2016 Weather to the Azores

[barnakiel]

May 18 update:

Now it is where things turn interesting.

The analysis shows a fine fat High as you want it where you want it.

But the 96hrs frcst shows a big Low heading for the Azores. You will notice 1025 High to its East frcst to drift NE and 1025 High dissipating below it. A Low like this could 'drop' in between the two High. This would not be nice. Would it.

I will look up longer timed gribs on another machine and be back.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

Looked up 7 days' gribs.

The Low is there but it is not forecast (in the long term gribs) to go below the Azores. It is May 19 01:30 UTC.

This development must be monitored by whoever is underway now.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

May 22 update:

The analysis chartlet shows 1025 High at its Azorean post and a fresh 1025 becoming 1030 rolling in from the West.

The 96frcst shows the two likely merging giving us a new center with the core offset to the W and a possibly nasty Low sliding down between the Azores and the Portuguese coast.

The W offset of the core implies those who sail the direct route will run into very light winds relative early.

All clear on the tropical front.

Standby,
b.

[MarkJ]

Good reports. Thanks Barny!

Sent from a stupid phone that replaces words with weird stuff.

[boatman61]

Looks like folks arriving in the Azores around the end of the weekend are due for a bumpy ride in.. however the 31st of May looks perfect for a St Martin departure with a beam reach start.. as opposed to a beat

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Looks like folks arriving in the Azores around the end of the weekend are due for a bumpy ride in.. however the 31st of May looks perfect for a St Martin departure with a beam reach start.. as opposed to a beat

Plenty can change in a week. Wait and see what it looks like on the 31st, morning.

BTW: I noticed grib.us has been down for three days now. Any idea what happened? Meanwhile I downloaded zyGrib and I am impressed.

b.

[boatman61]

Not a clue mate.. I don't use GRIB Charts.. just go for the pictures with the big arrows... easier to remember and compare over the period I'm prepping for general patterns and memories of previous crossings..
Once I've set off.. take it as it comes.
Back to wet and cool for time of year here in Portugal.. 18c and rain.

[barnakiel]

May 27 update:

It looks truly interesting now.

The analysis shows a mix of high and low pressure situation similar to what we saw some 10 days ago.

Now the 96hrs frcst is where it looks like, should this develop, we might see another sweeper like last year. Quite a view on the 96 frcst chartlet.

PLS note the 'Possible Tropical ...' info to the left in the frcst image. Long term gribs show this one to likely develop into something that may take a track with a strong E'ly bias. Let's hope it will not happen, let's act as if it could.

Boats at sea are well advised to keep eye on both systems.

Cheers,
b.

[barnakiel]

May 30 update:

There is plenty of very broadly distributed high pressure on the way towards the Azores and the boats on the crossing will get stuck there. Only being at or above 35N could get one some air.

However, 96hrs frcst shows storm BONNIE (look to the left in the chartlet) and if you look up long term gribs, this one may depart on a crossing too. So obviously one does not want to be on its expected track ...

Definitely not an easy moment for anyone still sitting in the West Indies waiting for a clean window.

Images from today attached.

Cheers,
b.

[boatman61]

Hi mate.. I am now in SMX and looking to head out in around 7-10 days time.. it was bumpy at 40K feet over the Azores yesterday and its overcast here at Lagoonies.. and mozzies by the thousand.. have posted my Spot on CF if you want to track me as an excercise..

[barnakiel]

Hi there,

I will find your Spot and follow you, virtually!

If you have a sat phone of any sort drop me a pm with your number ... sms to sat phones are still free ... .

I am attaching a screen dump of a longer term grib where you can see a secondary Low that may develop later. I hope it will not develop, long term models are at times way off, esp. when there is plenty of dynamics like now.

Fingers crossed. Stndby.

Big hug, keep the mozzies at bay ;-)
Cheers,
b.

[boatman61]

Hoping to be ready to leave via Dutch side tomorrow evening and head round to Marigot Bay.. anchor up and finish off the prepping there..
At the moment Tuesday/Wednesday next week are looking favourable.. see if it stays that way..

[barnakiel]

June 3 update:

Again, the high pressure displaced way West in the analysis. You will notice post tropical Bonnie that will count to those sailing via Bermuda and from Bermuda onwards.

In the 96hrs horizon the forecast draws the High in a weak form and removed way to SE and another Low wiping the Azores and their approaches.

Looks like this one is a diesel year?

Images attached.

Cheers,
b.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Hoping to be ready to leave via Dutch side tomorrow evening and head round to Marigot Bay.. anchor up and finish off the prepping there..
At the moment Tuesday/Wednesday next week are looking favourable.. see if it stays that way..

Boy am I glad we cut through the Lagoon instead of outside as the owner wanted...

[barnakiel]

Update June 6:

The analysis chart shows small amount of High pressure displaced much to the S and W of the Azores. Mostly Low presure and fronts closer to the Azores. Conditions at departure points Guadeloupe and thereabout moderate trade winds and weakening quickly. Not much wind after first 48 hours into the passages.

The 96 hours chartlet shows the High soft and drifting somewhat Estwards and the fronts and the then post-tropical (remnants of system 'C') sweeping the Azores. Good flow (but also fronts rain thunder and lightning) on the back of the retreating High. This is where the boats that want to avoid calms want to be. Adrenaline wx guaranteed.

Cheers,
b.