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20-01-2025, 11:53
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2020
Location: SoCal
Boat: 35' Alden Design Cutter
Posts: 682
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg K
You might start by asking yourself that very question.
Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter.
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These threads are designed to be confrontational.
Proclamations of the new gospel with chicken little overtones, as close to rage baiting as possible.
The word science is used synonymously with the words "facts," and any non-believer is branded a denier heretic.
Someone who truly trusts their (science) perspective is less likely to see alternative opinions as a threat and more as an opportunity to refine and grow their thinking.
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20-01-2025, 14:28
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#32
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Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Between Caribbean and Canada
Boat: Murray 33-Chouette & Pape Steelmaid-44-Safara-both steel cutters
Posts: 8,919
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Greg,
The topic of the thread concerns climate change.
Please stay on topic.
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20-01-2025, 14:31
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#33
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Moderator

Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Between Caribbean and Canada
Boat: Murray 33-Chouette & Pape Steelmaid-44-Safara-both steel cutters
Posts: 8,919
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Iron E
I can assure these threads are not designed.
Again, please return to the topic.
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20-01-2025, 15:03
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 8,005
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Being on topic.
The Data Difference: Advances in Marine Weather Forecasting
PredictWind is embracing artificial intelligence and Starlink to create features that dramatically improve weather forecasting.
By Kim Kavin
May 21, 2024
Reference link:
https://www.cruisingworld.com/gear/advances-in-marine-weather-forecasting/
Snipets:
"More than 1 million cruising boaters are now using PredictWind, a weather-*forecasting service created in 2010 by competitive sailor Jon Bilger. He founded the company after serving as weather manager for teams who won the America’s Cup in 2003 and 2007, when he realized that the higher-end technology could be a boon to the cruising public."
PredictCurrent covers tidal currents for 90 percent of the world’s coastlines, he says. The level of detail and accuracy is best within 90 kilometers (about 55 miles) of the coast, but there is also information about currents as far as 600 kilometers (nearly 375 miles) offshore.
. . .
Another new product from PredictWind is called Over the Horizon AIS. Typically, Bilger says, a cruising boater can receive an AIS signal within just a few miles of an oncoming hazard such as a container ship. Over the Horizon AIS gathers information from the AIS worldwide and customizes it for use by individual cruising boats through the PredictWind DataHub smart device.
“It can download the data every minute with a Starlink connection, and it shows vessels out to about 300 nautical miles,” Bilger says. “If you have a container ship barreling at you, maybe you have about eight minutes to take evasive action. We can give you something more like eight hours.”
. . .
The amount of data coursing through PredictWind’s DataHub, coupled with artificial-*intelligence analysis, can create things such as polars for a specific boat.
. . .
These “AI polars,” as Bilger calls them, represent the performance of a boat in different wind and wave conditions—information that can be critical for weather routing.
“Normally, you select from a predefined list of polars for all the boat types, and then there’s a velocity-prediction program that shows the ideal speed of your boat in perfect conditions,” he says. “But that’s not reality. That’s not how you sail a boat. With the DataHub, it’s reporting your windspeed, your direction, and it averages that data. It sends it back to our service and compares it. Over time, it will learn how you sail the boat, and you’ll even have a different set of polars for daytime and nighttime.”
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20-01-2025, 15:04
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#35
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Channel Islands, CA
Boat: 1962 Columbia 29 MK 1 #37
Posts: 15,350
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
I appreciate the links and information Gord posts, though I admit I don't understand it all. The data does help lead to certain conclusions. Of course the data does not tell us what WILL happen, just what is LIKELY to happen. That is what I am interested in. We can skip the debate on who or what is causing it.
Purely anecdotally, it is interesting for me to see how La Nina likely set up the recent conditions that led to the hurricane force offshore winds in southern California. Just watching the highs and lows meandering off the west coast here must have meteorolgists scrambling, but they got the winds right that we are feeling today again. Things are stationary now and farther out it doesn't look good for any precipitation this next month or two unless we get lucky with another atmospheric river.
__________________
DL
Pythagoras
1962 Columbia 29 MKI #37
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20-01-2025, 15:34
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 8,005
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
HOT TOPIC!
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
9 January 2025
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).
La Niña conditions emerged in December 2024 and were reflected in below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly indices were -0.7°C in Niño-3.4 and -0.6°C in Niño-4, with values close to zero in Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 [Fig. 2]. Subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific Ocean strengthened significantly [Fig. 3], with below-average temperatures dominating the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and central Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the central and eastern Pacific. Convection was suppressed over the Date Line and was enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were positive. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system indicated La Niña conditions.
The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak La Niña during the winter seasons, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts slightly cooler SST anomalies with La Niña persisting through February-April 2025. The forecast team favors the NMME guidance, predicting weak La Niña conditions through the early spring before transitioning to ENSO-neutral. Weak La Niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance; [Fig. 7]).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 13 February 2025.
To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740
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20-01-2025, 15:56
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 8,005
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Outlook February, March, April 2025.
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20-01-2025, 16:02
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#38
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 8,005
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Prediction for February 2:
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20-01-2025, 19:42
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#39
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CLOD
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: being planted in Jacksonville Fl
Boat: none
Posts: 20,832
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
It was HOT last Summer. It has been cold this Winter and going to snow tomorrow.
This is Florida.
__________________
Don't ask a bunch of unknown forum people if it is OK to do something on YOUR boat. It is your boat, do what you want!
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20-01-2025, 23:00
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#40
