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Old 18-01-2025, 13:47   #16
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
This subject has almost NOTHING to do with sailing...
the appearance of El Niño/La Niña has considerable importance to those crossing oceans, and in particular the Pacific.
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Old 18-01-2025, 17:47   #17
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
This subject has almost NOTHING to do with sailing...
I disagree, this year's climate predictions are of serious interest to those who are out there cruising or planning to be.

What is not of interest (IMO) is the considerable angsty argy bargy between those who wish to deny [insert POV of choice] and bash those who hold conflicting opinions. By all means challenge another person' opinion (courteously), remembering we are all entitled to our own opinion although we are not entitled to make up our own facts. Try to make the distinction!


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the appearance of El Niño/La Niña has considerable importance to those crossing oceans, and in particular the Pacific.
^^
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Old 19-01-2025, 09:31   #18
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Listening to the replies it strikes me that ee are talking past one another.

Weather predictions are short term (days)and rather narrow in focus, lots of lical detail.

Climate predictions are vastly longer term (centuries) and of much greater scale.

Frankly I question the use of either Weather or Climate in describing the subject predictions. They seem to fall into some netherland between the two. Perhaps “Mid-Range Climatic Patterns”?

Weather is of obvious daily use to the cruiser. These “Mid-Range” assessments are used by insurance companies at least in assessing their risk. I can see them as being valuable to folks who are planning cruising trips or selecting cruising grounds or even lay up yards. The true Climatic predictions are of interest to those of us cruisers who find a connection with Earth and want to see how things are. Not everyone shares this desire, that is OK, just skip over the topic.

I do find it baffling why some find being alerted to a bit if information find that alert unreasonable. I (used to) read the news papers and they always had a column relating the horse race results. I hate horse racing, zero interest and find it cruel and stupid. But I never felt compelled to write to the newspaper and object about its printing the info. I just skipped it.
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Old 19-01-2025, 11:12   #19
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

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Originally Posted by Wotname View Post
... we are all entitled to our own opinion although we are not entitled to make up our own facts. Try to make the distinction!
That old, worn cliche has little value other than to stifle debate when what comprises fact is in itself subject to opinion.
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Old 19-01-2025, 11:28   #20
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

A pedantic response that does not further the discussion. Try is merely seeking argument.

Not in line with the polite tone of conversation we are seeking to encourage.
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Old 19-01-2025, 13:19   #21
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
This subject has almost NOTHING to do with sailing...
Nonsense! Sailing depends on wind. Wind is created by the juxtaposition of hot and cold air masses. Will anyone dispute the masses of hot air in this forum?
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Old 19-01-2025, 14:50   #22
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

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Originally Posted by Sun and Moon View Post
Nonsense! Sailing depends on wind. Wind is created by the juxtaposition of hot and cold air masses. Will anyone dispute the masses of hot air in this forum?
I would suggest that you are talking about weather not climate, but I do agree about the masses of hot air in this forum
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Old 19-01-2025, 15:22   #23
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

I predict no matter what happens the UN will claim the earth is on fire and NOAA will claim 2025 the hottest year ever.


Other than that I have no opinion.
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Old 19-01-2025, 20:26   #24
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by senormechanico View Post
This subject has almost NOTHING to do with sailing...
Yet in reccurs here all the time with same players and same general posts and always goes afoul. Yet it is still allowed.
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Old 20-01-2025, 04:38   #25
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

The 2024 hurricane season wasn’t just busy. It was somewhat extraordinary.
In 2024, 18 named storms formed, with 11 becoming hurricanes, and five strengthening into major [Cat 3+] hurricanes.
An average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
So, simply based on previous activity numbers, the 2025 hurricane season will likely be at, or above, average.

Right now, the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, known as El Niño, has just ended, and temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are steadily declining, with the onset of the La Niña phase.*

Scientists declare a La Niña when the average ocean temperature [Oceanic Niño Index, ONI], in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, drops by at least 0.5 °C, for at least three consecutive months. The greater the temperature difference, the stronger the weather patterns that ensue.
However, a transition to ENSO-neutral is likely [60% chance according to the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center/CPC], during March-May of 2025.

During a La Niña, the eastern Pacific hurricane season tends to be quiet, while the Atlantic season ramps up; with more tropical storms, and hurricanes, and more major hurricanes, as well.

The hurricane activity, in a given season, often reflects a combination of the multi-decadal signals [Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, AMO], and ENSO [El Niño-N-La Niña].


During an Atlantic AMO high-activity era, El Niño typically results in a near-normal season, and La Niña produces an above-normal season.
During an Atlantic AMO low-activity era, El Niño typically results in a below-normal season, and La Niña results in a near-normal season.

Similarly for the central and eastern Pacific basins, the combination of a low-activity era and El Niño often produces a near-normal season, while La Niña produces a below-normal season. For a Pacific high-activity era, El Niño often produces an above-normal season, while La Niña produces a near-normal season.

Simply put, El Niño favours stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin.
Conversely, La Niña suppresses hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and enhances it in the Atlantic basin.

These impacts are primarily caused by changes in the vertical wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000-35,000 ft. above the ground. Strong vertical wind shear can rip a developing hurricane apart, or even prevent it from forming.

