2025 Climate Prediction:

[GordMay]

2025 Climate Prediction:
The UK “Met Office outlook for 2025" suggests that it is likely to be one of the three warmest years for global average temperature, with global average temperatures around ± 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, falling in line just behind 2024 and 2023.

2024 is expected to be the warmest year on record, now almost certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, for the first time. This follows on from the record-breaking 1.45°C in 2023, the previous warmest year on record.

The El Niño weather pattern, which had a warming effect on 2023 and 2024, has waned; and although the Pacific is expected* to shift to a cooler La Niña phase, 2025 is still expected to see average global temperatures well above anything seen before 2023.

The average global temperature for 2025 is forecast to be between 1.29°C, and 1.53°C (with a central estimate of 1.41°C) above the average, for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).

This would make 2024 the twelfth year in succession, that temperatures will have reached at least 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels.

“2025 outlook: in top three warmest years on record” ~ by Grahame Madge, for the UK Met Office
➥ https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-u...rature-outlook

* “EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION” ~ issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)/NCEP/NWS [12 December 2024]
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

Originally Posted by CPC

“La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 ➛ January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance)...”

The IRI ENSO forecasts show a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions during the forecast period, with just one three-month period during Dec-Feb, 2025, when La Nina has slightly more chance than ENSO-neutral.



“Approaching 1.5 °C: how will we know we’ve reached this crucial warming mark?” ~ by Richard A. Betts et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-03775-z

Climate Dashboard ➥ https://climate.metoffice.cloud/current_warming.html

“Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update” [Target years: 2024 and 2024-2028] ~ by WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION [WMO]
➥ https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.u..._2024-2028.pdf

Originally Posted by WMO

“The global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 ispredicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900...
... The 2023-24 El Niño has peaked and is likely to transition towards a La Niña during 2024...
... The predicted conditions in the North Atlantic for May-September 2024-2028 indicate above average tropical cyclone activity ...”

[Island Time O25]

I believe more appropriate phrase would be "weather prediction". Climate is more about long term results by definition.

[hpeer]

Well, we are clearly looking at long term trends.

When I look at “weather” I am looking at local conditions for a short period. I find that 3 days is about the limit for fairly reliable weather forecasting. Over that you get pretty dodgy pretty quick. Yes there is some value in looking at 5 and 7 day forecasts but I limit that to potential storm systems, big events not “weather”.

I find ut helps to look at both GFS and ECMF, easily done in Windy. Even at 3 days there can be significant variations in “weather” e.g. will it rain? Sunny?

[GordMay]

“EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION” ~ issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
➥ https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pro...ensodisc.shtml

Originally Posted by CPC

“La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance). ..”

“ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions” ~ NOAA
➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-fcsts-web.pdf

Originally Posted by NOAA

“La Niña conditions are present ...”

“January 2025 update: La Niña is here” ~ by Emily Becker, of NOAA’s ENSO blog team - NOT NOAA Itself
➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...e-la-nina-here

[rls8r]

Like Mark Twain said,

"Climate is what we expect; weather is what we get."

[Tillikum]

My 2025 Climate prediction: targeted funding will continue to produce "science" to order, people will continue to predict the imminent collapse of the stratosphere and the sun will keep on shining a little more or a little less.

15 pages and and suddenly too much common sense and first hand information and poof, the thread gets closed: https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3965446

[Greg K]

And so the game of Whack-a-mole starts again. Wonder how long before the censors (aka moderators) shut this one down as well...

Ok, I'll play: After the unreliable, fear mongering Covid deaths predictions of Neil Ferguson (Imperial College London) no predictions about anything coming from any UK government aligned agency, including the Met office can be trusted.

And let's not forget that many of the scandalous email messages from the Climategate leak scandal some 15 years ago showing leading climate scientists colluding with each other on how to manipulate the data and prevent dissenters from publishing their work... mostly came from the University of East Anglia.... yes, the UK, again.

If you haven't heard of this scandal, have a look here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/11/...gate-turns-15/

[JPA Cate]

This thread has been made a "hot topic". A disparaging term has been edited out of one post already. Please keep your discussion polite and do not indulge in denigrating, or inflammatory terms.

Ann
JPA Cate, moderator

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Tillikum

15 pages and and suddenly too much common sense and first hand information and poof, the thread gets closed: https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3965446

I might be wrong here, but I believe that last thread got flagged for one poster's unique view of the perceived sexual orientation of LA fire personnel. Pro-tip: ...really? Someone needs to be told to not be a complete d0uche online?

