Used boat market 2nd half 2022?

[HeywoodJ]

Originally Posted by NPCampbell

While we are splitting rat hairs ... Wind is not renewable either because wind turbines increase the Earth's moment of inertia thus slowing down the rotation of the planet.

Since all of the materials that comprise a wind turbine are from Earth (unless you know of some successful asteroid mining project), the weight/mass of the system does not change. So, you will have to factor in the elevation of all the source materials used in the construction of the turbine and then the installation elevation to make a true calculation of effects on moment of inertia.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Sailing Hanse37

In Europ: no slowdown, order books are full for the coming 3 years. Second hand market is empty, prices are high and even rising more…

Agree entirely , second hand sales are going gangbusters in Europe no evidence of slowdown

[BBill]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Boat sales are a lagging indicator. Wealthier people don't stop buying milk when the price goes up, but their large purchases are eventually effected by the economy, too.

Europe follows the same economic principles as everyone else. If the expected recessions show up, expect the boat market to soften.

But these times are a little interesting, just because governments have been throwing out so much money that lots of people have managed to soak some up, with relatively unpredictable results.

Yep, the "3 yr back log" was booked before current times and not exactly an indicator of future new boat sales.

Looking back at real estate sales here in my area of Florida a few months ago and properties were selling in less than a week with multiple offers..the number of Realtor home listings was hovering around 700-1000 for the past 1.5 yrs.Today listings number around 2500+ and properties staying on the market weeks to months. Sales are slowing, prices are dropping and time on market longer...boat prices will certainly trend this way too.

[danstanford]

[QUOTE=BBill;3694130]

Originally Posted by MyCatLife

Regarding new boat orders,...

The 2022 Annapolis Sailboat Show ended yesterday. Anyone have any insight into new boat orders? I can't imagine they are strong...

I'm sure order books are still "full" due to the back log... but are new orders still happening?

And what about cancelations? I have to imagine that interest rates have resulted in a significant amount of cancelations.[/QUOTE

If history is an indicator, boat sales shut down every time the economy tanks. It was pretty drastic in the mid 1970s and early 2000s. I'm seeing the used sailboat inventory growing and the powerboat market slowing now...in Florida anyway. No telling how long the cat fad is going to drive sales.

Any order contract I have investigated requires a significant deposit, I imagine cancellations to be very painful. To date, prices have been rising so quickly that this risk is somewhat mitigated by the ability to re-sell, but the price increases will have to be curtailed due to a number of factors.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Any order contract I have investigated requires a significant deposit, I imagine cancellations to be very painful. To date, prices have been rising so quickly that this risk is somewhat mitigated by the ability to re-sell, but the price increases will have to be curtailed due to a number of factors.

The deposits I'm aware of are fully refundable until the build starts.

[aqfishing]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

The deposits I'm aware of are fully refundable until the build starts.

This is not the case with some manufacturers. The only way out is if the final price increases by more than x% of the quote at time of order.

[Piscis]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Agree entirely , second hand sales are going gangbusters in Europe no evidence of slowdown

Not only in Europe.

My settings on YW are the same since years... I purchased a 2017 Leopard 40 in March this year, and i am glad i did it. At the moment there is not one boat worldwide (catamaran) that would meet my settings (price, age, type)....

When i purchased in March, i had strong doubts doing the "right" thing, as i expected prices would come down again soon and i might buy too early. Well, if i wouldnt have signed in March, i wouldnt have signed at all this year...

Cats on "The Moorings" brookerage website are sold many times before they even hit the market. And asking prices up since beginning of this year. Even for older boats...

Not sure if this is the same for monos...

Oh, and i did not have problems in getting insurance for my vessel comming out of a charter fleet...

John

[Sailing Hanse37]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

The deposits I'm aware of are fully refundable until the build starts.

That was clearly not so for us, not that we wanted a refund.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

The deposits I'm aware of are fully refundable until the build starts.

Not on a new build unless the builder breaks the term.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Boat sales are a lagging indicator. Wealthier people don't stop buying milk when the price goes up, but their large purchases are eventually effected by the economy, too.

Europe follows the same economic principles as everyone else. If the expected recessions show up, expect the boat market to soften.

But these times are a little interesting, just because governments have been throwing out so much money that lots of people have managed to soak some up, with relatively unpredictable results.

It all depends how people read the “ wind “. While certain “ actors “ are predicting recessions I don’t see that reaction all around , Europe . In fact the pandemic has shown what massive Gov intervention is capable of.

For example in Ireland Tax Revenues are running 25% ahead of forecasts as the predominant Pharma and Tech industries are running flat out , hiring etc. hence the Gov intends to soften inflation with handouts , the second electricity handout is due soon. The obvious view is this energy inflation is temporary and will play out in 2023 . Many Europeans are doing the same.

