Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by hpeer

No it does not.

Over fishing is a sever problem in its own. The point being that colder water fish are being replaced with warmer water fish.

It is not just in Scotland.

I visited the Cote Nord of Quebec (Harrington Harbor) some years back. Had a nice ling chat with an elderly local gentleman and HE brought up warming. He noted that traditionally the island got its firewood over winter, across the water ice. Now they have to get it by rafting the wood out over water, and damn black flies.

Further South in Shelborne, NS a local gentleman told me how they built the granite wall that lines the water front. The rock was cut from a quarry in summer and hauled across the ice by oxen in winter. Now Shelborne is an an all year port. The little ice wont support granite blocks or oxen.

Nkw those are not “fish” stories.

When you go North the effects of climate change are more clear. The changes in tropics are small by comparison. But most folks live below 45° N and don’t feel the effects as much.

Well, I dunno. For one "creating National Parks and nature reserves" is something you do to protect the wildlife from humans, not climate. Secondly, anecdotal stories really don't say much in the big scheme of things - "One swallow doesn't make a spring", as "they" say.

[Montanan]

Blue spot on map reveals a warning for the climate

Interesting read, disconcerting data.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/blue-spot...163300213.html

[Exile]

Polar amplification of temps is a well-recognized occurrence within the science.

Back to the thread topic, and despite all this evidence of ocean warming -- data-driven and anecdotal -- apparently no causal connection has been scientifically established linking these higher temps to changes in tropical storms' intensity & track. Given how much we've been inundated with media reports to the contrary for so long, I'm surprised as anyone.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Exile

... apparently no causal connection has been scientifically established linking these higher temps to changes in tropical storms' intensity & track. Given how much we've been inundated with media reports to the contrary for so long, I'm surprised as anyone.

You appear to have missed the [3] scientific reports, with which I started this thread.
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3376641


Perhaps this article will be more to your liking:
'Study casts doubt on controversial theory linking melting Arctic to severe winter weather'
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3406844

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

You appear to have missed the [3] scientific reports, with which I started this thread.
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3376641

On the contrary, these reports (and others which followed) what I based my comment on. The causal connection is based on an assumption (about an amt. of future warming) that is itself not scientifically established. You have already acknowledged this, starting in post #8. The modeling has already proven itself inflated by 50% as compared to the satellite data. What makes you think the modeling hasn't also overestimated going forward?


Perhaps this article will be more to your liking:
'Study casts doubt on controversial theory linking melting Arctic to severe winter weather'
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3406844

It's not to my liking when people are manipulated into believing things about the science that fit personal & political agendas, but turn out not to be true. Among other things, it brings the actual science into disrepute.

[Montanan]

The many environmental challenges facing the world are far from evenly shared across regions. Of the 100 cities facing the greatest environmental risks, 99 are in Asia, according to a report published today by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. Meanwhile, Europe is home to 14 of the 20 safest cities.

https://www.maplecroft.com/insights/...lobal-ranking/

East Asian cities most exposed to natural hazards
The picture changes when looking solely at the impact of natural hazards and the exposure of economies, populations and transport infrastructure. Asia is still most at risk, but the cities are different. Topping the list are flood-prone Guangzhou and Dongguan, followed by Osaka, Tokyo and Shenzhen, which face a host of threats from earthquakes to typhoons.

[GordMay]

“Underwater Forces Can Increase Hurricane Intensity”
Previously undiscovered underwater currents can seriously increase the power of hurricanes, a new study shows [1], research which should make storm system forecasts more accurate in the future.

The findings were made through detailed measurements of the 2017 Category 5 storm Hurricane Maria, taken from a suite of subsurface oceanographic instruments. The analysis revealed interactions between ocean islands and the hurricane that fed the storm with more and more energy.

Researchers estimate that Hurricane Maria gained up to 65 percent more potential intensity because of the sloping shelf patterns of the island shorelines, which produced currents that strengthened and stabilized the different bands of temperature in the ocean.