Gord May, respect bro, you're fighting on the side of the angels, but it seems here it's just casting pearls before [recalcitrant closed-minded older white guys]. But given the current demographics of cruising, it's safe for the majority of us to reject the climate crisis. The majority of us are some combination of older and wealthy that we will never experience the worst effects. We can afford to hide or relocate as places become inhospitable, and we'll be dead before the worst effects manifest. Kind of sux for our kids and grandkids though.

Ann, my sympathies and respect for your efforts. The topic of the climate crisis seems hopeless on CF; perhaps it would be better to put the lid back on it.

[Tillikum]

IMHO there are far too many of these threads and posts by certain persons effectively doing little more than attempting to propagandize on a subject which is unrelated to boats and cruising and really has no place on this forum.


Or would the moderators would like to create a subsection specifically devoted to such off-topic matters where the gullible and the true-believers can enjoy their mutual admiration without the boring the rest of us?

[JPA Cate]

Or would the moderators would like to create a subsection specifically devoted to such off-topic matters where the gullible and the true-believers can enjoy their mutual admiration without the boring the rest of us?

The moderators' job here is to enforce CF's posting rules, by which every one of the members agrees to abide. Rudeness is forbidden here. The expectation is that posters self-censor, use the Report Post button, and/or put the thread on ignore; or go talk about these things how they like, anywhere other than CF.

The pattern in threads relative to climate change has been to digress into politics, whereupon the polemics of polarized points of view erupts. Then, either the thread is closed, or sanctions given, deletions made, and the thread continues.

Sometimes we just have to accept that we live in a world that has aspects we don't like, that won't change points of view, based on our clicking or typing.

Ann

[senormechanico]

This subject has almost NOTHING to do with sailing...

[rls8r]

Originally Posted by senormechanico

This subject has almost NOTHING to do with sailing...

I don't know ... I think that these threads are what we choose to make of them.

We can choose to debate the underlying premise of climate change/global warming, argue about its cause(s), and throw shade on those who have opinions that differ from our own.

Or - we can talk about how El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) may affect rainfall patterns and general weather conditions in the Pacific (where many of us cruise) and perhaps expand that to discuss potential changes in the Gulf Stream (and AMOC) that can cause different weather/climate patterns in the North Atlantic (again, where many of us cruise).

The marketing intro to Jimmy Cornell's World Cruising Routes mentions how it "assesses the consequences of climate change on sailing routes." So - apparently Jimmy Cornell (arguably a highly respected voice in the world of cruising) can find constructive things to talk about related to climate matters and cruising.

It's up to us to make what we can of GordMay's postings - and to use them as I suspect he means them to be used ... as seeds for interesting and respectful discussions regarding cruising. If one cannot come up with a way to contribute to that kind of discussion perhaps it's time to simply shrug and move on.

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by rls8r

I don't know ... I think that these threads are what we choose to make of them.

We can choose to debate the underlying premise of climate change/global warming, argue about its cause(s), and throw shade on those who have opinions that differ from our own.

Or - we can talk about how El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) may affect rainfall patterns and general weather conditions in the Pacific (where many of us cruise) and perhaps expand that to discuss potential changes in the Gulf Stream (and AMOC) that can cause different weather/climate patterns in the North Atlantic (again, where many of us cruise).

The marketing intro to Jimmy Cornell's World Cruising Routes mentions how it "assesses the consequences of climate change on sailing routes." So - apparently Jimmy Cornell (arguably a highly respected voice in the world of cruising) can find constructive things to talk about related to climate matters and cruising.

It's up to us to make what we can of GordMay's postings - and to use them as I suspect he means them to be used ... as seeds for interesting and respectful discussions regarding cruising. If one cannot come up with a way to contribute to that kind of discussion perhaps it's time to simply shrug and move on.

Speaking as a moderator I’d say this is exactly what we’d like to see as well.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

This thread has been made a "hot topic". A disparaging term has been edited out of one post already. Please keep your discussion polite and do not indulge in denigrating, or inflammatory terms.

Ann
JPA Cate, moderator

Hi Ann, Thank you for moderating; greatly appreciate your efforts and that of the other volunteer moderators of CruisersForum.

Unfortunately, sometimes certain people's play nice button is broken but their bite me button is working just fine.


Nota bene: Please play nice or stay out of the sandbox.

Geez, can't believe I feel compelled to write that.

Oh yeah, wishing all a Happy New Year, may your voyages be joyful.