My theory is that we’ll see a larger than normal dip in prices this fall and winter, a larger than normal spike in the spring, and then beyond that – who knows?
Why the dip? Newport Boat Show
starts in one week, Annapolis
in 4. People are going to be very reticent to buy with the devestation so fresh in their minds. New buyers will be skittish about jumping in. Buyers who lost
boats to the storm and want to replace them won’t be squared up with their insurers. Even buyers in the affected areas with strong stomachs and ready money
will not have infrastructure and services to support them.
The spike will come as infrastructure comes back online. Even if only a fraction of the destroyed boats get replaced, there will be a demand for clean, solid, unscathed boats once the buyers who won’t be deterred are confident enough to get back in the market.
The longer term uncertainty comes in with how long it takes (and whether) the devastated areas recover to what they once had been, and how insurers, boat builders, charter
companies react as this all gets sorted.