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vegasandre · 11-03-2015, 06:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by tropicalescape

If you want to read something funny go back and read the first few pages of this thread...

LOL I started this thread a couple years ago. Many jeers at me and people saying this and that. I may have been premature. But I was correct. Sometimes currency moves take a while to pan out. Now its coming to fruition. I have been short the Euro. Just a couple contracts since 1.25 this summer. I should of pounded it more but oh well- at least I will get that boat for less.

Today its dropped to 1.0585/dollar.

On a 400k Euro boat you would have paid 150k$ higher exactly one year ago (same on a house or a flat too).
I see this getting to at least .90 eur/$.

You might think that some would raise their Eur boat prices. That is not going to happen. Quite the opposite in fact. They will Lower more.

Watch. This still has a year to play out.

valhalla360 · 11-03-2015, 09:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by vegasandre

LOL I started this thread a couple years ago. Many jeers at me and people saying this and that. I may have been premature. But I was correct. Sometimes currency moves take a while to pan out. Now its coming to fruition. I have been short the Euro. Just a couple contracts since 1.25 this summer. I should of pounded it more but oh well- at least I will get that boat for less.

Today its dropped to 1.0585/dollar.

On a 400k Euro boat you would have paid 150k$ higher exactly one year ago (same on a house or a flat too).
I see this getting to at least .90 eur/$.

You might think that some would raise their Eur boat prices. That is not going to happen. Quite the opposite in fact. They will Lower more.

Watch. This still has a year to play out.

Especially on used boats, it will drive the prices down. For most, it is unrealistic to send them overseas to take advantage of the currency shift, so they will largely be sold to other EU citizens who have seen thier buying power shrink as anything imported becomes more expensive.

Of course there is a short and long term effects. In the long term, the hope (and that's all it is at this point) is that it will spure inflation which will eventually allow prices to rise. The question is if the central planning undershoots, it could make it worse.

On a side note: I very much agree that while greece may be a small part of the larger EU economy, it's the catalyst effect that is the worry. Several other countries are just lying low and letting greece take most of the heat. If greece gets it's mess sorted out or gets kicked out, it has implication for what happens in the other countries.

tropicalescape · 11-03-2015, 09:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Especially on used boats, it will drive the prices down. For most, it is unrealistic to send them overseas to take advantage of the currency shift, so they will largely be sold to other EU citizens who have seen thier buying power shrink as anything imported becomes more expensive.

Of course there is a short and long term effects. In the long term, the hope (and that's all it is at this point) is that it will spure inflation which will eventually allow prices to rise. The question is if the central planning undershoots, it could make it worse.

On a side note: I very much agree that while greece may be a small part of the larger EU economy, it's the catalyst effect that is the worry. Several other countries are just lying low and letting greece take most of the heat. If greece gets it's mess sorted out or gets kicked out, it has implication for what happens in the other countries.

Greece is like Park Avenue compared to Venezuela ..Europe will be ok in a few years while South America will be the focal point of things gone wrong in the present and near future..Then it will be Asias turn at making things right for the 21st century and at the end of the day that is what all of this misery is about "dragging them all weather they go peacably or screaming and kicking into the New 21st Century..It will not be business as usual there is a new way of accounting and many new ways of doing just about everything get used to it or fade away because that is what is happening..

OldFrog75 · 11-03-2015, 11:12

Whether it's French boats are German cars, at these levels it might make sense to buy in Europe and pay the VAT (which I believe is refunded when you take it out of the Eurozone) and bring the item back to the US.

I doubt US distributors will lower there prices 25% to enable US consumers to take advantage of the exchange rate.

hellosailor · 11-03-2015, 12:51

European boat pickups, sure, as long as you can get them with 12v systems.

European cars, you need to stick to "overseas pickup" programs, because SO much of the car, from door beam reinforcements to bumpers and headlights and emission controls, are all different. Bring an EU car to the US, and you can buy a 35 year old 28' sloop for what the conversion and import fees will be.

Or you buy two boats, sell 'em here, and then just buy the car here?

Therapy · 11-03-2015, 13:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by hellosailor

European boat pickups, sure, as long as you can get them with 12v systems.

European cars, you need to stick to "overseas pickup" programs, because SO much of the car, from door beam reinforcements to bumpers and headlights and emission controls, are all different. Bring an EU car to the US, and you can buy a 35 year old 28' sloop for what the conversion and import fees will be.

Or you buy two boats, sell 'em here, and then just buy the car here?

Heh.
How to make money while dreaming of cruising.

GoingWalkabout · 11-03-2015, 22:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldFrog75

Whether it's French boats are German cars, at these levels it might make sense to buy in Europe and pay the VAT (which I believe is refunded when you take it out of the Eurozone) and bring the item back to the US.

I doubt US distributors will lower there prices 25% to enable US consumers to take advantage of the exchange rate.

