Possible loss of sv Europa"?

[Pelagic]

Was told last night that today will be the final day of air search for the crew of Europa.

Primarily because of the upcoming storm and the 12 days elapsed since EPIRB was turned on.

The search coordinators in HK and Philippines both agreed that the original report of debris and body sighted by Philippine Coast Guard person was incorrect.

So there still remains a slim hope that the crew of Europa may be drifting towards Cambodia.

[pbmaise]

Any list of names yet?

[CSY Man]

. Primarily because of the upcoming storm and the 12 days elapsed since EPIRB was turned on.

EPIRB turned on but no position fix?
What is the battery life of a modern EPIRB?
If contact lost it may have gone down with the boat, no good news either way.

[Pelagic]

The EPIRB signal lasted about 5 days and they searched position with limited resources

[Pelagic]

http://www.boattest.com/review/beneteau/3302_oceanis-60

Europa was a new Beneteau Oceanis 60.

All we know is that she was shipped to HK... mast rigged and she sailed into a very atypical fast developing tropical storm.

She should have made it thru as she was crewed by 5 very experienced sailors, but was lost!

Rig failure causing hull damage first comes to mind as a catastrophic event

Any other ideas based on your knowledge of a Beneteau Oceanis 60 of which I know nothing about?

[UpOnStands]

do we know how much time between mast installation and departure?

[Pelagic]

Don't have those details
Knowing HK....the rigging and commissioning would have happened quite fast and I am sure they would have sea trialed before departure.

Do Bennies have keel problems?

[pbmaise]

First more details on timing and storm.

On September 28, 2015 a cluster of thunderstorms formed to a tropical disturbance near Palau. With more organization, the JMA classified the system to a tropical depression early on September 30.

On September 31 the PAGASA upgraded it to a tropical depression, assigning the name Kabayan. The JTWC designated it as 22W later that day and started issuing warnings. All three agencies later classified Kabayan as a tropical storm, with the JMA naming it
Mujigae . The system was located in a region of light vertical wind shear .

By October 2, Mujigae made landfall over Aurora province and the JTWC later downgraded the system to a tropical depression. Soon, the storm left the Philippine Area of Responsibility . Later on the same day, Mujigae emerged into the South China Sea , where weak vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperature favored development and reorganization of the system. The JTWC upgraded it back to a tropical storm whilst the JMA upped the intensity to severe tropical storm strength.

October 3, 2015, due to radial outflow, Mujigae began a phase of rapid deepening , with convection wrapping around a developing eye, as it moved towards western Guangdong , China, prompting the JMA and the JTWC to classify Mujigae as a typhoon.

The JTWC upgraded Mujigae to a Category 4-equivalent typhoon. At that time the storm was about 350 km (215 mi) south-southwest of Hong Konghttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File...2015_track.png

[Pelagic]

Great synopsis pbmaise.

Europa left HK Oct 1st in the evening with a reasonable expectation that the depression would not amount to anything

[pbmaise]

Analysis of sailing and storm.

The purpose here is to learn.

I beg to differ with Pelagic regarding "reasonable expectation".

As a fellow sailor in the Philippines I watched this storm closely from first formation and I had every expectation it would be a typhoon that would pass through the Philippines and eventually hit China.

I even had the satellite image saved on my phone. So this image on Oct 1, 2015 is what Robin must have seen when leaving Hong Kong. He was headed right towards TD 22W.

The sailing was in the middle of the typhoon season. Further, the typhoon reason in the area is very long and typhoons tend to follow tracks. Early storms tend to approach Philippines but then steer North. Mid-season storms tend to head West and get more and more South later in the season. Just a few days before the sailing a different Cat 4 typhoon named Dujuan had just made a track through Taiwan and then China.

It was logical to expect typhoons after Dujuan would tend to travel a more Southerly route. This means going through the Philippines.

