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lorenzo b · 26-09-2009, 08:22

I'm 66 and I've been listening to people tell me that we're going to run out of oil all my life.At $2.50 a gallon there is enough oil in Canadian sand and shale deposits to supply the entire US market for 200 years! Vast new deposits are being found regularly throughout the world. Nations abutting the Arctic Ocean are salivating at the prospect of the ice melting.
I agree that it may not be a good idea to keep burning hydrocarbons at our present rate, but the awful truth is that there is an almost endless supply of cheap oil and gas out there and it's very likely that we will use it.

zeehag · 26-09-2009, 15:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by zumsel

I think, I believe, I hope I found her!

A beautiful 48' ketch. I have a copy of a recent survey from June 2009 which she passed with flying colours. The owner invested over the two last years heavily only to sell her now and buy a power boat. And the price is well within my budget.

Okay, but here is my question. As I plan to sail mostly up and down the east coast of Canada and the U.S, she has a 6' 6" draft! So I'm afraid most parts of the ICW are a no go area for me.

What do you all think?

nothing wrong with over 6 ft draft--my formosa is 6'6--i donot care about sailing florida-i am there in a friends boat--there are many places in fla that are deeper than 7 ft--just choose the path accordingly LOL...the virgins are amenable to deep draft---so why worry about fla?? i am currently anchored in a river in fla--is 10 ft mean low tide--what is soooo shallow about that?? LOL.....icw is not a sailing route anyway---so what if is shallow--that is not the reason to not got here--the height of the bridges is a reason to not go there LOL.....toooo short for many decent cruising boats....i would not worry about having a deep draft sailing boat-----there are places on icw that are able to be seen by folks with deep draft boats and high masted boats----is not a problem----deep water has more and cooler life forms in it anyway....gooood fishing, goood sailing and the virgins are not that far away once ye get started LOL....

mesquaukee · 26-09-2009, 20:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by lorenzo b

I'm 66 and I've been listening to people tell me that we're going to run out of oil all my life.At $2.50 a gallon there is enough oil in Canadian sand and shale deposits to supply the entire US market for 200 years! Vast new deposits are being found regularly throughout the world. Nations abutting the Arctic Ocean are salivating at the prospect of the ice melting.
I agree that it may not be a good idea to keep burning hydrocarbons at our present rate, but the awful truth is that there is an almost endless supply of cheap oil and gas out there and it's very likely that we will use it.

Oil in Saudi Arabia used to be found at 500 to 1500 feet. Now they are injecting seawater to help push out the remaining oil. Cantarell, the giant oil field in Mexico, is producing less and less every year, soon there will not be enough for export as domestic demand increases. The North Sea is declining, Britain used to export oil, soon Norway will stop exporting it.
The demand for oil in China and India is growing as they too wish to have cars. At $1800 for a cheap brand new car they are getting mobile, with little concern for safety or air quality.
Yes there is a lot of tar in the Canadian Tar Sands. There is also a lot of oil under 6000 feet of water in Brazil (and 3000 feet of rock and 6000 of feet of salt). The deepest well in the world was just drilled in the Gulf of Mexico, at 35,000 feet they found a little bit of oil (called it a giant well). Giant rig no doubt, definitely at a gigantic cost, that is a long string of drill rod (not the regular stuff).
Extreme measures to replace depleted or declining fields. The break even point for the readily assessable tar sands to be profitable (or the oil off of Brazil) a barrel of oil needs to be at least $80. Most of the tar sands are under a lot of a lot of overburden which is uneconomical to strip. To access this tar oil need to be over $100 a barrel.
This all will translate into $5 a gallon gasoline and eventually more as the current readily assessable oil is depleted.
All that oil sitting up in the nature refuge in Alaska would supply only 5% of the US demand for 10 years. Gulf of Mexico oil was supposed to save us. A few bad Hurricanes and where do the rigs and pipelines end up? At the bottom along with only 20% of the output as projected just a few short years ago.
The oil off of Brazil will only replace declining production elsewhere, it will not expand the supply.
Corn (ethanol) will not do it, it will only raise food prices (what will the pigs, chickens and cattle eat and where will we grow the grains and produce we eat.
There will always be oil. The question is how much ($)?
Perhaps a lot off ice needs to melt.

lorenzo b · 27-09-2009, 06:28

All of what you say is true, but are your conclusions? The amount of raw data on oil production and estimated reserves is vast. Trying to figure out what the future value of oil will be is the holy grail for an army of specialists far smarter than I am.
Some interesting indicators might be;
Resources invested in exploration
Changes in refining capacity
shipbuilding of tankers and life expectancy of existing stock
and of course the futures market
just to mention a few

I, for one, have always advocated for $5 a gal fuel. Oil has been historically so cheap that we waste insane amounts of it. But my best guess is that it will hang around $2,50 to $3 for some time to come.

