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02-05-2022, 09:34
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Back in Northern California working on the Ranch
Boat: Pearson 365 Sloop and 9' Fatty Knees.
Posts: 10,488
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay
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...and when it is all melted? Imagine a world with extreme decreased currents and most likely decreased winds.
__________________
"Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming: Wow - what a ride!"
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02-05-2022, 11:39
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#32
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 51,843
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
The World’s Winds Are Speeding Up
The trend contradicts earlier concerns of a “global stilling”
Wind is the prime driver of surface current velocities.
The main cause of wind is differential heating, or the difference in temperature, between different areas.
Wind is, undeniably, one of the most complicated elements, in the mass of interlinked climate variables, scientists must consider. It’s not surprising it has been set aside, in many assessments, often deemed too local, and intermittent, to be a significant factor in longer-term trends.
A 2019 study [1] published, in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that winds across much of North America, Europe, and Asia have been growing faster since about 2010.
In less than a decade, the global average wind speed has increased, from about 7 mph, to about 7.4 mph.
Before global wind speeds picked up, in about 2010, the average terrestrial wind speed decreased by 0.3 miles per hour, every decade, according to data starting in the 1960s.
Scientists floated a variety of theories about the "global stilling," as it came to be called. One of the most popular ideas suggested that increasing urban development, and other land-use changes, had altered the surface of the Earth, making it rougher and increasing the amount of drag, acting on the flow of air around the world.
But if that were the case, wind speeds should still be slowing down now — not speeding up. The recent reversal suggests that some other factor must be playing a bigger role.
The study [1] points to large, natural climate cycles as the likely culprit.
Using models, to investigate the factors that influence the behavior of global winds, the researchers found that big climate patterns, which affect temperatures in certain parts of the world, have a major influence on wind speeds. Temperature differences between neighboring regions, or between the ocean and nearby land areas, can affect the flow of air.
For instance, the researchers found that wind speeds tend to be slower across much of the Northern Hemisphere, when temperatures are warmer, in parts of the tropical Atlantic, and the western Pacific, and over Greenland.
Temperatures, all over the Earth, are steadily rising, as a result of human-caused climate change. But within that larger, long-term warming pattern, temperatures in these regions also tend to naturally cycle back and forth, between warmer and cooler periods, sometimes lasting decades at a time.
The authors of the study suggest that a shift, between certain natural climate cycles, may have helped trigger the switch, from slower to faster wind speeds.
If they're right, the speeding-up trend could continue for another decade or longer, until the next major shift occurs.
However, another 2019 review [2] noted “great uncertainties in long-term wind trends.”
Even with abundant data, the influence of the changing climate, on wind patterns, may be hard to discern. Winds respond to atmospheric forces, at many geographic, and time scales, driven in part by air temperature differentials over land and sea, as well as larger frontal systems.
Warmer water temperatures would be expected to decrease sea breezes, during spring and summer, as the contrast in temperature between land and ocean, during daytime, would be reduced.
Warming oceanic and atmospheric temperatures could affect daily variations in wind, which historically have led to relative calm periods, around sunrise and sunset.
Rapid melting of the Arctic Ocean could also factor in, potentially by altering the jet stream. Some scientists suggest that the jet stream is growing more wavy, leading to blocking patterns, that hold weather systems in place longer – with extended high-pressure systems maintaining clear, dry weather, interspersed with more intense, or persistent, wet periods.
More about : “Surface Wind Speed Change”
➥ https://www.climatesignals.org/clima...d-speed-change
[1] “A reversal in global terrestrial stilling and its implications for wind energy production” Zhenzhong Zeng et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0622-6
Full ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s415...icamerican.com
[2] “Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses” ~ by Jan Wohland et al
➥ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2018JD030083
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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06-05-2022, 11:08
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#33
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Marine Service Provider
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: Circumnavigator
Boat: Roberts V495
Posts: 479
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by JPA Cate
It would help to know which currents, where. Some charts show rates of flow in some places, but it would be so cool to hop on the escalator as it were, and take advantage of currents setting you towards where you want to go...