[Pelagic]

My friends have paid the ultimate price for being wrong about their assessment , that the depression would fizzle out over land or would not reorganised so quickly.

So no argument from me that they made a tragic mistake.

I am more interested in what caused the boat to founder, as i believe it should not have.

[pbmaise]

The following is conjecture. However, it is in part based on my personal experience and two demastings. (One due to over compression of mast and too tight rigging, and one from failure of fitting rated at 22,000 lbs)

#1 As much as we may think a 60 foot vessel is big and capable, the fact remains it is a small craft. Anything 65 foot and below is classed small craft.

#2 I would not expect the 90 foot tall mast to have survived the winds they would have seen. This was a production monohull with a tall slender mast held in column under high tension. The cross section is not like a big rotating mast. Therefore demasting likely was first.

#3 It is likely at this point they set the EPIRB and they then tried to cast the mast into the sea.

#4 One of three events is likely:
a. A broken mast section hulled the vessel.
b. A chain plate, when pulled the wrong way, pulled out a section of hull.
c. The mast damaged the prop and/or rudder.

#5 If the 90 foot mast dropped onto the deck there is a good chance it damaged any life raft.

#6 Without a mast, and with possible water coming in, the vessel was a sitting duck for high waves. (In my case, waves were not an issue since my vessel is 40ft wide and not just 16ft. Further I was caught only in a tiny 50 knot squal that was gone within minutes and not a typhoon.)

If a sailboat is going to be out in Pacific size storms during typhoon season it should survive even if demasted. That is how we must classify a vessel as seaworthy. No sailor I known considers a single masted Beneteau to be seaworthy.

Now lets define seaworthy:

In the event of a demasting, and all hell up top, is it safe to sit below while the mast thrashes against the hull and deck?

A. Will the hull withstand being bashed by spreader bars, broken boom etc. ? or
B. If hulled, can she remain afloat? or
C. Will she turn turtle and remain afloat.

Many wooden, steel hull, and ferro cement boats pass test A.
Some composite and some wooden boats pass test B.
Many cats and tri pass test C and the mast didnt break or simple hangs from below.


In all these cases, it is usually safe for the crew to remain below after demasting and wait for the storm to blow over.

(My vessel passes all three tests. I never was in any danger with a huge mast bashing the hull of my boat. Why? It is a trimaran and would remain afloat even if hulled in a single ama. In fact it still floats if hulled in every single compartment. I havent tried test C. )

The design problem for the Beneteau begins with a fiberglass hull that must remain water tight to remain afloat. It can easly be hulled by the mast. That is why we call it a coastal cruising yacht. It should never venture into seas where it can get hit by a major storm. After demasting the crew have only a short time to drop that mast into the deep.

Recommendations:
#1 Know your vessel limitations.
#2 Assume worst case storms can hit.
#3 Follow weather and heed warnings.
#4 Sailing crew may add risk if they pressure the captain to sail in hazardous conditions to meet their deadlines. (Ahem...)
#5 Fiberglass monohulls need to be able to cut a mast free in seconds. Strongly advise Dyneema rigging that any kitchen bread knife can cut in seconds.
#6 Sail with large pieces of plywood. (I have given away plywood twice to boats needing emergency mending.)
#7 Protect life raft.

[pbmaise]

Please no offense meant to fiberglass monohulls. The statement that they dont belong in waters when there are possible Cat 4 and Cat 5 typhoons are based on storms very few of you will ever experience. The reality is 75% of storms this year have grown to that size. It is a record.



Just look at how many typhoons there have been this year. It is not impossible to safely sail a fiberglass monohull in these waters. It is highly important to know where they are likely to be, pick the right time, and watch for surprises.

[pbmaise]

Be careful when planning travel in this area to look at recent typhoon activity. Many of these storms in 2015 packed 150 knot gusts and 40 foot high waves. Compare 2015 year to date with 2013 and 2014.

[Pelagic]

Those are great graphics..... Where do you find them?