Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[Reefmagnet]

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropic...istory/tracks/



If you can see a "climate emergency" signature in that collection, you're doing well.

[GordMay]

I, for one, don't see an emergency in the charted Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone history.
Nor did I see an emergency, suggested by the numerous scientific papers, to which I previously linked.
Notwithstanding, there are emergent climate change problems, though not yet, specifically, one of cyclone frequency/intensity.

[Reefmagnet]

And yet this thread exists...

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

And yet this thread exists...

So does the joke thread[emoji849]

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

So does the joke thread[emoji849]

I thought it had become the Propaganda thread..

[sailorboy1]

You know what i learned 1 day ago on my trip from the Bahamas to the US, again?

The weather guys don't know crap!

[Exile]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

You know what i learned 1 day ago on my trip from the Bahamas to the US, again?

The weather guys don't know crap!

But the climate guys do. Just don't ask them. Instead, ask non-scientists who stand to gain from increased ratings, or are hoping to get re-elected to some office, or believe another alarming manifestation of CC on an internet forum comports with their personal politics. Some of these non-scientists will confidently tell you about climate emergencies and deride you as an "anti-science" denier if you disagree, whether the actual science agrees or not.

What a world . . . .

[B_Hunter45]

I an see the warming, much less snow in the winter, the snowmobile season is much shorter, spent less time in clearing snow. How does that impact storms? don't know. But the interesting thing is that those who claim to care about our planet and the climate change o nothing personally, they tell others to do. I want to see the politician that will pass a law against the huge private motor yachts that burn tons of fuel for no good reason, they tell us, the small guys to pay for the transition to sustainable energy production, but the fat cats keep burning fuel, so maybe it is not that bad?

[GordMay]

Thanks for your valuable contributions [Posts #139, 140, 141, 142, 143, & 144]. They’ve certainly helped clarify the scientific thinking on the subject matter, and helped to satisfy my curiosity on the subject[s].

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Thanks for your valuable contributions [Posts #139, 140, 141, 142, 143, & 144]. They’ve certainly helped clarify the scientific thinking on the subject matter, and helped to satisfy my curiosity on the subject[s].

I'll post this image again because it shows in tapatalk, but not on my desktop browser so maybe it doesn't show properly on other systems, too. As you can see, despite the vein of narrative coming from certain scientific circles, it appears, in fact, that the exact opposite is occurring.


site link here


Keeping in mind that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is about as pro climate change as it gets, even they can't bring themselves to say climate change has increased the frequency and/or severity of cyclones within their monitoring area of responsibility.

Analysis of historical tropical cyclone data has limitations due to changes in observing practices and technology that have occurred over time. With new and improved meteorological satellites our ability to detect tropical cyclones has improved, as has our ability to differentiate tropical cyclones from other tropical weather systems such as monsoon depressions, which in the past may have been incorrectly named as tropical cyclones. A particularly important change occurred in the late 1970s when regular satellite images became first available from geostationary satellites above the Earth's equator.
The time series of analysed tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region (south of the equator; 90-160°E) show that the total number of cyclones appears to have decreased. However, there was a change to the definition for tropical cyclones in 1978 which led to some systems which would previously have been classified as tropical cyclones instead being considered sub-tropical systems. This contributes somewhat to the apparent decline in total numbers.
The number of severe tropical cyclones is dominated by variability with periods of lower and higher frequencies of occurrence. There is less confidence in the earlier intensity data with continuous satellite coverage commencing in 1979.

[boatman61]

My limited experience/knowledge only shows to me that climate/weather events appear to go in cycles of 12 to 15yrs but modern life seemingly unable to focus longer than the next news bite this tends to go unnoticed by the greater media who's only interest is gaining more viewers by hyping any and all events.
Major cyclone and hurricane events happen every century as records show..
Christopher Columbus wrote the first record of a hurricane in 1494 when he described a storm that struck the island of Hispaniola. The first recorded hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland took place in August 1635 to the East of Virginia.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Thanks for your valuable contributions [Posts #139, 140, 141, 142, 143, & 144]. They’ve certainly helped clarify the scientific thinking on the subject matter, and helped to satisfy my curiosity on the subject[s].

We must all just be shills for the fossil fuel industry masquerading as mere sailors.

[GordMay]

CSU researchers predicting above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting 17 named storms this season, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes are rated Category 3 or higher, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an average Atlantic hurricane season sees about 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The likely absence of El Nino is a primary factor for the above-average activity. El Nino typically causes fewer hurricanes to develop, largely due to more vertical wind shear, which tears tropical systems apart. The atmosphere is also typically more stable during El Nino patterns.
Sea surface temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average, which supports more activity in the tropics.
The first name on the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season list is Ana, followed by Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry, etc.
The team predicts that 2021 hurricane activity will be about 140 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2020’s hurricane activity was about 170 percent of the average season.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
- 69% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
- 45% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
- 44% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
- 58% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)

The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 3, July 8 and Aug. 5.

More ➥ https://engr.source.colostate.edu/cs...ricane-season/

And ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

[Exile]

Originally Posted by GordMay

CSU researchers predicting above-average 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting 17 named storms this season, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

Major hurricanes are rated Category 3 or higher, on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an average Atlantic hurricane season sees about 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
The likely absence of El Nino is a primary factor for the above-average activity. El Nino typically causes fewer hurricanes to develop, largely due to more vertical wind shear, which tears tropical systems apart. The atmosphere is also typically more stable during El Nino patterns.
Sea surface temperatures are also expected to be warmer than average, which supports more activity in the tropics.
The first name on the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season list is Ana, followed by Bill, Claudette, Danny, Elsa, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry, etc.
The team predicts that 2021 hurricane activity will be about 140 percent of the average season. By comparison, 2020’s hurricane activity was about 170 percent of the average season.
The report also includes the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
- 69% for the entire U.S. coastline (average for the last century is 52%)
- 45% for the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula (average for the last century is 31%)
- 44% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville (average for the last century is 30%)
- 58% for the Caribbean (average for the last century is 42%)

The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 3, July 8 and Aug. 5.

More ➥ https://engr.source.colostate.edu/cs...ricane-season/

And ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Above average but less intense than 2020. (Likely) attributed to El Nino and not AGW. But wait for a completely different meme from the popular media should one or more of these storms make landfall this season.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Exile

Above average but less intense than 2020. (Likely) attributed to El Nino and not AGW [1]. But wait for a completely different meme from the popular media should one or more of these storms make landfall this season. [2]

[1] Yes, as the CSU team indicated [to both].
[2] That "popular media" editorial, should it come to pass,l might get posted the "In The News" thread, but THIS is a science-based thread.
Thanks for contributing.