During La Niña, the area of tropical convection, and its Hadley circulation, is retracted westward, to the western Pacific and Indonesia, and the equatorial Walker circulation is enhanced. Convection is typically absent, across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.

In the upper atmosphere, these conditions produce an amplified trough, over the subtropical Pacific, in the area north of the suppressed convection, and a downstream ridge over the Caribbean Sea, and western tropical Atlantic.
Over the central and eastern subtropical Pacific, the enhanced trough is associated with stronger upper-level winds, and stronger vertical wind shear, which suppress hurricane activity.
Over the Atlantic basin, the anomalous upper-level ridge is associated with weaker upper- and lower- level winds, both of which reduce the vertical wind shear, and increased hurricane activity.
La Niña also favours increased Atlantic hurricane activity, by decreasing the amount of sinking motion, and During La Niña, the area of tropical convection, and its Hadley circulation, is retracted westward to the western Pacific, and Indonesia, and the equatorial Walker circulation is enhanced. Convection is typically absent across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.

In the upper atmosphere, these conditions produce an amplified trough over the subtropical Pacific, in the area north of the suppressed convection, and a downstream ridge over the Caribbean Sea, and western tropical Atlantic.
Over the central and eastern subtropical Pacific, the enhanced trough is associated with stronger upper-level winds, and stronger vertical wind shear, which suppress hurricane activity.
Over the Atlantic basin, the anomalous upper-level ridge is associated with weaker upper- and lower- level winds, both of which reduce the vertical wind shear, and increased hurricane activity.
La Niña also favors increased Atlantic hurricane activity, by decreasing the amount of sinking motion, and decreasing the atmospheric stability.

Another prominent climate factor to influence Atlantic hurricane activity is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation [AMO].
The warm phase of the AMO is associated with high-activity eras, for Atlantic hurricanes.
Conversely, the cold phase of the AMO is associated with low-activity eras.
The warm phase of the AMO reflects warmer SSTs, across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region [MDR].
A key atmospheric feature of this pattern is a stronger West African monsoon, which produces a westward extension of the upper-level easterly winds [near 35,000 ft], along with weaker easterly trade winds, in the lower atmosphere [near 5,000 ft].

This wind pattern is very conducive to increased Atlantic hurricane activity, partly because it results in weaker vertical wind shear. The weaker trade winds also contribute to a more conducive structure [increased cyclonic shear] of the mid-level [near 10,000 ft] African Easterly Jet [AEJ], favouring hurricane development, from tropical cloud systems [easterly waves], moving westward from Africa. At the same time, these wind patterns are associated with a more northward push, into the MDR, of deep tropical moisture, and unstable air, each of which also favours stronger hurricanes.


* “ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions” ~ NOAA-NCEP (Jan 19, 2025) ➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf
And ➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...y/ensodisc.pdf
Quote:
Summary:
La Niña conditions are present.
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below-average in the central
and east-central Pacific Ocean.
La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59%
chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance)...”
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Old 20-01-2025, 04:58   #26
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

For those that like data:

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product
NCEP global forecasts, Reynolds weekly sea surface temperature, and GOES-East, GOES-West, MTSAT-1R and Meteosat-7 channel-3 (water vapor) imagery are used as input to an algorithm to estimate the probability of tropical cyclone formation within 500km of each grid point within the next 48 hours 45 S to 45 N and 0 to 360 E. The product domain is divided into 7 main basins [N. & S. Atlantic, N. E. & W. Pacific, N. & S. Indian Ocean], based on satellite coverage and warning agency boundaries.
Atlantic Basin https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Sea Surface Temperatures https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

Atlantic SST Anomaly https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.png
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Old 20-01-2025, 08:36   #27
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg K View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wotname
... we are all entitled to our own opinion although we are not entitled to make up our own facts. Try to make the distinction!
That old, worn cliche has little value other than to stifle debate when what comprises fact is in itself subject to opinion.
Claiming that facts are not facts, attacking the messengers, is of course the backup plan when the facts are not on your side.

I acknowledge that we are now dwelling in the age of peak alternative facts, and reality is currently a bit unpopular.
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Old 20-01-2025, 09:30   #28
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

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Claiming that facts are not facts, attacking the messengers, is of course the backup plan when the facts are not on your side.

I acknowledge that we are now dwelling in the age of peak alternative facts, and reality is currently a bit unpopular.
With all due respect and mandatory politeness, I do think you got that completely wrong. Claiming that facts are not facts and attacking the messengers is precisely what the fact checkers used to do when the facts were contrary to the agenda driven, prescribed narratives.

Unfortunately for you, they all lost their jobs on the major social platforms, thus making your YOUR reality currently a bit unpopular.
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Old 20-01-2025, 10:32   #29
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

This is simply remedied by presenting facts. Or citing data, or anecdotal observations.

We all know that there are a lot of sore egos over this topic. Constant reminders are tiresome and detrimental to the thread.

It is possible that 2 different people can hold differing interpretations without insulting one another.
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Old 20-01-2025, 11:15   #30
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re: 2025 Weather Prediction

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It is possible that 2 different people can hold differing interpretations without insulting one another.
You might start by asking yourself that very question.

Pedantic is an insulting word used to describe someone who annoys others by correcting small errors, caring too much about minor details, or emphasizing their own expertise especially in some narrow or boring subject matter.
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