2022 Hurricane Forecasts
These 2022
hurricane season forecasts provide a range of views and forecasts, for the 2022 hurricane season, from leading meteorologists.
The four
forecast teams I have data on so far are: the Colorado State University tropical forecasting team (CSU) led by Phil Klotzbach and industry-backed; the also
insurance and reinsurance industry supported Tropical Storm Risks (TSR); well-known
weather forecaster Accuweather; and private
forecast specialists WeatherBell.
The CSU forecast team calls for: 19 named storms; 9 hurricanes; 4 major hurricanes; ACE
* of 160.
CSU [April 7] ➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html
CSU will issue hurricane forecast updates on June 2, July 7 and Aug. 4, 2022.
The TSR forecast team calls for: 18 named storms; 8 hurricanes; 4 major hurricanes; ACE of 138.
TSR [April 6] ➥ https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
The Accuweather forecast calls for: 16 to 20 named storms; 6 to 8 hurricanes; and 3 to 5 major hurricanes.
AccuWeather [March 30] ➥ https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...recast/1164507
The WeatherBell forecast calls for: 18 to 22 named storms; 6 to 10 hurricanes; 2 to 4 major hurricanes; ACE of 140 to 180.
WeatherBell [March 7] ➥ https://www.weatherbell.com/prelimin...eason-forecast
NOAA NHC Active Tropical Cyclones ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/
With the mean of these 2022 hurricane season forecasts being 19 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, that is above both the near and long-term historical averages.
* ACE Index = Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index = Sum of the squares of 6-hourly maximum sustained
wind speeds (in units of knots) for all systems while they are at least tropical storm strength. ACE unit = [10^4] x [knots^2].
In early April, experts indicated a weakening trend in the current La Niña, with a likelihood the globe would enter an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral state in the summer.
“Current weak La Niña conditions look fairly likely to transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall,” said state
research scientists at Colorado State University.
However, La Niña isn't showing signs of slowing down, as anticipated. [1 & 2]
This may have major implications for the Atlantic seaboard, during the upcoming hurricane season, that was already forecast to be above-average.
The latest ENSO forecasts
[1 & 2] suggest a 59% chance of La Niña being dominant through to August, and a 50% to 55% chance it remains right through to Autumn 2022.
Hurricane seasons are thought to be more active in a La Niña year, although how this affects
steering of storms remains to be seen based on conditions at the time.
But with La Niña associated with a reduction in
wind shear across areas close to the United States, it is thought hurricanes can make landfall more readily during a period of La Niña conditions
There’s also a tendency for more hurricanes in the Atlantic, as the vertical wind shear is lower, and the atmosphere is more unstable. In contrast, there are fewer hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, due to stronger wind shear.
[1] “EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ~ issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International
Research Institute for Climate and Society, 14 April 2022
Quote:
... ““The change in the consensus forecast is slightly favouring the continuation of La Niña.
La Niña is favored to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer (59% chance during June-August 2022), with a 50-55% chance through the Fall. This month, the forecaster consensus predicts Niño-3.4 index values to weaken into the summer but remain below the threshold of La Niña” ...
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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...Ocean%20%5BFig.
[2] “April 2022 La Niña update: measuring up” ~ by Emily Becker
Quote:
... “La Niña continues in the tropical Pacific, with both the ocean and atmosphere clearly reflecting La Niña conditions. The current forecast favors the continuation of La Niña through the summer (59% chance), with a slightly lower chance into the fall (50-55% chance). A third-year La Niña would be pretty unusual—we’ve only seen two others since 1950.” ...
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https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...date-measuring