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are one of the main factors controlling the energy in a hurricane, and in this case the records showed that waters around the coasts of the battered islands didn't cool down until at least 11 hours after Hurricane Maria had passed.
The stratification or layering of temperatures plays a big part in cooling rates, because it means warmer and cooler waters don't mix. The researchers' data showed how a warm layer of water was kept trapped by rising pressure underneath and strong ocean currents (produced by the hurricane winds) from above.

Underlying ocean temperature changes aren't currently factored into hurricane model simulations, but the researchers show that these shifts can control both the intensity and the direction of a storm system.

Human life and critical infrastructure can be better protected if people know what's coming, and as the planet warms up we're seeing more hurricanes of greater intensity – so experts need all the data they can get to better understand them.

More about:
“USGS Scientists Add Another Piece to Puzzle of How Hurricanes Can Gain Strength”
➥ https://www.usgs.gov/news/usgs-scien...ience_products

The study:
[1] “Rapid observations of ocean dynamics and stratification along a steep island coast during Hurricane María” ~ by Olivia M. Cheriton et al [May 12, 2021]
➥ https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/20/eabf1552

[Montanan]

Subtropical Storm Ana formed early Saturday morning, becoming the first named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This now marks the seventh year in a row in which at least one named storm has formed prior to the start of Atlantic hurricane season which officially begins June 1.

Tropical Storm Ana headed northeast of Bermuda and away from posing any threat to land Sunday, destined to dissipate in the Atlantic Ocean – but is a reminder nonetheless of the approaching hurricane season.

[GordMay]

“Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 – here’s what forecasters are watching right now” ~ by Kris Karnauskas
To get a sense of how bad the 2021 hurricane season will be, keep an eye on the African monsoon, ocean temperatures, and a possible late-blooming La Niña.
More ➥ https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science...hing-right-now

[GordMay]

Near- or below-normal 2021 hurricane season predicted for the Central Pacific
There is a 45% chance of near-normal tropical cyclone activity during the Central Pacific hurricane season this year, according to NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, divisions of the National Weather Service. The outlook also indicates a 35% chance for below-normal activity, and 20% chance of an above-normal season.
For the season as a whole, 2 to 5 tropical cyclones are predicted for the Central Pacific hurricane region. This number includes tropical depressions, named storms and hurricanes.
A near-normal season has 4 or 5 tropical cyclones.
“This year we will likely see less activity in the Central Pacific region compared to more active seasons,” said Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center. “Less activity is predicted since ocean temperatures are likely to be near- to below average in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean where hurricanes form, and because El Nino is not present to increase the activity.”
More ➥ https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/n...entral-pacific

[Montanan]

The implications of rising sea levels and storm surge are massive for southern Florida.

A 20-Foot Sea Wall? Miami Faces the Hard Choices of Climate Change.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/20-foot-s...120248771.html

[Montanan]

Meanwhile in the Med. they have problems with the formation of Sea Snot.

A thick, brown, bubbly foam dubbed "sea snot" has covered the shores of the Sea of Marmara, alarming Istanbul residents and threatening marine life. The naturally occurring mucilage was first documented in Turkey in 2007, when it was also seen in parts of the Aegean Sea near Greece. But this outbreak is the largest on record, blamed by experts on a combination of pollution and global warming, which speeds up the growth of algae responsible for the slimy sludge.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=msedgntp

[Seymore]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track


Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones

Thanks _very much for this, Gord May.

[SuW]

Originally Posted by Seymore

Thanks _very much for this, Gord May.

Hear, hear!

[Montanan]

Meanwhile in Washington D.C. there is this innovative concept to mitigate against climate changes.

Congressman earnestly asks if the U.S. Forest Service can alter the Earth's orbit

During a House Natural Resources Hearing with the U.S. Forest Service and the Bureau of Land Management, Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert (Republican) asked, apparently earnestly, if there was anything the two government agencies could do to combat global warming by changing "the course of the moon's orbit or the Earth's orbit around the sun?" He then stated that such an interstellar overhaul would obviously have "profound effects" on the Earth's climate. After a brief pause, the woman fielding Gohmert's question said she'll have to "follow up" with him on that. Well, if there happens to be anything the Forest Service or BLM could do, Gohmert said he would "like to know."



https://www.yahoo.com/news/gop-lawma...162632430.html