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Channel Islands, CA
Boat: 1962 Columbia 29 MK 1 #37
Posts: 15,350
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by sailorboy1
It was HOT last Summer. It has been cold this Winter and going to snow tomorrow.
This is Florida.
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Higher than normal air pressure over the arctic during a "negative phase" of the Arctic Oscillation with its more meandering jet stream is what is happening:
https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...ic-oscillation
__________________
DL
Pythagoras
1962 Columbia 29 MKI #37
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21-01-2025, 01:54
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#41
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 51,861
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by hpeer
The topic of the thread concerns climate change.
Please stay on topic.
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I'd suggest otherwise, and refer you to the thread's title, [2025] 'Climate PREDICTION'.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"
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21-01-2025, 08:20
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#42
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CLOD
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: being planted in Jacksonville Fl
Boat: none
Posts: 20,832
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Don C L
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I think it has to do with a magnetic like attraction of the cold for Canadians and this indicates Florida has exceeded its' Canadian limit.
__________________
Don't ask a bunch of unknown forum people if it is OK to do something on YOUR boat. It is your boat, do what you want!
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21-01-2025, 09:01
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2019
Location: Spain
Boat: 1983 Shannon 28
Posts: 656
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay
2025 Climate Prediction:
The UK “Met Office outlook for 2025" suggests that it is likely to be one of the three warmest years for global average temperature, with global average temperatures around ± 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, falling in line just behind 2024 and 2023.
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I would suggest that Professor Adam Scaife, the author of the Met office report, and his team have been on the climate warming gravy train for most of their careers.
Without repeating my critical view of the theory of human caused co2 warming or disparaging a man who like the rest of us has to make a living, I will just say that there are other scientists making quite different climate predictions.
One of those scientists is Valentina Zharkova who, like Professor Scaife, is also a physicist, as well as a mathematician. No doubt some of you are familiar with her work, but for those who aren't, you may find it quite chilling to learn that her prediction is rather opposite of the Met report for the next few years and out to 2053.
Personally, I do not disregard what she say partially because the argument she makes is beyond my scientific knowledge, and partially because from personal experience it is my impression that the summers here on the Med coast of Spain have become shorter and cooler in the past few years. Last year, notably, the real med summer came rather late, was not particularly hot and ended early marked by the DANA event which arrived in the Balearics two weeks earlier than normal and wrecked havoc on the cruising fleet at anchor.
Here is a snippet of Professor Zharkova's prediction:
This discovery of double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum 1, when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%. This period has started in the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. During this modern grand minimum, one would expect to see a reduction of the average terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C, especially, during the periods of solar minima between the cycles 25–26 and 26–27, e.g. in the decade 2031–2043.
Full article: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...1796243#d1e302
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21-01-2025, 09:39
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: San Francisco
Boat: Morgan 382
Posts: 3,675
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg K
I would suggest that Professor Adam Scaife, the author of the Met office report, and his team have been on the climate warming gravy train for most of their careers.
Without repeating my critical view of the theory of human caused co2 warming or disparaging a man who like the rest of us has to make a living, I will just say that there are other scientists making quite different climate predictions.
One of those scientists is Valentina Zharkova who, like Professor Scaife, is also a physicist, as well as a mathematician. No doubt some of you are familiar with her work, but for those who aren't, you may find it quite chilling to learn that her prediction is rather opposite of the Met report for the next few years and out to 2053.
Personally, I do not disregard what she say partially because the argument she makes is beyond my scientific knowledge, and partially because from personal experience it is my impression that the summers here on the Med coast of Spain have become shorter and cooler in the past few years. Last year, notably, the real med summer came rather late, was not particularly hot and ended early marked by the DANA event which arrived in the Balearics two weeks earlier than normal and wrecked havoc on the cruising fleet at anchor.
Here is a snippet of Professor Zharkova's prediction:
This discovery of double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum 1, when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%. This period has started in the Sun in 2020 and will last until 2053. During this modern grand minimum, one would expect to see a reduction of the average terrestrial temperature by up to 1.0°C, especially, during the periods of solar minima between the cycles 25–26 and 26–27, e.g. in the decade 2031–2043.
Full article: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full...1796243#d1e302
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You practically disprove yourself. If you look hard enough, of course you can find a scientist here and there that is a sceptic of human caused climate change. But those sceptics are outnumbered by 100:1. So, if you are going to stick with their reasoning, you better have a compelling reason to do so.
You admit that this is beyond your scientific knowledge. You make an observation of a tiny part of the globe on a tiny time scale and translate that to a global trend over many decades. And the quote from your scientist suggests that starting in 2020 we should be entering a cooling phase, but that was not the case, and the 4 years since then were the hottest on record, not even average, but hot and getting hotter.
To give an idea of how strong the consensus among scientist is:
The consensus among scientists that smoking causes lung cancer is > 95%
The consensus among scientists that climate change is real and human caused is > 99%
If you are going to go against that consensus, you really need more than the 1 in 100 scientist that made a prediction that turned out to be wrong.
__________________
-Warren
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21-01-2025, 10:10
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#45
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Senior Cruiser

Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: PORTUGAL
Posts: 31,297
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction
I seem to recall a doctor saying "Washing hands saves lives" and he proved it in his hospital drastically cutting the death rate.
Everyone else (doctors/surgeons) mocked and dismissed him, one going as far has tricking him into visiting a sanatorium where he was siezed and put in a straitjacket, sadly he was severely beaten by the guards and died.
His hospital then reverted to 'normal practice' and the death rate climbed.
1 in 100.???
__________________

You can't oppress a people for so many decades and have them say.. "I Love You.. ".
"It is better to die standing proud, than to live a lifetime on ones knees.."
Self Defence is no excuse for Genocide...
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