Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[mjscottinnc]

The consistently wrong predictions of a process as complex as weather along with the absoluteness of the statements shown here only goes the highlight the arrogance of the human race. The more you research the subject it becomes clear to a smart person how few absolutes there really are.

[laird]

Originally Posted by boatman61

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/poli...85660?mode=amp



There is nothing unusual about heavy rainfall in Cumbria; what is unprecedented is the refusal of the authorities to dredge the watercourses to carry it away.

It's also an issue on most if not all rivers , here in the east of England ,they stopped dredging the Nene on the tidal side ,used to be able to go all the way to Peterborough with a 5ft keel ,last I heard is that you get stuck now

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by laird

It's also an issue on most if not all rivers , here in the east of England ,they stopped dredging the Nene on the tidal side ,used to be able to go all the way to Peterborough with a 5ft keel ,last I heard is that you get stuck now

In the old days the stuff one dredged up was used to build up the banks.. however under EU judgement everything from silt to gravel is classified as waste so has to be removed and disposed of 'appropriately' elsewhere really jacking up the costs on any river/canal dredging project.
Some Councils have gotten volunteer groups to clear canals however in a flowing river this is not possible.
Logic will tell you that silt build up makes a waterway shallower and less able to tolerate overloads, spillover becomes a regular occurrence, but when have Mandarins ever applied logic to anything other than sequencing their order from a menu..

[SuW]

Originally Posted by mjscottinnc

The consistently wrong predictions of a process as complex as weather along with the absoluteness of the statements shown here only goes the highlight the arrogance of the human race. The more you research the subject it becomes clear to a smart person how few absolutes there really are.

I'd like to introduce you to a source of useful information for your next post:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...rmal_fallacies

Take care, dear.

[MicHughV]

Here in the State of Florida, dredging the ICW.....inter coastal waterway...falls under the jurisdiction of the USACOE....USA Army corps of Engineers and also the FDEP...Florida Dept. of Environmental Protection..and also various other guv'mint agencies...Fla. Dept of Natural Resources, etc, etc.

One would think that with all this guv'mint assistance, keeping the ICW dredged to it''s charted minimum depth, would be a simple matter. One would think all these different guv'mint entities would work together...ha ha ha.....silly me...

I'm here to tell you, it's not. It's a convoluted experience, requiring umpteen tests, permits, studies, investigations, etc. Dredging a mile of ICW can easily take upward of a year in permitting alone or longer. While this process continues along, the problems can, and do, escalate.

Once a permit has been obtained, the dredged material, ie, the "dredge spoil" has to find a new home. Not any home, and certainly not thrown on any banks, but taken to a specially prepared dyke system, often many miles from the job site. This site, known as a DMMA....Dredge Material Management Area"..requires it's own set of permitting and associated headaches.

Finally, the dredge spoil material must be removed in such a manner so as not to impact water quality, marine and bird life, etc...not to mention navigational impacts and certainly can't be a bother to area ICW residents......being able to see a dredger at work from your bathroom window is very disturbing for some people, often requiring therapy to get over the shock.

To add to the mix, Environmental groups can bring a project to a standstill.....an eagle's nest, etc....

These are all " manmade" agencies, ostensible brought into being to "save the planet",etc...

Yet, a hurricane requires no permits or permission from anyone to come ashore and wreak havoc on area waterways, marshes, cities, people, infrastructure...it can, and does, come ashore, when and where it wishes and can, and does, destroy anything and everything in it's path and doesn't have to say "I'm sorry" afterwards...and cheeky bastard that it is, it can come back the following week or year, and do it all over again.

Coastal residents perturbed about their seaside mansions, can, if allowed, build seawalls, another lengthy permit process, but can only do so, to a pre-determined height.
Again, hurricanes, care little for seawalls.

Man's battle against the elements is pretty futile from where I stand........making predictions in intensity and tracks is good for TV fodder, but little else. I have it on good authority, that hurricanes don't watch TV, and can neither read or write...they have always, and will always do as they damn well please.

[mjscottinnc]

Originally Posted by SuW

I'd like to introduce you to a source of useful information for your next post:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...rmal_fallacies



Take care, dear.

You are the living proof, chum

[SuW]

Originally Posted by mjscottinnc

You are the living proof, chum

Well, fancy!

Iirc, GordMay began this thread to inform us about changes to tropical cyclones. Some of us find it useful or interesting. Perhaps we can all agree it is interesting?

So, at intervals along come a motley crowd of gentlemen*, yes, fine examples of intellectual prowess, telling us that we are, as a group, ignorant, dishonest, worshippers of Ms. Thunberg, arrogant, stupid and so on.

Do you see a difficulty here? What exactly is bothering you about the thread? That is the question I cannot answer.

* No women do this, afaik. I think the pay is too low.

[mjscottinnc]

Originally Posted by SuW

Well, fancy!