House prices continue to rise , new build and house completions are up. Social housing programmes are going gangbusters in Expectation of a centre Left election in 18 months. The 7 billion on the Childrens hospital and the 10 billion on the new Metro underground are going ahead etc.

Hence the over all view is employment is up , wages are rising , and inflation is temporary.

Hence I see no “run for the basement “ this is reflected in leisure activity especially post Covid ( and there’s still talk of some winter Covid restrictions around Europe ) where people are determined to pursue their leisure ambitions.

So it remains to be seen how this all plays out. But right now there’s no feeling of impending “ doom “ in Europe outside a few areas.

( where I am in Greece they’ve had a bumper tourist season and the coffers are full !!)

Hence I think it will require multiple years for the boat market to soften , it it doesn’t at all. The choice is limited , new builds have big waiting times , marinas are jammed and raising prices.

I’d suggest if you can, buy now , cause it looks like little will be available next year.

[4arch]

At the Annapolis show I got the impression that factory orders are still going strong but sales of dealer new boat stock inventory are slowing down considerably. No notable price cuts on dealer inventory yet seem to be on offer. Unclear whether buildup of excess overhead is due to anyone’s feelings about the economy or whether it’s more that people spending hundreds of thousands on a new build don’t want to settle for “buying off the lot”.

We’re in the prime baby boomer retirement years now so my prediction is that their overall generational wealth will continue to keep the market for cruising monos and cats in the 40-55+ foot range relatively healthy for the next several years. There might be some soft patches here and there, and certainly some legacy manufacturers who haven’t kept up with the times will go away, but it’s hard to see any bloodbaths or fire sales happening anytime soon. However, once the last boomer retires by 2030, I see a lot of headwinds for both the new and used boat markets, at least in the US.

[BBill]

The Euro zone stock mkt is down to the point of trending contraction. Major strikes for higher wages, inflation happening, fuel and food shortages. The tourist boom is due to the vacuum from covid closures. Transportation interruptions. The Euro exchange is .97 today compared to 1.13 a few weeks ago. This doesn't sound like a booming economy to me...folks spending 1 mil on boats aren't feeling it yet.

[Sailing Hanse37]

Originally Posted by BBill

The Euro zone stock mkt is down to the point of trending contraction. Major strikes for higher wages, inflation happening, fuel and food shortages. The tourist boom is due to the vacuum from covid closures. Transportation interruptions. The Euro exchange is .97 today compared to 1.13 a few weeks ago. This doesn't sound like a booming economy to me...folks spending 1 mil on boats aren't feeling it yet.

For us in Europ: we generally pay boat in cash, no loan. Thus rising interest rates mean only that this is the right moment to invest in a boat. And most people who buy boats do not feel anything about economy slowing down and will never feel it…

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Sailing Hanse37

For us in Europ: we generally pay boat in cash, no loan. Thus rising interest rates mean only that this is the right moment to invest in a boat. And most people who buy boats do not feel anything about economy slowing down and will never feel it…

As I was racing with a broker today we were talking a lot about the market.

He opined most people buying boats are not using finance. Most are using pension lump sums or other windfall cash . He said these people are not concerned about inflation or interest rates.
Dollar euro exchange is irrelevant to most euro people , fuel costs are largely irrelevant to retirees etc

He said he doesn’t see a slow down in the shorter term. Ie 2023. Beyond that who knows.

Many euro economies are doing well despite specific issues. So there isn’t an air of impending doom in general

But The way I think a return to more normal post covid marketplaces is coming. But I see no evidence of the market crashing, certainly not in the next 6 months

[BBill]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

As I was racing with a broker today we were talking a lot about the market.

He opined most people buying boats are not using finance. Most are using pension lump sums or other windfall cash . He said these people are not concerned about inflation or interest rates.
Dollar euro exchange is irrelevant to most euro people , fuel costs are largely irrelevant to retirees etc

He said he doesn’t see a slow down in the shorter term. Ie 2023. Beyond that who knows.

Many euro economies are doing well despite specific issues. So there isn’t an air of impending doom in general

But The way I think a return to more normal post covid marketplaces is coming. But I see no evidence of the market crashing, certainly not in the next 6 months

I think you mean back to pre covid?

We have the same type buyers here in the states (especially Florida) but I wouldn't interpret that as "everyone" or "most" of them controlling the new boat sales over here. The downturn here back in the 2000s had multitudes of high end boats and private airplanes being unloaded for peanuts. Overall the boat market went into a recession while the wealthy continued to buy. I doubt it will be any different this time around.

I wonder if the mfgs who took deposits 3 yrs out have an escalation clause for inflation? The way materials prices are climbing they won't be able to hold prices. I'm seeing boat/motor prices skyrocketing here...I paid a 25% premium above list mid 2020 and waited 14 months for delivery, yes cash.