5 Days Into Hurricane Season

[capngeo]

Only 25 more names to go!

Meet Andrea:

[zeehag]

andrea that used to be barbara.......you guys havent the head start you usually have..is ours this year.....
hunker down and stay dry...

[SV Demeter]

We're anchored in Christmas cove off STT and I'm looking at weather maps. I see on the NOAA synoptic charts a tropical wave on its way and due this weekend. What I'm curious about is why this wave does not seem to show up on the GFS models. I'm looking at passage weather and I dont see wave on the pressure, precip, or wind charts. Is this another case of computer generated forecasts (gribs) missing stuff like fronts?

[Tingum]

Bat Poop! Only 6 more months of nail chewing!

[barnakiel]

Ocean water is very warm this year. You will see heat pools off Africa, in Mexican bay, as well as across the isthmus on the Pacific side (I think they are at letter C? already).

On the other hand, air is way cooler than in earlier years - Europe still half frozen in and we are not too warm here in Canaries either.

On the second thought the above will actually make things worse (?)

Will be an interesting wx year I say.

b.

[zeehag]

pacific side began tropical weather in mid may, a susual. we sent you guys one. we have tropical waves a lot sans weather...

[SV Demeter]

Zee that's Interesting to hear that you get tropical waves with no associated weather. I always thought these waves brought low pressure, rain squalls and maybe some wind.

[zeehag]

in barra we are close enough to the monsoonal trough that we see no difference but a trend to lower barometric pressures for the summer, with extreme changes when formations try to happen--anything over 30 percent chance seems to make a difference in wind speed here.
we have more wind speed and weather changes with land mass heating and associated wind changes daily than with formations offshore. all those do is change the direction of the winds we see daily.
but i am at lat 18. not in carib or gom. our storms MOSTLY head to open ocean until august-oct when they turn toward land