Higher Fuel Prices Coming

[fjwiley1]

O no I just can't take this!!!! I'm going down to my boat, crank up my trusty 4-236 and Run....the sky is fallin......

Sorry, I forgot what someone else said....they been doin this for how many hundreds of years....

[captain58sailin]

higher next 7 months

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by beiland

The beginings of a big religious war

Iraqi Sunnis flock to recruiting centers to fight back ISIL - AhlulBayt News Agency - ABNA - Shia News

Iraq: Sunni Awakening Movement Won’t Save Country From ISIS - TIME

Not, indeed -- ISIS are also Sunnis. This is not a "big religious war", but a war of sensible Sunnis uniting with Shiites against wacko Sunnis.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by RokNRich

Found this thread searching for something else....a mere 7 months ago.

Next question, how low will it go ? Or is now the time to but (futures) ?

Futures could work if you expect volatility. And what if there is little?

I think we are low and I bet on either long term flatline or else a volatile upward trend.

45 is below some fracking costs, but these are easy to fold down and out. Expect some to go bankrupt 2015. I put the divorced guy up first on the list. For why else give all that cash to your ex?

It is also below budget lines for UAE, SA, Venezuela, Nigerian and RUSSIA. These will do everything they can to see the price go up asap. In case of Russia, this everything can mean anything.

You in a trawler?

b.

[Andy73]

Originally Posted by RokNRich

Found this thread searching for something else....a mere 7 months ago.

Next question, how low will it go ? Or is now the time to but (futures) ?

So I opened the thread and forgot to look at the posting date of the original posts. Thinking to myself...

WTF How did oil go back to $100 a barrel over the weekend?!?

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Futures could work if you expect volatility. And what if there is little?

I think we are low and I bet on either long term flatline or else a volatile upward trend.

45 is below some fracking costs, but these are easy to fold down and out. Expect some to go bankrupt 2015. I put the divorced guy up first on the list. For why else give all that cash to your ex?

It is also below budget lines for UAE, SA, Venezuela, Nigerian and RUSSIA. These will do everything they can to see the price go up asap. In case of Russia, this everything can mean anything.

You in a trawler?

b.

I'm no oil industry or futures expert, but are not the OPEC nations driving these prices down with the very objective of getting below production prices for some producers/methods?

Then, just run them back up again?

[RainDog]

I think it is Russia driving the price down.

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[St. Elsewhere]

I don't know where prices are going, but they are good at Cap Sante, Anacortes, WA right now.

Current Fuel Prices

Gallons Fuel -- < 100 > 100 > 750
Diesel ---------- $2.31 $2.23 $1.87
Diesel With Tax $2.51 $2.42 $2.03
Non Ethanol --- $2.78 $2.70

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by RainDog

I think it is Russia driving the price down.

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Well indirectly. Saudi Arabia continues to pump oil like there is no tomorrow to put pressure on Russia and Iran regarding their support of Syria. Russia is getting severely squeezed, given half their state budget comes from state ownership of oil and gas.

While the Saudis have fistfuls of cash reserves they can't keep this up forever. When they reduce the flow the price will go back up regardless of how much we pump at home. We may be inching towards self-sufficiency in the US but we're a long way from having that kind of influence on the market PPB.

Certainly more chaos in the middle east throws a wrench into the whole works. The Bush Doctrine is really working wonders on the whole spreading democracy thing, what a shocker.

[fjwiley1]

Many don't like my state. But, Jacksonville has $1.98 unleaded in many locations. The average seems to be $2.03. Not bad for a "Tourist" state with no State Income Tax for revenue.
Marina's obviously won't get "cheap" as the gas stations but do continue to come down slowly.







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[Tx J]

Originally Posted by RainDog

I think it is Russia driving the price down.

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Like Suijin noted, indirectly it's a factor. But much lower and Russia begins to destabilize (along with several others), or they lash out and destabilize somebody else.
None of this is 'accidental' (IMO), global economics are major factors, but I suspect some 'guiding hands' involved; far beyond what most think.
The current administration has a very subtle touch...

Some of the powers that formerly exercised much (undue) control over oil prices seem to have lost their grips.
Remember when the slightest turmoil in certain areas could gin up a lot of jingoistic 'flashbang', and generate a nice 'windfall' bump in oil prices (and profits)? Not so much lately...

Originally Posted by fjwiley1

Many don't like my state. But, Jacksonville has $1.98 unleaded in many locations. The average seems to be $2.03. Not bad for a "Tourist" state with no State Income Tax for revenue.
Marina's obviously won't get "cheap" as the gas stations but do continue to come down slowly.

sent from my iPad using Cruisers Sailing Forum

Just noticed $1.77 for reg/ul in my little rural S. TX town, and it's often 10-20 cents cheaper in the closest big cities. Diesel's been ~75 cents more per gl.

I've heard talk that oil might even get to the $20's/bbl (or lower), that's probably not actually a good thing today.
Around here in the Eagle Ford Shale Play, it's starting to go 'bust', after 3-4 years of serious 'boom'.

[newhaul]

This thread is funny now considering crude prices are at a 5 year low right now CLH5 Future Quote - Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) Mar 2015 Future Price Today (CLH5:NMN) - MarketWatch

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

I'm no oil industry or futures expert, but are not the OPEC nations driving these prices down with the very objective of getting below production prices for some producers/methods?

Then, just run them back up again?

Be very careful with "run them back again". See note at the bottom of this my comment.

When your national budget (income, not spending) is oil price dependent, you do not want to drive the prices too low for too long, or else you are blowing a huge hole in that budget and you get voted out (overthrown, in their case). This would be say SA case study. Sure, they do have huge reserves, but they will not last for ever. And SA king does not want to have any Arabian spring out there for sure.

Prices are supply/demand driven and OPEC is only one (if a serious one) driver. We could just as well state that it is the US that is trying to piss off Putin even more, both allegations being possibly maybe an explanation, and none being the explanation.

New US technologies are said to be very easy to fold down and deploy so try as one might, these prices will not harm new US oil in the long run. Production may stop now, but it will pick up where it stopped as soon as the prices bump up somewhat. Also, the new oil technologies are being intensively developed all time and their cost is going down year by year.

So, we will see if OPEC/whoever/etcetera can or cannot strangle the competition.

Supply is high and demand is low, that's sure for one.

BTW it is very easy for some to "run the prices back again". Just start another war in one of the countries that are a major supplier.

No brainer.

b.

[belizesailor]

I suspect the title will again be appropriate in the not too distant future. Prices are unlikely I think to go a lot lower. They are already below the production cost of some and seriously destabalizing some countries (like Venezuala)...both I suspect are objectives of this move.

Once they have their desired effect, the prices will come back up again...good time to horde crude oil! If you could horde, or buy futures, now at $40/bbl and sell when its back to $100/bbl....mighty nice return. Given the volumes of reserves the OPEC nations have, I suspect they will easily be able to recoup their losses and then some from this intentional market manipulation when prices rebound.

[Group9]

That's why I cruise on a sailboat instead of a powerboat.