We do it on the east coast of Australia, where the EAC (East Australia Current) can run up to 3 knots southwards. It is a great assist headed from Qld to Tassie. It peters out after you leave the edge of the continent. However Bass and Banks Straits do offer currents to help you on your way, as well, or not, if you didn't pay attention!
Ann
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Predictwind’s professional package includes ocean current gribs…….used them to great advantage rounding Cape Horn & skimming by Guiana enroute to Carribbean……beyond catching the big boosts, identifying and dodging counter currents helps keep your passage speeds up.
- only trick is to minimize the area requested when at sea…..otherwise massive data download wouldn’t work. Could still see well ahead of the boat.
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06-05-2022, 12:28
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 31
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
There's one more aspect of anthropogenically induced inadvertent climate modification (aka "global warming') that may or may not be of interest ot the maritime community: the possibility that desalinization of the gulf stream may result in an interruption of its normal flow patterns.
If this occurs, more than one model predicts the rapid onset of another ice age.
Of course, if this is the outcome, we have more than earned it.
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06-05-2022, 12:54
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Eureka Springs, Arkansas
Boat: Hunter 27-2
Posts: 49
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Sounds like nobody REALLY knows what is causing it. The past 30 years I've seen science become so politicized that it's hard to tell what information comes from actual unbiased, objective scientists and what comes from science that is funded by ideologs. Most science is funded by large organizations now. I remember when it was called global warming, now it's called climate change. I guess in preparation for when the natural cycle starts going in the other direction.
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06-05-2022, 12:57
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: on our boat cruising the Bahamas and east coast
Boat: 2000 Catalina 470 #058
Posts: 1,342
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Jansen
There's one more aspect of anthropogenically induced inadvertent climate modification (aka "global warming') that may or may not be of interest ot the maritime community: the possibility that desalinization of the gulf stream may result in an interruption of its normal flow patterns.
If this occurs, more than one model predicts the rapid onset of another ice age.
Of course, if this is the outcome, we have more than earned it.
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Yep- everything is a cause and effect. No free lunch. However, doing nothing will surely result in our demise as traditional water sources are limited.
__________________
Sailing a Catalina 470; now retired
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06-05-2022, 13:19
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Good question
Boat: Rafiki 37
Posts: 14,661
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Jansen
There's one more aspect of anthropogenically induced inadvertent climate modification (aka "global warming') that may or may not be of interest ot the maritime community: the possibility that desalinization of the gulf stream may result in an interruption of its normal flow patterns.
If this occurs, more than one model predicts the rapid onset of another ice age.
Of course, if this is the outcome, we have more than earned it.
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Yes, I think the study I originally cited references this. It's important to note that the study indicates most, but not all, currents are increasing in speed. And some, like the Gulf (of Mexico) stream are being influenced by other mechanisms, such as the one you mention.
SeaRags, did you actually read the paper cited? The whole point is that the researchers have identified a previously non-understood (or perhaps poorly understood) mechanism which appears to be driving some or much of the current speed increases.
Regardless of cause, this measured change in many ocean currents is a significant issue for those of us who travel the world's waterways.
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06-05-2022, 13:32
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Back in Northern California working on the Ranch
Boat: Pearson 365 Sloop and 9' Fatty Knees.
Posts: 10,488
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaRags
Sounds like nobody REALLY knows what is causing it. The past 30 years I've seen science become so politicized that it's hard to tell what information comes from actual unbiased, objective scientists and what comes from science that is funded by ideologs. Most science is funded by large organizations now. I remember when it was called global warming, now it's called climate change. I guess in preparation for when the natural cycle starts going in the other direction.
