iridium, and AIS transceiver and a life raft and a backup life raft..." BECAUSE I AM A COASTAL CRUISER. If I went further afield, I would have to consider them, and would. Speaking of cost/benefit ratios!

I have been on this forum for a long time and have read and admired your posts in many conversations here, but this time you are comparing apples & oranges. I have repeatedly, over the course of those years, mentioned that I am NOT an offshore sailor.

I have, however, sailed my boat from San Francisco to British Columbia and have posted the lengthy log of that trip many times on this forum. On the way, in each and every harbor, before leaving for the next, I meticulously studied ALL OF THE WEATHER AND TIDE information available, from multiple sources. I had to deal with bars, wind, fuel availability and all the rest of the things that make a voyage such as mine, or any other for that matter as SAFE as possible.

The OP started out saying it wasn't worth it. Many of us disagreed, and I asked a question. For that you come down on me?!?

All of us are concerned about the OP's safety, that's all. Denial of sources of information makes no sense.

I used Windty and Predict Wind and noaa online and VHF daily. Daily. In addition to my own eyes and ears and talking to dock neighbors, harbormasters, and the the helpful fishermen. ALL of the RELEVANT SOURCES I could find.

I did that to avoid the last two sentences in Don's post, below. Just last week an acquaintance left Ganges Harbor on Saltspring Island headed for the San Juans across Haro Strait into the teeth of a howling gale!!! When asked about it, his reply was: "The VHF was chatting away in French and then English saying small craft warnings for 2 days, 70km gale force winds etc." My reply to him was: "Hey, John, I thought that's why they invented Windyty." He was too limited in his research to realize his VHF was telling him about the Strait of Georgia, not where he was or where he was going! He did not listen. He could have died (it was that nasty out there that afternoon) because he did not use US Wx channels, of course which are available right here across the border. Or look online at Windyty or the noaa online weather reports.

I worked harder and more conscientiously five years ago coming up the coast on essentially some long day sails than he did for his five hour trip that took him seven tortuous, dangerous hours of "stuff I'd never been out in before and don't want to ever do again."BTW, Windyty PREDICTED those winds. They also said they would significantly diminish in just a few hours. ALL HE HAD TO DO WAS WAIT. But nooooo, he left anyway. Blinking stupidity on his part. And sure enough,, just as predicted, the winds died as he neared his destination, tired, cold, beat up and alone. All for nothing.

Why the OP would deliberately neglect a source of critical and potentially life saving information is beyond me. That was the reason for my cost/benefit question to the OP in response to THEIR OWN request, i.e., in the title of this entire thread.

Too bad you missed my intent. I hope the OP doesn't.

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

To Adelie' post about mine: I think you win today award for the most ignorant post. The sea is not forgiving of fools. If you want to go out and experience really bad weather by yourself, go ahead. If you survive you will have material for an interesting book. The rest of us want to minimize the risk to boats (which may not belong to us) and crew members.

Forty years ago I left port into the teeth of a storm. I learned my lesson, and will never do it again.

Thanks, Don.

[Mara Mae]

1. Simrad VHF/AIS/Transmit

2. Read it and testing components. So far nogo.

3. Good idea for the sunbrella I am considering outriggers with pipe/barrels that contain ditch kit.

4. 1978 CD30c

[Mara Mae]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

I think you missed my intent entirely. Naw, maybe not, because you missed the entire message I wrote, entirely.

I posted three questions/comparisons with flying which was the OP's response to earlier comments, and noted I carefully said that the slower one went the more important the weather info.

In answer to your utterly ridiculous questions, "If not why not?" is because I have worked hard to avoid having to cut down my mast by using the very safety tools this thread discusses.

If I had a Catalina 355 instead of my early-version-of-the-355, a Catalina 34, yeah, sure I'd have that watertight bulkhead.

And no, I don't have "... SSB/Pactor and an Iridium, and AIS transceiver and a life raft and a backup life raft..." BECAUSE I AM A COASTAL CRUISER. If I went further afield, I would have to consider them, and would. Speaking of cost/benefit ratios!

I have been on this forum for a long time and have read and admired your posts in many conversations here, but this time you are comparing apples & oranges. I have repeatedly, over the course of those years, mentioned that I am NOT an offshore sailor.

I have, however, sailed my boat from San Francisco to British Columbia and have posted the lengthy log of that trip many times on this forum. On the way, in each and every harbor, before leaving for the next, I meticulously studied ALL OF THE WEATHER AND TIDE information available, from multiple sources. I had to deal with bars, wind, fuel availability and all the rest of the things that make a voyage such as mine, or any other for that matter as SAFE as possible.

The OP started out saying it wasn't worth it. Many of us disagreed, and I asked a question. For that you come down on me?!?

All of us are concerned about the OP's safety, that's all. Denial of sources of information makes no sense.

I used Windty and Predict Wind and noaa online and VHF daily. Daily. In addition to my own eyes and ears and talking to dock neighbors, harbormasters, and the the helpful fishermen. ALL of the RELEVANT SOURCES I could find.

I did that to avoid the last two sentences in Don's post, below. Just last week an acquaintance left Ganges Harbor on Saltspring Island headed for the San Juans across Haro Strait into the teeth of a howling gale!!! When asked about it, his reply was: "The VHF was chatting away in French and then English saying small craft warnings for 2 days, 70km gale force winds etc." My reply to him was: "Hey, John, I thought that's why they invented Windyty." He was too limited in his research to realize his VHF was telling him about the Strait of Georgia, not where he was or where he was going! He did not listen. He could have died (it was that nasty out there that afternoon) because he did not use US Wx channels, of course which are available right here across the border. Or look online at Windyty or the noaa online weather reports.

I worked harder and more conscientiously five years ago coming up the coast on essentially some long day sails than he did for his five hour trip that took him seven tortuous, dangerous hours of "stuff I'd never been out in before and don't want to ever do again."BTW, Windyty PREDICTED those winds. They also said they would significantly diminish in just a few hours. ALL HE HAD TO DO WAS WAIT. But nooooo, he left anyway. Blinking stupidity on his part. And sure enough,, just as predicted, the winds died as he neared his destination, tired, cold, beat up and alone. All for nothing.

Why the OP would deliberately neglect a source of critical and potentially life saving information is beyond me. That was the reason for my cost/benefit question to the OP in response to THEIR OWN request, i.e., in the title of this entire thread.

Too bad you missed my intent. I hope the OP doesn't.




Thanks, Don.

I am the OP and I think you express yourself with off-putting hyperbole that I tune out while waiting to hear from members--who have actually done what I am planning to do-- respond with practical knowledge and empirical data. Which is what I am looking for. I am not really that interested in uninformed/less informed opinion because I already have ready access to those. Since you are a coastal cruiser and I specified "offsoundings" in my title for this discussion, perhaps you should either tone down your rhetoric or refrain from commenting altogether since I am looking to mine data you do not possess.

[donradcliffe]

Originally Posted by Breaking Waves

But we do have a few friends (this seems to be a kiwi thing) who enjoy going out of passage and just dealing with what happens and honestly, they have not died. You can tell quite a bit by looking at and understanding the clouds - often 48 hrs notice of events if you are good at this.

A friend that recently died near the end of his passage in bad weather.

https://www.sail-world.com/news/2230...d-coast-1-dead