Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[cruising_ollie]

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/2020-...atters-records

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Cliffhanger

Hahaha. I love these topics, it really brings out the idiots who probably have never written a grant application in their lives and clearly have no idea how science works. "Fake science" is an oxymoron just like "alternative facts".

Perhaps we should just lock them all up in a big room, chuck in some smallpox virus and see what happens. My hypothesis is that they would be screaming out for a scientifically developed vaccine within 10 minutes. Now, I wonder if I could get a grant to run this experiment?

You can chuck me in a room with a smallpox virus any time you oymoron..
You really need to get out more..

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by boatman61

You can chuck me in a room with a smallpox virus any time you oymoron..
You really need to get out more..

Considering it's been, for all intents and purposes, extinct since the last century that could be somewhat problematic.

[Cliffhanger]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Considering it's been, for all intents and purposes, extinct since the last century that could be somewhat problematic.

Haha. True. Killed off by science.....You know, at first they laughed at Edward Jenner too.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Considering it's been, for all intents and purposes, extinct since the last century that could be somewhat problematic.

Seriously.???
Damn.!!! I miss all the fun.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by Cliffhanger

Haha. True. Killed off by science.....You know, at first they laughed at Edward Jenner too.

"They" probably laughed at Barry Marshall and Robin Warren as well.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Seriously.???
Damn.!!! I miss all the fun.

I guess if having horrible skin scars is your thing, assuming you survive of course, then you could always chase up this bloke for advice

[bstreep]

This topic is a waste of wind, me thinks. Changing minds is very difficult. Like politics and religion.

However, one MUST remember a couple of things:

1) The NHC has changed how they calculate surface level winds, from flight level winds. Dramatically. Hugely.

2) The NHC has changed the definition of Maximum Sustained Winds to 1 minute versus 10 minutes, which is the definition used for tropical cyclones by the rest of the world. This resulted in an average increase in the calculated wind speed of 14%.

Changing definitions without going back and redefining past storms is a bit like putting one's finger on the scale.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

I guess if having horrible skin scars is your thing, assuming you survive of course, then you could always chase up this bloke for advice

Seeing as I grew up in a land where smallpox was still rife till my early twenties I am quite aware of its effects..
Give up trying to tell your grandparents how to suck eggs..

[44'cruisingcat]

In Queensland, for 5 of the past 11 years we've been cruising, the BOM has predicted more cyclones than average. For 10 of the past 11 years there have been fewer than average. The other year was average.

Last cyclone season was supposed to be above average, but so far only one cyclone has crossed the coast.

You'd have to expect there's bound to be some above average years sometime soon! And no doubt, when it happens it'll be due to climate change....

[Montanan]

Sail the ocean blue. Stay away from the yellow or red zone during their seasons.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

"They" probably laughed at Barry Marshall and Robin Warren as well.

Indeed. It took about twenty years from their discovery of the bacterium 'Helicobacter pylori' as the chief cause of peptic ulcers, and their 2005 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine.
If Dr. Marshal is to be believed, it was primarily big Pharma that resisted their ideas.
➥ https://blog.inkl.com/blog/barry-mar...ylori-bacteria
➥ https://www.science.org.au/learning/...-pathologist#3


For context, sixteen years elapsed between Einstein’s miracle year publications, and the announcement of his Nobel prize.
The Nobel Prize in Physics 1921 was awarded to Albert Einstein "for his services to Theoretical Physics, and especially for his discovery of the law of the photoelectric effect."; which he published in 1905.
Scientists call 1905 Albert Einstein's annus mirabilis [his year of miracles]. Within a few months, Einstein wrote a series of papers that would transform the way we see the universe. They included his theory of special relativity and the famous equation E=mc².
The first paper described his particle theory of light, which became one of the foundations of modern physics.

[Tin Tin]

Who is the Einstein of climate change?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Tin Tin

Who is the Einstein of climate change?

Despite occasional major paradigm shifts [like Einstein’s 1905 publications], the majority of scientific insights, even unexpected insights, tend to emerge incrementally, as a result of repeated attempts to test hypotheses as thoroughly as possible. Therefore, because almost every new advance is based on the research and understanding that has gone before, science is cumulative, with useful features retained and non-useful features abandoned.

Therefore, I don’t think I could name a climate scientist as fundamentally revolutionary, in his impact, as Einstein was, in his day.

However, here’s a few leaders, prominent in the field of climate science:
Wallace S. Broecker
James E. Hansen
Syukuro Manabe
Michael E. Mann
John Francis Brake Mitchell
Veerabhadran Ramanathan
Susan Solomon
Tom M.L. Wigley
[John R. Christy, Judith A. Curry, Richard S. Lindzen]


As Albert Einstein said in response to a 1931 book, skeptical of relativity theory, entitled "100 Authors against Einstein":
“Why 100? If I were wrong, one would have been enough.”
At the height of the controversy, in 1920, Einstein wrote to a friend:
“This world is a strange madhouse. Currently, every coachman and every waiter is debating whether relativity theory is correct. Belief in this matter depends on political party affiliation.”
Einstein’s work was often accused of being un-German, and National Socialist ideology would soon be drawing a distinction between Jewish and Aryan mathematics. Although anti-Semitism plays no part in climate denial, “Jewish mathematics” served the same political function then , that the charge of “left-wing science” does in the climate debate today.
There's always a "conspiracy", to explain away the known facts, that don't suit us.

[Lateral Hazard]

Originally Posted by jmschmidt

Why so few in 2018, 2019 and 2020 compared to 2017?

That is weather, not climate. A common mistake. Weather is short term and climate is long term.