Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[SuW]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Meanwhile in Washington D.C. there is this innovative concept to mitigate against climate changes.

Congressman earnestly asks if the U.S. Forest Service can alter the Earth's orbit

I have to say, my engineer father (now deceased) was a huge admirer of American science and technology. He was sent from the UK to Bell Labs in the 1950s for some consultation or other, and ever afterwards he would say how incredible the people were and how advanced their work was...

[Montanan]

It would seem to be a handy solution to just incorporate a solar eclipse now and then to cool the earth. Maybe just during the heat waves of the summer months chasing the sun as it shift during the season between the north and south hemispheres. And only do such during the warmest time of the day.

Meanwhile in Montana there be this gathering of climate change non-deniers.

[SuW]

Originally Posted by Montanan

It would seem to be a handy solution to just incorporate a solar eclipse now and then to cool the earth. Maybe just during the heat waves of the summer months chasing the sun as it shift during the season between the north and south hemispheres. And only do such during the warmest time of the day.

Meanwhile in Montana there be this gathering of climate change non-deniers.

lol...yeah, Canadians also...still, it's a dry cold...

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by SuW

lol...yeah, Canadians also...still, it's a dry cold...

Canadians and Montanans share the same mid-winter mantra.

[GordMay]

Hurricane “Elsa” is the first hurricane to hit Barbados in more than 60 years
“Elsa” has already ripped off roofs, destroyed crops and downed trees and power lines in the eastern Caribbean on Friday, with damage reported in Barbados, Saint Lucia and in St Vincent and the Grenadines.
Authorities in Barbados said they received calls about families trapped in their homes, collapsed houses and power and water outages, but no reports of serious injuries or deaths.
Meanwhile, officials in St. Lucia said that 90% of power customers were without electricity at the height of the storm. Landslides, flooding and damaged homes also were reported. Authorities opened dozens of shelters in St. Vincent and urged people to evacuate if they lived near a valley, given the threat of flash flooding, mudslides and lahars, especially in the northern part of the island where La Soufrière volcano is located.

[Group9]

Originally Posted by jmschmidt

Why so few in 2018, 2019 and 2020 compared to 2017?

Trump's fault.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Hurricane “Elsa” is the first hurricane to hit Barbados in more than 60 years
“Elsa” has already ripped off roofs, destroyed crops and downed trees and power lines in the eastern Caribbean on Friday, with damage reported in Barbados, Saint Lucia and in St Vincent and the Grenadines.
Authorities in Barbados said they received calls about families trapped in their homes, collapsed houses and power and water outages, but no reports of serious injuries or deaths.
Meanwhile, officials in St. Lucia said that 90% of power customers were without electricity at the height of the storm. Landslides, flooding and damaged homes also were reported. Authorities opened dozens of shelters in St. Vincent and urged people to evacuate if they lived near a valley, given the threat of flash flooding, mudslides and lahars, especially in the northern part of the island where La Soufrière volcano is located.

60 years ago there was presumably less CO2 in the atmosphere, and less global avg temps. According to the science . . .

[Montanan]

An Italian glacier has been covered up to prevent melting

Experts say that approximately 70% of the snow can be saved over the summer season with the protective covering which basically works in the same way as a reflective window guard similar to those we would put on our dashboard to stop our cars overheating in the hot months.

The reflective strips are 5-metres-wide and 70-metres-long and are laid across the glacier. They reflect the solar radiation away from the glacier so the snow does not melt as much.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/italian-g...104953511.html

[Group9]

Originally Posted by Exile

60 years ago there was presumably less CO2 in the atmosphere, and less global avg temps. According to the science . . .

If you go back and look, you might be surprised at how many bad hurricanes there were before we even knew what petroleum was.

I was surprised to find that a Katrina level hurricane hit the Mississippi gulf coast in about the same place in 1691 or 1692. We know because the Spanish, who controlled the area at that time, kept such good records.

[GordMay]

Once hurricanes make landfall, they’re lingering longer and staying stronger

Over the past 50 years, increasingly warm ocean waters have juiced up the storms, giving them more staying power after they roar ashore, scientists report in the Nov. 12, 2020 Nature [1]. That could potentially extend storms’ destructive power farther inland, the researchers say.

Li and Chakraborty analyzed the intensity of historical Atlantic hurricanes, over the first 24 hours after landfall.
In 1967, a typical storm’s intensity decayed by 76 percent, within the first day after landfall.
But by 2018, storms were only 52 percent less intense, after 24 hours.
That trend, the researchers say, aligns with increasing sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, and the western Caribbean Sea.

That’s because the intense winds of cyclones feed on moisture and heat, picked up from the warm waters, and warmer air can also hold more moisture.
So as the oceans heat up, they not only add more moisture, making hurricanes rainier, but also add more heat.

[1] “Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world” ~ by Lin Li & Pinaki Chakraborty
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2867-7

[Scroll towards bottom, past References, for Extended data figures and tables]

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Group9

If you go back and look, you might be surprised at how many bad hurricanes there were before we even knew what petroleum was ...

Have you gone back and looked?
What, exactly, did you find? Sources?


While there have been extreme storms in the past, recent history reflects the growing expense of hurricanes. Four of the 10 costliest hurricanes on record in the United States occurred in 2017 and 2018. Hurricane Katrina (2005) remains the most expensive hurricane on record costing $168 billion (2020 dollars).

“Global Warming and Hurricanes”
An Overview of Current Research Results
➥ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-war...nd-hurricanes/

“Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones”
➥ https://news.sciencebrief.org/cyclones-mar2021/

However, some experts suggest that, based on careful examination of the Atlantic tropical storm database (HURDAT,) and on estimates of how many storms were likely missed in the past, it is likely that the increase in Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane frequency in HURDAT since the late-1800s, is primarily due to improved monitoring.

“Historical Changes in Atlantic Hurricane and Tropical Storms” ~ by Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson
➥ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/historical...storm-records/

“On Estimates of Historical North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity” ~ by GABRIELA. VECCHI AND THOMASR. KNUTSON NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey [2007]
➥ https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/wp-content...08_recount.pdf

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Group9

... I was surprised to find that a Katrina level hurricane hit the Mississippi gulf coast in about the same place in 1691 or 1692. We know because the Spanish, who controlled the area at that time, kept such good records.

I'd be interested in reading your source, for information about this hurricane.
I couldn't find any reference to it.
For instance:
List of Atlantic hurricanes in the 17th century
➥ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...e_17th_century

[boatman61]

Logic dictates that today's hurricanes will be more costly than yesteryear... greater development and infrastructure to damage and inflation..

The 1926 Miami hurricane, commonly called the "Great Miami" hurricane, was a large and intense tropical cyclone that devastated the Greater Miami area and caused extensive damage in the Bahamas and the U.S. Gulf Coast in September 1926, accruing a US$ 100 million damage toll.

[Sailmonkey]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Logic dictates that today's hurricanes will be more costly than yesteryear... greater development and infrastructure to damage and inflation..



.

How dare you logically assume that as costs go up, costs will go up.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Sailmonkey

How dare you logically assume that as costs go up, costs will go up.

Originally Posted by boatman61

Logic dictates that today's hurricanes will be more costly than yesteryear... greater development and infrastructure to damage and inflation...

You're both right, " the growing expense of hurricanes" was a poor choice of metrics: Comparing storm damage costs [past, present, & future] doesn't address storm intensity, nor frequency.
It does, however address human impact.