The Market Has Turned

[roger.waite]

Originally Posted by Therapy

Right!
We have the same Vassel option.
I told my kids in high school what language to learn. They did not listen and know no Chinese!

Excellent.
China already owns America's debts and, increasingly, its infrastructure.
Soon, they will own all your discounted boats too!

[capnorv]

The only thing I can think of as a worse way to borrow money than financing a boat is financing a car. I'm sure there are many owners such as myself that will carry a contract. Look around, not everyone are money hogs.

[Doodles]

Originally Posted by capnorv

The only thing I can think of as a worse way to borrow money than financing a boat is financing a car. I'm sure there are many owners such as myself that will carry a contract. Look around, not everyone are money hogs.

Looks like you have an inventory ... what's for sale and how much down?

[capnorv]

Sent private. So how does one live in Virginia and Thailand, you're a fortunate one!

[Capt Phil]

Sounds like many on this thread have it figured out! It will not be a pretty picture but we will survive. After WWII, there was heaps of cash around but not many commodities. It took years for the world to sort out the inflation spiral. You could find a used car if you were lucky but had difficulty finding gas to run it. We are headed down the same road with houses, boats, aircraft in long supply but no one will have a job or be able to afford the usury rates at our friendly bank. Cash will be king, particularly non US currency or gold.
Had a friend put in a bid on a 38' cutter in great condition last summer... asking price $80K, he offered $72K and was turned down. Boat still on the market for $65K and if it doesn't sell in the summer will probably go for around $50K.
Signs of the coming times, I'm afraid so keep your nest egg secure, cut up your credit cards and pay cash for everything. Don't forget to help those less fortunate... cheers, Capt Phil

[Just BS]

Let me preface my statement first by saying that I haven't read all of the post in this thread.

I was down around the marina's in San Diego's Spanish Landing this morning and I'll venture to guess that the slips there were 20% vacant. A few years ago you couldn't get a slip there for anything. People can't afford their boats and they are (or soon will be) practically giving them away.

It's a good time to be looking for a boat...

[sandy daugherty]

Back on topic (I started this after all!)

From "Soundings Trade Only Today", April 4, 2011
In March, the 2,585 brokerage boats sold in the United States came close to equaling the 2,611 sold in the same month in 2010. However, the total value of the boats sold, $254 million, was $73 million, or 22 percent, less than a year ago, when sales were $327 million.
According to YachtWorld.com member brokerages, which reported their sales in the proprietary SoldBoats.com database, the explanation for this steep decline in valuation rests entirely on falling big-boat sales and an even sharper drop in the total value of those sales.
Among boats larger than 55 feet, sales were down, with 66 boats sold, 23 fewer than the 89 boats sold in March 2010. The total value of those was down $73 million, a 49 percent drop from the $148 million in sales for the size range a year earlier.
Unit sales were higher for boats between 26 and 55 feet. Boats from 36 to 45 feet made the strongest gains with 525 sold, an increase of more than 10 percent. The 26- to 35-foot range and 46- to 55-foot range made incremental gains, with 1,024 and 133 boats sold, respectively.
These March sales reinforce a trend set in recent months, where the middle size ranges have showed level or modest growth and total valuation of boats sold has followed suit.
For the first quarter of 2011, unit sales were down 2 percent from 2010, with 5,851 boats sold. Total value of boats sold was down 16 percent, from $735 million to $618 million. Again, the falling value of big-boat sales has been responsible for nearly the entire drop in valuation, with sales for the three months valued at $200 million, down 36 percent from $313 million in the first quarter of 2010.

So; The bargains start at 55' and around a million dollars, the rest of the market has turned. Get off the pot and buy! There will be more to choose from now.