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This is the kind of misinformation I hear all the time from the "Climate Deniers". This is because it is politicized. 99% of Climate Scientist believe in Human cause of Climate Change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scient...climate_change
Please show me exact proof from a non-right wing news source that these studies are funded by Ideologists (correct spelling).
Global Warming definition: a gradual increase in the overall temperature of the earth's atmosphere generally attributed to the greenhouse effect caused by increased levels of carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, and other pollutants.
Climate Change definition: a change in global or regional climate patterns, in particular a change apparent from the mid to late 20th century onwards and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the use of fossil fuels.
They are slightly two different phenomenons. Yet, both true. The reason for the emphases on the Climate Change terminology, I have spelled out below. However, it is my own opinion.
The science community had to battle with nay sayers because some farm boy in BF Iowa would say "Our winters are more cold, so it ain't globall worming". The fact is that oceans are slowly increasing in temperature.
Next, lets look at "in preparation for when the natural cycle". Ice ages occur every 100,000 years, plus or minus. The last one was 11,000 years ago...You know...just before Adam and Eve (my bad humor). That means we have about 89,000 more years to go.
This post took a whole 10 minutes of research on the internet.
__________________
"Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming: Wow - what a ride!"
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06-05-2022, 14:00
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#39
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Eureka Springs, Arkansas
Boat: Hunter 27-2
Posts: 49
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by Celestialsailor
This is the kind of misinformation I hear all the time from the "Climate Deniers". This is because it is politicized. 99% of Climate Scientist believe in Human cause of Climate Change. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scient...climate_change
Please show me exact proof from a non-right wing news source that these studies are funded by Ideologists (correct spelling).
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Meant to spell idealogues not ideologists. But anyway, I've been around long enough to see a lot of reverse courses in the science community. Speaking of ice ages, did humans cause those too? Are we the cause of the warming that may lead to the next ice age? I don't know, neither do you I suspect. I do like to hear others opinions and try to keep an open mind.
I'm not so much a climate denier as a "Climate Science Questioner" Don't all good science discoveries start with a questioning of existing beliefs?
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06-05-2022, 14:12
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#40
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: puget sound washington
Boat: 1968 Islander bahama 24 hull 182, 1963 columbia 29 defender. hull # 60
Posts: 13,100
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
To all well here is a challenge to change my mind
Find a global warming paper which
1) blames humans,
2) includes solar particles & imf,
3) uses all known forcing pathways ,
4) includes the weakening of thenearths magnetic field.
__________________
Non illigitamus carborundum
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06-05-2022, 14:13
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Back in Northern California working on the Ranch
Boat: Pearson 365 Sloop and 9' Fatty Knees.
Posts: 10,488
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaRags
Speaking of ice ages, did humans cause those too? Are we the cause of the warming that may lead to the next ice age?
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Although humans have been around for 300,000 years, they only industrialized for 300 years and like mentioned before...Ice ages happen approximately 100,000 years, not every 11,000 years.
Again, a few minutes of research for the information.
__________________
"Life is not a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well-preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming: Wow - what a ride!"
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06-05-2022, 14:21
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Eureka Springs, Arkansas
Boat: Hunter 27-2
Posts: 49
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by Celestialsailor
Although humans have been around for 300,000 years, they only industrialized for 300 years and like mentioned before...Ice ages happen approximately 100,000 years, not every 11,000 years.
Again, a few minutes of research for the information.
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Did your research include Wikipedia this time too?
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06-05-2022, 15:01
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#43
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 51,843
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaRags
Sounds like nobody REALLY knows what is causing it. The past 30 years I've seen science become so politicized that it's hard to tell what information comes from actual unbiased, objective scientists and what comes from science that is funded by ideologs. Most science is funded by large organizations now. I remember when it was called global warming, now it's called climate change. I guess in preparation for when the natural cycle starts going in the other direction.
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The term "Global Warming" is widely believed to have been coined in 1975, by Columbia University geochemist Wallace Broecker [1], according to NASA.