I Agree OldFrog. Even if you have to change out the 110 given the price difference now in Europe buying with dollars it would be worth it. What I think will happen is the private pre-owned in Europe will lead the prices down and will cause the private sellers in the US to follow suite or they will be sitting on the boats a long time while the buyers move to Europe. Also who cares about the delivery. Save me 100K or 200K by buying a European boat in US Dollars and I will do a cross Atlantic "almost" anytime of the year. :big grin:

As with every change there are always winners and losers. And there will be those who will try to take advantage such as US dealers. But market forces have a way of taking care of the greedy especially in this day and age of the internet and the global village we all live in. :big grin:

goboatingnow · 12-03-2015, 16:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

I Agree OldFrog. Even if you have to change out the 110 given the price difference now in Europe buying with dollars it would be worth it. What I think will happen is the private pre-owned in Europe will lead the prices down and will cause the private sellers in the US to follow suite or they will be sitting on the boats a long time while the buyers move to Europe. Also who cares about the delivery. Save me 100K or 200K by buying a European boat in US Dollars and I will do a cross Atlantic "almost" anytime of the year. :big grin:

As with every change there are always winners and losers. And there will be those who will try to take advantage such as US dealers. But market forces have a way of taking care of the greedy especially in this day and age of the internet and the global village we all live in. :big grin:

I see no reason for second hand prices to fall in Europe denominated in euros. In fact with more buyers in the market place It will harden European second hand pricing.

us pricing will be affected of course

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

GoingWalkabout · 12-03-2015, 20:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I see no reason for second hand prices to fall in Europe denominated in euros. In fact with more buyers in the market place It will harden European second hand pricing.

us pricing will be affected of course

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You could be right however we saw an uptick in pre owned Greek boats for sale following the economic problems in Greece. If hard times spread in other parts of Europe you could very well see an increase in Euro boats coming on the market as the entrepreneurial class dispose of their discretionary toys. I think it is called forced sales. Add to that less European buyers coming into the market and you have a supply demand shift that will see a fall in prices. Yes US buyers will pick up the increased inventory but not all as the US economy is very slowly coming out of its own decade long recession. I would expect the next 6 to 8 months becoming the perfect by time opportunity for US dollar boat buyers. IMHO

valhalla360 · 12-03-2015, 23:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I see no reason for second hand prices to fall in Europe denominated in euros. In fact with more buyers in the market place It will harden European second hand pricing.

us pricing will be affected of course

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

It depends on the type of boat and the EU citizens effective purchasing power.

If we are talking about million dollar boats, the idea of shipping it back home may be well worth the trouble. Add to that the fact it's a small market (relatively speaking) and you may see buyers increase enough to hold prices (in euro) steady. If you are looking at $50-100k boats, I don't believe you will see enough overseas buyers coming in to have any impact relative to the number of boats available. For the vast majority of overseas buyers the cost savings are just not worth the trouble once you factor in cost related to purchasing long distance, shipping the boat home, import taxes and converting to N. American standards, etc...

Then you have the purchasing power issue. Try as you might in the modern world it is very hard (and expensive) to buy local for everything. With the Euro dropping imports become more expensive.

Say 25% of an average persons spending is on imported items and lets say imported items cost 25% more due to the drop in the euro. If you change nothing in your budget, your expenses have just gone up by 6.25%.

The most probable place to make up the shortfall is in non-essentials such as yacht purchases, so the reduction in available yacht purchase money from EU citizens could drop by far more than the 6.25%. Since they will continue to make up the vast majority of purchasers in the EU, that will drive prices down.

The hope for EU sellers would be that given some time, inflation will take hold, salaries will rise, and they can raise their prices enough that the sale price has the same purchasing power it did before the euro slide. That's an iffy proposition right now and even if successful will likely take a few years to fruition.

goboatingnow · 13-03-2015, 04:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by valhalla360

It depends on the type of boat and the EU citizens effective purchasing power.

If we are talking about million dollar boats, the idea of shipping it back home may be well worth the trouble. Add to that the fact it's a small market (relatively speaking) and you may see buyers increase enough to hold prices (in euro) steady. If you are looking at $50-100k boats, I don't believe you will see enough overseas buyers coming in to have any impact relative to the number of boats available. For the vast majority of overseas buyers the cost savings are just not worth the trouble once you factor in cost related to purchasing long distance, shipping the boat home, import taxes and converting to N. American standards, etc...

Then you have the purchasing power issue. Try as you might in the modern world it is very hard (and expensive) to buy local for everything. With the Euro dropping imports become more expensive.

Say 25% of an average persons spending is on imported items and lets say imported items cost 25% more due to the drop in the euro. If you change nothing in your budget, your expenses have just gone up by 6.25%.

The most probable place to make up the shortfall is in non-essentials such as yacht purchases, so the reduction in available yacht purchase money from EU citizens could drop by far more than the 6.25%. Since they will continue to make up the vast majority of purchasers in the EU, that will drive prices down.

The hope for EU sellers would be that given some time, inflation will take hold, salaries will rise, and they can raise their prices enough that the sale price has the same purchasing power it did before the euro slide. That's an iffy proposition right now and even if successful will likely take a few years to fruition.

Most people in the boat business here, will tell you that to some extent boat buying has improved in Europe, since the dark days of about 2009-2011. At METS last Nov, the mood was very buoyant in fact.

Remember money supply is at an all time high and getting higher, interest rates are at close to zero and outside one or two problematic economies , things are slowly improving and at least stabilising.

There is no evidence that European buyers are reducing at present, it certainly more buoyant then a few years ago.

In reality US buyers of sailboats are simply too small in number ( its quite a small sailboat marketplace anyway) to have any real impact on Euro boat pricing. The Euro sailing boat market is by far the largest in the world and tends to be driven by internal factors.

I suspect you will also see movements by European boat builders to protect their US dealer position as well, both by possible restrictions on place of sale and prices changes. I also see prices rising somewhat in the Euro boat market as some inflation feeds into the system.

If I was buying in dollars I'd be doing it reasonably quick.