[Capt Phil]

Hi Sandy... your admonishing folks to 'get off the pot and buy' sounds strangely reminicent of the real estate salesmen who told everyone not to 'miss out' and buy real estate in 2007 or they will be left standing at the gate. Any one under the illusion that the economy and consumer durables like houses, boats and planes are safe havens must miraculously deny the realities of our fiscal meltdown and may want to buy a bridge I have for sale. With the Fed printing $ so fast you can see a daily drop in real value of the US currency relative to virtually all others in the civilized world, a government incapapable of acknowledging even the most basic laws of fiscal restraint, a burdgeoning federal debt that will be impossible to pay unless we print even more valueless $ and an entire country in financial denial, investing in anything other than nondomestic oil and gas, gold or non US based instruments is foolhardy IMHO. The boating economy has not begun to complete the inevitable correction that is coming. The statistics you quote remind me of Mark Twains' famous quip, 'there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics'.
You cannot make chicken soup out of chicken sh*t. The figures you quoted I'm sure are correct but we should be cautious not to draw illogical conclusions from them.
A better data point from my point of view is to spend a few days walking the docks and checking out how many boats of all shapes and sizes are for sale. Or check out marinas for available moorage. On the left coast at least there are vacancies all up and down from San Francisco to San Diego in marinas who for years had long waiting lists.
Sure, there are relative bargains to be had but unless you are buying for a complete change in lifestyle, scenery and country of residency, my advice would be to remain ultra conservative and wait a year or two and see which way the economic winds are blowing.
The great thing about CF is we are able to have differences of opinion and politely state our particular point of view. I have the greatest of respect for you and think it is valuable to share the kind of information you provided... we just happen to see things differently... cheers, Mate... Capt Phil

[Tom1340]

Sandy,
Thanks for posting this information. Too bad this report doesn't differentiate between Sail and Power, as the two markets may be leading separate lives. The statistics published on Feb 15 by Denison Yacht
Yacht Sales Report - January 2011 - Powerboats & Sailboat Sales Report | Denison Yacht Sales
indicated continuing delcines in the sailboat market, while the powerboat data hinted at stability.

[hellosailor]

Sandy, surely there are comparables (2009/10/11) for specific size ranges as well?

Why not just post the direct comparables and let's leave the whoppers out of it?

How many boats were sold, for what aggregate value, in each year, for the size ranges <26', 26-36', 36'-55' ? Or however they break up those size ranges?

[bathharbor]

Here are the problems with the stats quoted-

1) Yachtworld numbers are reported by brokers- a good number have values reported different than the actual sale . (pad the numbers)

2) the numbers reported only represent part of the boats sales- new boat sales not in the network are not included, private individual sales not included , auction and repos and non brokered bank sales are all not included. Federal documented boats are reported at time of the paperwork not the actual sale date.

3) It does not address the standing inventory and days and years that it has been for sale . There is one dealer in my area that has 2008 new boats still in his inventory.

4) why compare or is it a real ? . The world is a different place than even 3 or 4 years ago . bank lending , cost of materials and products have all changed . Bottom line is you determine your market and value. It is under continious change. If you own a boat it is going to be worth less in the future- alot less. If you don't own a boat you are in the best position to get one.

[slowshoes]

Originally Posted by Just BS

Let me preface my statement first by saying that I haven't read all of the post in this thread.

I was down around the marina's in San Diego's Spanish Landing this morning and I'll venture to guess that the slips there were 20% vacant.

The marina I'm at is about 50% vacant and is currently in foreclosure - anyone want to buy a marina?

[Capt Phil]

Amen, bathharbor... at least Sandy had some data to share which we all appreciate. I agree with your points but am shocked to think that marine brokers would pad the numbers... oh, the shame of it! I don't think I will ever be able to trust one again... Capt Phil

[capnorv]

I am currently sitting in the second most popular state marine park in Washington (Blake Island) during spring vacation week. There are two other boats on the island, which is unheard of! I believe many people can't afford to operate their boats, hence the vacant marinas, it's cheaper on the hard or dumpster. New boats are scarce, used boats for sale are plentiful, and brokers are starving...sounds like the housing/commercial markets...see a pattern. It is definitely a great buyers market, will it get more so, probably, but then you'll miss a great summer!

[sww914]

You know, I doubt that the boat market has turned up. See, I bought tech stocks once and that didn't work out well, I was a little late. Next, I decided to try real estate and we can guess how that's worked out for me. A couple of months ago I bought a boat so I can pretty much guarantee that the boat market graph will look like the flight path of a meteorite crashing to earth.
And I'm the guy with a smiling sun for an avatar?