Cruisers Forum
 


Closed Thread
  This discussion is proudly sponsored by:
Please support our sponsors and let them know you heard about their products on Cruisers Forums. Advertise Here
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 21-01-2025, 10:54   #46
Registered User

Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 558
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

The consensus among scientists that climate change is real and human caused is > 99%
///////////////////////////////


Pretty sure this has been debunked more than a decade ago.
Eder is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 11:04   #47
Registered User

Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: San Francisco
Boat: Morgan 382
Posts: 3,675
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eder View Post
The consensus among scientists that climate change is real and human caused is > 99%
///////////////////////////////


Pretty sure this has been debunked more than a decade ago.
"Pretty sure"? Do you have any support for that claim, or is it hearsay from a climate denier? There are are overwhelming studies that count the consensus and find ~99% and higher.

From ChatGPT:

Key Studies Supporting the Consensus

Cook et al. (2013):

Published in Environmental Research Letters, this study analyzed nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change from 1991 to 2011.
Of the papers that stated a position on the cause of climate change, 97.1% agreed that humans are the primary cause.
This study has been widely cited and remains a cornerstone in climate consensus research.


Oreskes (2004):

Published in Science, this study reviewed nearly 1,000 abstracts from peer-reviewed climate papers published between 1993 and 2003.
It found no papers rejecting the consensus on human-caused climate change.


Anderegg et al. (2010):

Published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), this study evaluated the credentials and expertise of climate scientists.
It found that 97-98% of climate experts most actively publishing in the field support the consensus on human-caused climate change.
Powell (2019):

This study reviewed nearly 12,000 peer-reviewed papers published from 2013 to 2014.
The consensus was found to be 99.94%, with only a negligible fraction dissenting.


Lynas et al. (2021):

Published in Environmental Research Letters, this study reviewed over 88,000 climate-related papers.
It found that over 99% of papers affirm the scientific consensus that climate change is real and primarily caused by humans.
__________________
-Warren
wholybee is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 11:09   #48
Registered User
 
senormechanico's Avatar

Join Date: Aug 2003
Boat: Dragonfly 1000 trimaran
Posts: 7,277
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by hpeer View Post
Iron E

I can assure these threads are not designed.

Again, please return to the topic.



imho, they are designed to increase post count to impress advertisers, thus increasing advertising $$ intake.
__________________
'You only live once, but if you do it right, once is enough.

Mae West
senormechanico is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 11:26   #49
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Spain
Boat: 1983 Shannon 28
Posts: 656
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by wholybee View Post
You practically disprove yourself. If you look hard enough, of course you can find a scientist here and there that is a sceptic of human caused climate change. But those sceptics are outnumbered by 100:1. So, if you are going to stick with their reasoning, you better have a compelling reason to do so.

You admit that this is beyond your scientific knowledge. You make an observation of a tiny part of the globe on a tiny time scale and translate that to a global trend over many decades. And the quote from your scientist suggests that starting in 2020 we should be entering a cooling phase, but that was not the case, and the 4 years since then were the hottest on record, not even average, but hot and getting hotter.

To give an idea of how strong the consensus among scientist is:
The consensus among scientists that smoking causes lung cancer is > 95%
The consensus among scientists that climate change is real and human caused is > 99%

If you are going to go against that consensus, you really need more than the 1 in 100 scientist that made a prediction that turned out to be wrong.
I have made no claims in my post, thus there is nothing that I have disproved myself of. I have simply noted that there are other scientists who have different views on the mechanisms of climate change forcing who have made radically different climate predictions based on their views. And I provided an example of one such scientist whose views I personally do not disregard for my own particular reasons, one of which is my impression of the weather patterns in my cruising area.

To be clear, what Professor Zharkova only said is that the process of the reduction of the solar magnetic field started in 2020 and she makes no reference to temperature. As for whether or not global temperatures have risen in the past few years, suffice to say, is a subject much debated here and elsewhere, so I won't go into it again in this thread.

As for your claim about the 97% or 99% consensus, I will only repeat what I have said in another thread. These claims are false and dishonest. If you have the curiosity to test your own beliefs and assumptions, I encourage you to read the linked article below. It is just one of many on this topic.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/02/...limate-change/
Greg K is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 12:24   #50
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Spain
Boat: 1983 Shannon 28
Posts: 656
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Just to expand my point regarding the work of other scientists. In addition to Prof Zharkova, Professors Svensmark (Denmark) and Shaviv ( Israel) have collaborated on studies of cloud formation and cosmic particles as forcing mechanisms of climate change. Their theories are also quite interesting to read and ponder for any of you who are not yet completely propagandanized into the co2 caused global warming scare mongering.

Here is a link to one of their papers in Nature Communications: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02082-2

Bottom line: while there seems to be little agreement between scientists on the cause of climate change, there is a shared belief that manmade co2 is most certainly not the cause....at least among those scientists who are not on the IPCC gravy train.
Greg K is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 14:15   #51
CLOD
 
sailorboy1's Avatar

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: being planted in Jacksonville Fl
Boat: none
Posts: 20,832
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

These threads can really reinforce ones Ignore List
__________________
Don't ask a bunch of unknown forum people if it is OK to do something on YOUR boat. It is your boat, do what you want!
sailorboy1 is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 15:27   #52
Registered User

Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 8,005
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Florida Winter Storm WARNING.

Snow angels on the beaches.

Now if only Florida had hills one could go tobogganing and sledding.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis said on X yesterday: "Dangerously cold temperatures are being felt across North Florida this week, with possibilities of snow and black ice. "At my direction, @FLSERT is monitoring this system closely, and @MyFDOT is on standby with snow plows and other equipment for road and bridge safety needs. "Please stay attentive to weather conditions and safety alerts from local and state officials. Also, please be careful in icy conditions, especially on the roadways."

NWS Jacksonville said on X: "Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for all of SE, GA and a portion of interior NE, FL. Reminder that forecast values can and will change as the system comes into better focus of the next 18 to 24 hrs."

Meteorologist Ryan Maue said on X: "Folks in Pensacola Beach, Florida, will be running their snow blowers later on Tuesday as heavy snow drifts across their driveways. 4"-6" locally more."


This must be when they make frozen orange juice.
Montanan is offline   Reply
Old 21-01-2025, 15:48   #53
Registered User

Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Spain
Boat: 1983 Shannon 28
Posts: 656
re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by sailorboy1 View Post
These threads can really reinforce ones Ignore List
Yet here you are
Greg K is offline   Reply
Closed Thread

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Winter Weather Outlook [2024 - 2025] GordMay Weather | Gear, Reports and Resources 1 28-10-2024 05:22
Weather Prediction Books Nateman The Library 16 02-08-2011 17:59
Tidal Prediction Website GordMay The Library 0 05-03-2006 06:42
Free Tide Prediction GordMay Navigation 2 04-10-2005 06:39

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 05:50.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.