Until about the 1970s, scientists had a strong sense that human activity was changing the climate, but they debated whether the planet would get warmer, or colder. So they called it "inadvertent climate modification”.
Meanwhile, "Climate Change," appeared a few years later, in a 1979 National Academy of Science study, the ‘Charney Report’ [2], on carbon dioxide.
Scientists did not workshop the terms, with focus groups, or hire an ad agency to determine what words to use.
But there certainly were people who hired focus groups, and they had a very clear, non-scientific, partisan political aim in mind:
They [Republicans, not Democrats] wanted to downplay it.
In 2002, GOP strategist Frank Luntz sent a memo [3] to Republican candidates, to create an environmental strategy, suggesting that candidates express their “sincerity and concern” about the environment, but also to downplay concerns. Luntz said: “While global warming has catastrophic connotations attached to it, climate change suggests a more controllable and less emotional challenge.”
Whilst global warming may the most obvious change, in out climate, there are many others, including the subject of this discussion,' ocean current speeds & patterns', wind speeds & patterns, sea levels & acidification, changes in precipitation, glacier and sea ice melt, loss of biodiversity & habitat reorganization, changes infrequency/severity of extreme weather events, coral bleaching, and more.
Of course the climate is, and has always been changing. If the problem isn't human-caused warming, and detrimental to human interests, there isn't a problem. But it is, it is, and it is.
Hence, Anthropogenic Climate Change [ACC] is the more technically accurate description, of the general phenomenon.
In short, “Global Warming” refers to surface temperature increases, while “Climate Change” includes global warming and everything else [as above] that increasing greenhouse gas amounts will affect.
Of course, others may [and have] makean ideological interpretation, rather than a technically accurate one.
ACC has reached the status of accepted scientific theory [consensus], because of the converging lines of evidence, and because it not only fits the data, but is able to make correct predictions.
But, just because AGW is real, doesn't mean the conservative/Right] are wrong, politically. Recognizing a scientific reality, is not the same thing as handing a political victory to the liberal/Left.
Once enough of us agree on what the problem is, then we can talk about how to fix it, and actual solutions might be found.
However, if nothing can/could convince one to change their mind, their mind is empty, or closed.
[1] “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?” ~ by Wallace S. Broecker
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...e.189.4201.460
See also ➥ https://en.gariwo.net/editorials/climatic-change-are-we-on-the-brink-of-a-pronounced-global-warming-21445.html
[2] “Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment” ~ National Academy of Science [Charney et al]
➥ https://nap.nationalacademies.org/read/12181/chapter/1
[3] “2002 Memorandum to Bush White House, by GOP Consultant Frank Luntz”
This is the environmental portion of the memo that guided the Bush Administration on changing the issue of ‘Global Warming’ to a new and improved name, ‘Climate Change’.
➥ [ARCHIVE] 2002 Memorandum to Bush White House, by GOP Consultant Frank Luntz (17p) | Aviation Impact Reform
 I've written all this before [probably several times], and few [if any] appeared to have read it then, and I expect the same, this time
Perhaps I'm just "head banging" - but it feels good, when I stop.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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06-05-2022, 15:10
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Good question
Boat: Rafiki 37
Posts: 14,661
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeaRags
Speaking of ice ages, did humans cause those too? Are we the cause of the warming that may lead to the next ice age? I don't know, neither do you I suspect.
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Exactly right, we don't know, because none of us are climate scientists. But you know who DOES have a much better understanding of what is going on: Actual Climate Scientists.
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06-05-2022, 18:27
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#45
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Central Coast NSW Australia
Boat: Adams 13, 13.5m
Posts: 186
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Re: Climate change may be driving increases in many ocean current speeds
Increasing current strengths could be good news for passage times, but seriously bad news for those in stronger currents when gale force winds blow against those currents. Expect sea conditions to materially worsen!
__________________
Barry Lewis
sv Risky Business
Ausie yacht, in NZ, back to Australia next year
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