I thought it would be interesting to resurrect this old thread to see what has actually occurred with the Euro:dollar cross over the course of the 14 1/2 months since the thread began. To briefly summarize what this thread is about, the OP was confident that the Euro would fall to parity with the US dollar, or even fall below par (at par, one dollar buys one euro).
His premise was that those holding US dollars (with which to
purchase used sailing vessels priced in Euros) would see their funds "go further" - that is, a given quantity of dollars would buy a lot more boat in
Europe in the wake of a collapse in the Euro:dollar exchange rate.
The thread was started on November 17, 2011. On that date, it took $1.34562 (one dollar, thirty-four and a half cents) to buy €1.00 (one Euro). In September of 2011, the Euro had crashed from ~$1.45 to ~$1.32 as the continent was undergoing stress related to the situation in
Greece.
But by the end of October, the Euro had rallied back strongly to ~$1.4150, then began softening once again. As stated earlier, by the time the OP started this thread, it had fallen to $1.3456. The OP was quite confident that this marked the beginning of the end for the Euro, and he felt that he might save as much as $200,000 on a
catamaran in Europe by waiting another year and allowing the anticipated Euro collapse to occur.
By the middle of January, 2012, the Euro had fallen to $1.2640, then rallied back to $1.34683 once again on February 27, 2012. In other words, three and a half months after the OP expressed his view that the Euro was collapsing to parity with the US dollar, the closing
price was virtually identical to what it had been on November 17, 2011.
The tensions in
Greece continued to impact the Euro adversely, however, and the Euro resumed its slide.
On July 25, 2012, it closed at $1.2064. The OP seemed to have been correct it his belief that the Euro was on its way to 1:1 parity with the US$.
The $1.2064 closing price on July 25, 2012 proved to be the low point of the move, however. From there, the Euro began an upward trend against the dollar that continues to the present. A couple of days ago, the Euro closed higher than it did on the day the OP began this thread in mid-November, 2011, and today it closed at $1.36492 (or about 2 cents higher than it was when this thread began.)
At post #8 in this thread, cormorant suggested to the OP that if he was so confident that the Euro was in the process of collapsing to, and through, parity with the US dollar, he should short the Euro in the ForEx market and he'd make a killing, essentially getting the
catamaran of his dreams for free
.
ForEx trading is not for the faint of heart . . . it takes knowledge, discipline, emotional detachment and exquisite timing to do it successfully and consistently.
Attached below is a two-year Euro:dollar chart with the dates mentioned above annotated. As I read the chart, I believe it shows the near-completion of a massive reverse head-and-shoulders formation that could set the base for a prolonged appreciation of the Euro against the $US.
(EDIT: Sorry . . . I just noticed that I mislabeled the low on the chart . . . it should read 25Jul2012. And the last date should read 01Feb2013.)
TaoJones
. Obviously I didn't take it all at face value (it being the BBC 
), but nonetheless gave pause for thought........
Interested in smart boat technology, networking and all things tech
. Parole? 
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