"Everyone is buying boats'"during the pandemic, and it's causing a short supply

[Dpackie]

This is perfect for me. 5 years out, starting my homework now on all issues concerning live aboard living. Should be lots of sellers when we are ready to jump in.

[daletournier]

Of course its effective, as long as house prices keep going up and people access their equity and as long as credit cards are supplied.....trickle down is 100% linked to credit availability.

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

That's the theory... this crisis more than most will show whether trickle-down is effective or a myth.


But yeah, one can certainly have a small influence by patronizing the locals whenever possible.

[fish53]

Originally Posted by Singularity

This. People so out of touch with history/economics and/or what the natural world brings that they celebrate, or at least think is good, things that should suggest that there is a problem. Imagine reading a fluff piece from a Polish newspaper in early 1939: "Great news...suitcase, horse-cart sales skyrocket!"

Some people read these articles and find evidence that the situation is good, other read them and realize they should consider buying a boat/cart. Either way its good business for brokers (whose opinion, unsurprisingly, is described in the article).

As one who's ancestors profited from the suitcase, horse-cart (actually handcarts sold better) market of August 1939 I agree with you, that's why I haven't taken advantage of being able to sell my boat for 30-50% more than I could have a year ago. Used boats, particularly offshore capable sailboats are a hot commodity around here right now. The other day there was a guy walking around the harbor with a fat wad of 100's looking for a boat and got no takers.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Nice score, for sure, congratulations... but doesn't this seem slightly insane - enticing a reasonably well-off person to use more credit, to possibly over-buy, and rewarding them with a low interest rate (and still deductible ... so jealous...) that's half or lower than the averaged returns they'd reasonably expect from conservative investments?

Meanwhile, gov't debt piles up and there's still a lot of support needed from lockdown effects for those on the lower rungs of the ladder? Perhaps the added buying helps rev up the whole economy... but it seems skewed.

Why do you think it seems skewed?
Am I less deserving? I started out as an Army Private with a high school education.
Is an extra $600 a month and an extra 13 weeks of unemployment not enough?
99% of the time people are where they are due to their own activities.
That Ukrainian couple I spoke of, I don’t think they came over with a large trust fund, nor do I suspect that they got large government hand outs, and yet they are considered successful by many.

The truth is that most people can “make it” in the US, pretty much all it takes is some hard work and learning to save money.

A small percentage can’t, they literally just don’t have the mental ability or are physically handicapped, but they are a minority and are usually not the ones people speak of when they say enough isn’t being done.

On edit, I don’t like government subsidies of any type really, but not so much that I won’t take advantage of them.

[smj]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Why do you think it seems skewed?

Am I less deserving? I started out as an Army Private with a high school education.

Is an extra $600 a month and an extra 13 weeks of unemployment not enough?

99% of the time people are where they are due to their own activities.

That Ukrainian couple I spoke of, I don’t think they came over with a large trust fund, nor do I suspect that they got large government hand outs, and yet they are considered successful by many.



The truth is that most people can “make it” in the US, pretty much all it takes is some hard work and learning to save money.



A small percentage can’t, they literally just don’t have the mental ability or are physically handicapped, but they are a minority and are usually not the ones people speak of when they say enough isn’t being done.

I’m sure the Ukrainian couple didn’t come to the US during a global pandemic either.
You really haven’t a clue that honest hard working people are hurting right now? And I’m pretty sure the global pandemic doesn’t qualify someone being out of work because of their “own activities”.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Of course its effective, as long as house prices keep going up and people access their equity and as long as credit cards are supplied.....trickle down is 100% linked to credit availability.

So you aren't concerned about a bubble?

[zboss]

I sold my boat without even listing it - a friend of mine knew we were putting it up for sale months from now (she wasn't "ready" to be sold) and knew someone that was looking at boats. 1st person to look at it and it sold within days. No broker fee either but I do owe a very nice bottle of rum to my friend.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Why do you think it seems skewed?
Am I less deserving?

If we're in a crisis that has disproportionately affected low-wage earners, yet a big chunk of the aid is going into improving the lot of the already secure... is that efficient? Is it even going to work?

Time will tell, and I appreciate how keeping the economy "running" should ultimately end up to the benefit of everyone... but it very much feels like the US is setting up to let the laid-off and unemployed tough it out, while others are benefitting from the pump being primed with cheap credit.

Nothing to do with deserving; I just wonder if this current approach will actually work. There's an awful lot of angry people who have done most of the working (or getting the axe) and the getting sick/dying; are they going to quietly endure the coming years of lost assets and grinding poverty?

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

So you aren't concerned about a bubble?

Absolutely concerned, you know I am , I'm not agreeing with the theory behind trickle down, completely unsustainable imo, totally relies on debt continuing to flow.

Let me define trickle down "people buying stuff they dont need, with money they dont have"..non productive debt.

