2020 Hurricane Season

[barnakiel]

It feels as if there is quite a lot going on.


We may be enjoying a very active early season in the Caribbean:


https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurri...-mexico/750223


Also a mean post-tropical thing hit Western OZ not too long ago.


And there was yet again an ST nastiness in the SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ...


Anecdotically, Southern Atlantic systems seems to have quadrupled ever since Brazilian Navy started tracking them ... ;-)


Cheers,
b.

[jimbunyard]

Well, for fellow northern Gulf of Mexico dwellers, Cristobal, roughly 100 miles inland, is currently influencing an area of about 280,000 square miles, or a circle loosely defined by the diameter drawn between the western tip of Cuba and the center of the Bay of Campeche (on the same latitude).

Whilst the NHC forecast is for increasing shear to develop (limiting formation to 'only' tropical storm force), and the surface temperature of the gulf is only just at or a little below the 'magic' 86F (30C) below which hurricanes (supposedly) can't form, the likely deeper layer of the available thermal energy may have more to say about the development, or not, than the as-yet-to-develop shear, or NOAA's predictions.

Wouldn't be suprised to see, (if the storm redevelops over water) Cat 1-3 at second landfall, even this early in the season.

Me? on the current track, I anticipate some good sailing weather for my smallest boats next Monday and Tuesday...

As usual, forewarned is forearmed.

[barnakiel]

Yes. The outlook for the Gulf is here:


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents


I wonder how very cool East Atlantic winter that has now exploded into extra hot East Atlantic Spring will affect the tropical waves that will form over next couple of weeks.


b.

[barnakiel]

Tropical waves not very many and relatively flat:


https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/fax/PYEA11.gif


weather is a strange thing.


b.

[S/V Illusion]

The most common gift graduates receive after obtaining a degree in meteorology is a crystal ball.
Today’s forecast for my local area is a 50% chance of rain. That’s a “coin flip”