Avoiding bad weather

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by sneuman

Fatty Goodlander's
" We go through, on average, about four or five gales per year, only one of which is uncomfortable."

Well, Fattys chewin' the fat and in this line its full of it. 2009/2010 we sailed in the same neck of the woods as Fatty and Carolyn for almost a year and we, ie Wild Card and Sea Life never had one gale.

Why not?

Because we both sailed in the correct season!

The dates of seasonal weather windows are in many books and resources and everyone knows them but many abuse the 'rules'.

Yes there can still be storms any other time of the year but shorter and lower intensity, and of course Fattys right that we will all go through them.

However most are avoidable.

Look at the current situation: its 26th May and the Hurricane seaon in the Atlantic "starts" June 1st.
So where am I?
In Grenada, outside the general hurricane area. thats 4 days before I 'need' to be.
However not all cruisers do so! Grenada is empty at the moment. You could swing a cat in the Port Louis Marina and not hit a boat, but it will be full half an hour after the first storm goes through. So everyone is off playing the gambling game in a year the National Hurricane Center is predictiing "In its 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook issued today, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting an active or extremely active season this year." NOAA predicts active 2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Why are cruisers doing something quite insane by staying north in the hurricane belt during Hurricane Season???????????????????????????

Sail only in the right season.


Mark

[Kettlewell]

Sail only in the right season.
Mark

^^This^^

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Kettlewell

^^This^^

That's all very well but...
How do you know where the winds coming from....

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by boatman61

How do you know where the winds coming from....

wet finger in the air

[Kettlewell]

That's all very well but...
How do you know where the winds coming from.

Pilot Charts.

[sneuman]

My point wasn't that you shouldn't take advantage of pilot charts/known weather windows, forecasts, etc. My point was that all of that only minimizes one's chances of encountering bad weather -- it doesn't eliminate it. Typhoons/hurricanes happen out of season, for example.

[mrohr]

Yeah, the books and pilot charts are have major predictive value ,but remember the 6 foot man who drowned in a
river that was only 4 ft deep on average.

The farmer who feeds the chicken every day of its life,at last rings its neck;proving that a more refined view as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful to........................the chicken.

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by mrohr

Yeah, the books and pilot charts are have major predictive value ,but remember the 6 foot man who drowned in a
river that was only 4 ft deep on average.

The farmer who feeds the chicken every day of its life,at last rings its neck;proving that a more refined view as to the uniformity of nature would have been useful to........................the chicken.

If you're thinking of the man I'm thinking of, he didn't drown because of a storm. He got tangled in his anchor and didn't have a knife in his pocket.

[Wrong]

Originally Posted by sneuman

My point wasn't that you shouldn't take advantage of pilot charts/known weather windows, forecasts, etc. My point was that all of that only minimizes one's chances of encountering bad weather -- it doesn't eliminate it. Typhoons/hurricanes happen out of season, for example.

I think the word "minimizes" is overly optimistic. Reduces perhaps, but does not minimize your chance of encountering bad weather.

Your confidence level goes up the shorter the trip. But even then, it doesn't mean you won't encounter adverse, unexpected weather on the way.

My experience has taught me to expect the unexpected from day 1, even though what you expect is based upon everything you could gather about forecast weather says things will be good. Three days max. Beyond that on a long passage, you get what you get and do the best with it.