Btw, which bubble..lol.

[Celestialsailor]

Originally Posted by smj

You got a good interest rate but did you think of the possibility that your house may lose 20-30% of its value in the next few years? I mean we are in a bubble, correct?
Also as Adeline confirmed, there are plenty of people that are really hurting in this economy including some of my friends. Just because there’s a small group of people that can afford to pay inflated prices for something doesn’t make the economy strong.

If the virus continues, yes we could loose 30% perhaps. But look over the long haul. Is a home from 1990 worth more than 2020?...No it's not. Realestate investments are about the future. I came from very humble beginnings...a blue collar guy. My break was buying a home in Hawaii in 2000 for $185,000 during. I was told I was crazy buying into a tourist trap market.
In 2003 the dot com people were given golden parachutes as Silicon Valley was winding down. My house began to increase in value up to 20% a month! You do not have to be a highly educated individual to conclued that this cannot be sustained. Especially since GDP averages 3% a year. In 2004 my home was worth $545,000 and I put it up for sale. The same people who told me not to buy there, told me not to sale. You really have to just think logically. Six months after I sold it, the market began to collapes. With those proceeds, I buy homes cash now.
But as far as buying boats now? I think only the sellers are making out. When this virus goes away, prices will drop but realestate will still be king.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

and are you seeing inflation over there? i do, at the grocery store, it is phenomenal!!! a year ago i spent 70 euros but now spend nearly 120 euros for the same exact stuff/amounts. believe me, staying thin is so easy in europe!

Certainly seems that way in the UK. A marina berth for the night used to cost os £25 for a night a couple of years ago. We stopped in a few during the last 3 week summer cruise and the average was £35. One wanting £47, we moved elsewhere. A noticeable increase. One manager talking to the bloke in front of the queue to me explained that he couldn't offer an under 10m berth at the moment and there were 23 confirmed names on the waiting list. Bloke was shocked as his dreams of boat purchase and keeping it in the local marina just took a tumble.

Anyone want a cruise ship. 6 at anchor in Weymouth bay and another 4 in Poole bay on the south coast of England. That's a lot of money tied up doing nothing.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by smj

Can’t imagine the cure being worse than death

Well, I think most people would agree that all else being equal 2 deaths are worse than 1 death.

Heck 1 death plus a family losing their home is worse than 1 death.

What if you have to have 1000 families lose their home to eliminate 1 death? Now it starts getting more complicated. Especially if that 1 death is a 95yr old with major health problems who likely to die within the month anyway?

You are presuming there is no collateral damage when you make the simplistic "any death is too many" argument.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

What if you have to have 1000 families lose their home to eliminate 1 death? Now it starts getting more complicated. Especially if that 1 death is a 95yr old with major health problems who likely to die within the month anyway?

See? the attempt to downplay a death. Oh they were old, if not the COVID then something else woulda got'em next week...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

I am also very concerned about the costs incurred from our efforts to manage COVID-19, but let's not cook up hypotheticals (1000 lost homes for 1 life saved ) ... let's look at the actual costs, which we're still getting a handle on.

Have you also considered the new businesses that have sprung up, or the existing businesses that successfully pivoted? How about the businesses and individuals who have been able to benefit from the absurdly low interest rates around?

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

See? the attempt to downplay a death. Oh they were old, if not the COVID then something else woulda got'em next week...

So tell us what the acceptable number of families losing there home in order to eliminate 1 death.

Are you saying that a 95yr old who was going to die in a month should be saved over an otherwise healthy 18yr old if we have limited resources? Yes, age and health do play a role.

I'm not downplaying. I'm trying to come to a logical way of assessing the collateral damage. It's messy and ugly but the binary save the old guy or kill the old guy is sound bite approach that gets us nowhere.

PS: We haven't touched collateral deaths. We are starting to see stories that in many poor countries, starvation is a real threat because when the work stops, there isn't the social safety net. Is it OK to kill 3 poor people overseas to save 1 Canadian?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

So tell us what the acceptable number of families losing there home in order to eliminate 1 death.

Are you saying that a 95yr old who was going to die in a month should be saved over an otherwise healthy 18yr old if we have limited resources? Yes, age and health do play a role.

I'm not downplaying. I'm trying to come to a logical way of assessing the collateral damage. It's messy and ugly but the binary save the old guy or kill the old guy is sound bite approach that gets us nowhere.

PS: We haven't touched collateral deaths. We are starting to see stories that in many poor countries, starvation is a real threat because when the work stops, there isn't the social safety net. Is it OK to kill 3 poor people overseas to save 1 Canadian?

What's missing is enough good data. Especially of the collateral damage. And it's still early days, meaning that a lot of collateral damage can still be prevented with appropriate economic action.

In other words, it's still soon enough to keep that healthy 18 yr old afloat, and prevent those 3rd world people from starving. If we want to, that is.