Iirc, GordMay began this thread to inform us about changes to tropical cyclones. Some of us find it useful or interesting. Perhaps we can all agree it is interesting?



So, at intervals along come a motley crowd of gentlemen*, yes, fine examples of intellectual prowess, telling us that we are, as a group, ignorant, dishonest, worshippers of Ms. Thunberg, arrogant, stupid and so on.



Do you see a difficulty here? What exactly is bothering you about the thread? That is the question I cannot answer.



* No women do this, afaik. I think the pay is too low.

Alternate opinions just rocks your whole world don’t they. Well no matter, honesty and time will prove right from wrong. Best regards, continue on.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by SuW

Well, fancy!

Iirc, GordMay began this thread to inform us about changes to tropical cyclones. Some of us find it useful or interesting. Perhaps we can all agree it is interesting?

So, at intervals along come a motley crowd of gentlemen*, yes, fine examples of intellectual prowess, telling us that we are, as a group, ignorant, dishonest, worshippers of Ms. Thunberg, arrogant, stupid and so on.

Do you see a difficulty here? What exactly is bothering you about the thread? That is the question I cannot answer.

* No women do this, afaik. I think the pay is too low.

The thing is Intensity and Tracks change every year.. it just depends on the size of the butterfly in West Africa..

[SuW]

Originally Posted by mjscottinnc

Alternate opinions just rocks your whole world don’t they. Well no matter, honesty and time will prove right from wrong. Best regards, continue on.

Not at all. I'm genuinely interested in why so many men behave like this.

And, why people won't answer the question, "What if you're wrong?"
Could you be wrong?

I'm quite prepared to discuss things, as long as people don't cast aspersions on the motives of the others who are posting links and extracts from useful and credible sources.

[SuW]

Originally Posted by boatman61

The thing is Intensity and Tracks change every year.. it just depends on the size of the butterfly in West Africa..

[Citation needed]

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by SuW

I'd like to introduce you to a source of useful information for your next post:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...rmal_fallacies



Take care, dear.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/o...ae2c542258b28c

Wikipedia co-founder says site is now ‘propaganda’ for left-leaning ‘establishment’



'nuff said

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by SuW

[Citation needed]

“It began as most thing begin. Not on a dark and stormy night. Not foreshadowed by ominous here comes the villain music, dire warnings at the bottom of a teacup, or dread portents in the sky. It began small and innocuously, as most catastrophes do. A butterfly flaps its wings somewhere and the wind changes, and a warm front hits a cold front off the coast of western Africa and before you know it you've got an hurricane closing in. By the time anyone figured out the storm was coming, it was too late to do anything but batten down the hatches and exercise damage control.”
— Karen Marie Moning —

It occurs to me that the peculiarity of most things we think of as fragile is how tough they truly are. There were tricks we did with eggs, as children, to show how they were, in reality, tiny load-bearing marble halls; while the beat of the wings of a butterfly in the right place, we are told, can create a hurricane across an ocean. Hearts may break, but hearts are the toughest of muscles, able to pump for a lifetime, seventy times a minute, and scarcely falter along the way. Even dreams, the most delicate and intangible of things, can prove remarkable difficult to kill. — Neil Gaiman

[SuW]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

https://www.news.com.au/technology/o...ae2c542258b28c
Wikipedia co-founder says site is now ‘propaganda’ for left-leaning ‘establishment’
'nuff said

So is that an argument from authority or an ad hominem fallacy? Oh no! It's a fallacy of composition! Silly me.

In that vein, perhaps news.com.au isn't a particularly reliable source of reality-related news; the article is a reprint from the New York Post, both owned by News Corp and, from the article:

'“You can’t cite Fox News on sociopolitical issues. It’s just banned now,” he insisted of the apparent clampdown on respected conservative voices.'

(I don't doubt the fella said that but what relevance does it have to what I said?)

Poor, poor* Fox News. Also founded by the lovely, pouting Rupert Murdoch? Fancy that!

Personally, I use Wikipedia without worries; the list of informal fallacies is quite useful. You really should look at it more.

* Not really, profits of $3.1 billion US last year will console them for the insult.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by SuW

So is that an argument from authority or an ad hominem fallacy? Oh no! It's a fallacy of composition! Silly me.



In that vein, perhaps news.com.au isn't a particularly reliable source of reality-related news; the article is a reprint from the New York Post, both owned by News Corp and, from the article:



'“You can’t cite Fox News on sociopolitical issues. It’s just banned now,” he insisted of the apparent clampdown on respected conservative voices.'



(I don't doubt the fella said that but what relevance does it have to what I said?)



Poor, poor* Fox News. Also founded by the lovely, pouting Rupert Murdoch? Fancy that!



Personally, I use Wikipedia without worries; the list of informal fallacies is quite useful. You really should look at it more.



* Not really, profits of $3.1 billion US last year will console them for the insult.

If you're referring to your above diatribe, I would run with ad-hominem sprinkled with a hint of appeal to authority.