Hurricane Harry · 27-09-2009, 06:35

Basically cost of fuel is the difference in the long run./ Harry

osirissail · 27-09-2009, 07:32

- - We just finished watching the BBC series "Walking with Dinosaurs" and they ruled for over 200 million years - and - the planet Earth was without any ice anywhere (maybe some glaciers or volcanic peak ice). The poles where tropical rain forests where the majority of dinosaurs and others migrated to in the summer season as it was too hot in the equatorial regions. So - - the oil companies must dancing jigs with the "global warming" we are experiencing - there must be giga-whatever reserves of oil under all the polar ice just waiting for some "warm weather" to melt it.

cat man do · 27-09-2009, 16:57

Big thread here
http://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/...ison-5152.html

Relating to this boat here.

I took the shed roof of for repairs and its the first time I have seen the side profile, so I get to play with flybridge and striping styling before it goes back up on the weekend.

The dirty grey boat in desperate need of a wash after the duststorms here is what is there now.

cat man do · 27-09-2009, 17:09

Fuel cost from this site Cruising under power in a converted fishing boat

cruising under power actual costs

Quote:

On Lifeline we travel at 7 knots at 1150RPM, which gives us fuel economy of 8 litres (2 US gallons) per hour or about 3 tenths of a gallon to go 1 nautical mile.

Quote:

15 Sep. 2002: After cruising the boat for twelve months we are consistently getting 7 - 8 litres per hour at 7 knots (1100 RPM) and we are ecstatic!!

This is on this vessel Powered by a Gardner 6LX, coupled with a 38inch propeller

mesquaukee · 27-09-2009, 18:45

There probably is oil up there. Good thing we have boats with all that ice melting. I will definitely be sailing my boat up there, the Caribbean might be too hot. Charts will be fun!

Cheechako · 28-09-2009, 08:33

"I plan to sail mostly up and down the east coast of Canada and the U.S, she has a 6' 6" draft! So I'm afraid most parts of the ICW are a no go area for me...."
It can be done. I did it with 6'5" draft. crunched pretty hard a few places in the ditch. Be sure to have Seatow Insurance! The Bahamas can be done also, it'll limit you a little bit but not too bad really... I would much prefer less draft, but if that's your boat... so be it!

Not Sure · 01-10-2009, 20:37

Speaking as someone who lived for several years in south Florida, 6' 6" is a lot of draft for those waters. Unless you plan on investing in depthfinder and chartplotter stock and keeping one of each nearby with one eye on it at all times, I would seriously consider looking for a shoal keel boat if you plan on spending much time around Florida, the Keys, the Gulf, etc. Yes, you can sail a deep keel in those waters...but why would you want to when so much of the area is shallow?

bosunj · 16-10-2009, 04:52

Whatever the state of geopolitics you can count on fuel going up rather drastically if you're earning USD especially. CAD is 1.03 now. Fuel is 18 cents a gallon delivered to your boat at anchor in Porlamar, Isla Margarita, Venezuela. Even spending USD everything is very cheap there especially compared to USVI. The US and British run isles are tourist slums and designed to take you down hard. Too much silliness with clearing too. I've found the Dutch side of St. Martin excellent. My favorite places in Caribbean are Point de Bout, Martinique and Bequia.

As for dragging 6.5 ft of draft around FL why worry. Its another place that hates the tourists it needs to survive and takes transiting vessels down hard. Its not on the way to the Caribbean from Nova Scotia anyway. If you must make land fall prior to making St. Martin the Abacos in Bahama are excellent. Marsh Harbor can take 6.5 feet right to the fuel dock. The fuel barge that delivers from Nassau is deeper than that and pushes mud the last third of the harbor except on a spring tide. Man-O-War Cay has good holding and plenty of depth in American Harbor as well as moorings and Albury's Boat Yard does great work if you need or want it.

An excellent choice for a great boat is one of Geo. Buehler's Diesel Ducks built at Seahorse Marine in Hong Kong that are proven and excellent passage makers. 46' is 600k duty paid fully loaded delivered East Coast or 100k less fully loaded factory direct. Boat is huge! A 41' is here:

SEAHORSE MARINE

I have no affiliation with either Geo. Buehler or Seahorse. The Seahorse is my dream boat. If it were me I'd get the 462 spec'd with a Junk rig in the forepeak
as both a steadying sail and sail assist to reduce fuel costs.

Most sailing vessels will use the engine more than they sail. One spends 90% of cruising time on the hook anyway. Like Geo. Buehler says its better to go now in whatever you can afford rather than never go waiting for the perfect boat.

Have fun whatever your decision is.

CDNRower · 20-11-2018, 07:17

It's too bad that this thread is now nearly a decade dormant. It's been a good read.

aussiemick01 · 09-02-2019, 05:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by mesquaukee

When this recession is over and the economy gets moving again we will have triple digit barrels of oil again. Gas and diesel will double or more in price. A growing economy uses a lot of fuel moving all those goods.
Sails and equipment can be repaired while waiting for a favorable wind. Diesel fuel cannot be repaired.

Well this aged poorly. ;^)