Boat sales and the coming reccesion.

[NPCampbell]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Since the Definition of Recession now says we ain't in one, I don't worry.
Plus the same people that told us Inflation was Transitory are running the show, why are you guys being so Negative? Build Back Better will save us.

I'll be waiting with bated breath for those 8 guys in the NBER to pow wow and roll their 20 sided die to determine if we are in a recession. There's no room for politics to sway the outcome there! Meanwhile the rest of the world uses a simple formula.

[crankysailor]

Originally Posted by Jolly Roger

I don’t know what to make of all this, except its speculation based on prepositions. So here's a different take...
I was going to sell my schooner and buy a “trawler,” but I’ve changed my mind. I plan to keep her, so when the politics turn even nastier than they are now, I can sail away, into the blue yonder to seek a more tranquil place.
Rather than all the gloom about boat prices, I think the gloom of authoritarianism hangs over America like the sword of Damocles, and if it drops, fine liveaboards like mine will be in great demand, because Americans will have a lot more to worry about than their boats.

You know I used to think like this until covid came and everyone closed borders prohibited sailing and even "quarantined" cruisers on their boats indefinitely... unless you have a watermaker and can truly live off the sea for months at a time, seems like boats as a prepper alternative when Armageddon comes didn't work during the last apocalypse rehearsal

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by crankysailor

You know I used to think like this until covid came and everyone closed borders prohibited sailing and even "quarantined" cruisers on their boats indefinitely... unless you have a watermaker and can truly live off the sea for months at a time, seems like boats as a prepper alternative when Armageddon comes didn't work during the last apocalypse rehearsal

When did anyone with a vestige of sanity consider a modern sailing boat as a refuge in a crisis.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by shimari

There were five Amel 50's (2022 sold now, 2021, 2020, 2019, and a 2018) for sale until a few days ago. The price of all of them is probably roughly what the owners paid for them (if not more for the '18 and '19).



I can't remember the number of boats the yard produces a year, but this many for sale at once is pretty surprising. It's a definite sign that things are slowing.

This bears out what I said , the higher end buyer ( Amels are very expensive boats ) are getting cautious and there some very good deals in that sector with selling prices often well below asking.

The same is not true in the sub 200 K market , demand remains high and asking prices are holding up. Whether this holds up remains to be seen. I think it will until a glut of Covid boats reappears on the market.

[Rumrace]

Shocking!
It should be reported to the Royal Society for putting thing on top of other things.

[AKA-None]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

When did anyone with a vestige of sanity consider a modern sailing boat as a refuge in a crisis.

Did you forget that whole thread we had last year?

[argosail]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

This bears out what I said , the higher end buyer ( Amels are very expensive boats ) are getting cautious and there some very good deals in that sector with selling prices often well below asking.

The same is not true in the sub 200 K market , demand remains high and asking prices are holding up. Whether this holds up remains to be seen. I think it will until a glut of Covid boats reappears on the market.

From what I see prices in 70s/80s boats hovers in the 10k to 30k range and 90s/00s in the 30k to 100k range. The 70s/80s don't have much wiggle room to go down, perhaps the 90s/00s do but not at the lower end.

[clamshack]

So, is this glut of cruising sailing boats a real thing? Ya there are some bloggers/YouTubers promoting, but how much of that audience really got out cruising?

It’s a royal pain in the ass to find and outfit a boat :-). It also can be a steep learning curve. Over the past two years I’d imagine a lot of sales were just recycles that never made it off the dock.

My take is the amount of supply that is tied up in this COVID craze is relatively small. The vast majority of the inventory is tied up at a dock somewhere, so someone can say they own a sailboat.

Additionally in an inflation period a lot of people hold on to hard assets even ones notorious for depreciation.

In any event the next couple of years should be interesting.

[argosail]

Originally Posted by clamshack

So, is this glut of cruising sailing boats a real thing? Ya there are some bloggers/YouTubers promoting, but how much of that audience really got out cruising?

It’s a royal pain in the ass to find and outfit a boat :-). It also can be a steep learning curve. Over the past two years I’d imagine a lot of sales were just recycles that never made it off the dock.

My take is the amount of supply that is tied up in this COVID craze is relatively small. The vast majority of the inventory is tied up at a dock somewhere, so someone can say they own a sailboat.

Additionally in an inflation period a lot of people hold on to hard assets even ones notorious for depreciation.

In any event the next couple of years should be interesting.

Brokers aren't stupid though, if there is a glut, it'll be partially trimmed to have the dead weight boats on the hard for years. I had one say that he knows a yard with half a dozen """bargains""" not on the market when I didn't agree to asking price for one of his boats but I have no desire to work a year on restoring a boat.

But honestly who really knows how big this glut is.

[clamshack]

Originally Posted by argosail

Brokers aren't stupid though, if there is a glut, it'll be partially trimmed to have the dead weight boats on the hard for years. I had one say that he knows a yard with half a dozen """bargains""" not on the market when I didn't agree to asking price for one of his boats but I have no desire to work a year on restoring a boat.

But honestly who really knows how big this glut is.

I was trying to get a look at a boat for sale in Northern FL, when the owners decided to take off for Key West. It had some cruising hardware and looked in good shape. I just found it on the hard in rural NC. I guess the owners went back to work and wrote it off. They still have it listed for the same price, but now with a local NC broker. It looks like it aged 10 years in the last 1.

[argosail]

Originally Posted by clamshack

I was trying to get a look at a boat for sale in Northern FL, when the owners decided to take off for Key West. It had some cruising hardware and looked in good shape. I just found it on the hard in rural NC. I guess the owners went back to work and wrote it off. They still have it listed for the same price, but now with a local NC broker. It looks like it aged 10 years in the last 1.

This is another problem, you'll have a glut stored on the yard but the people that own may not be in financial dire straits to sell and will be content to let it languish for years sadly....

[TPG]

Interesting graphs. The catamaran market is still crazy at least here in the U.S. and some monohulls are experiencing the same high demand from what I see.

And I can second other comments here in FL regarding marinas, all of them appear to be full and waiting lists are growing.

Where all of this will lead is a great question.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

Did you forget that whole thread we had last year?

You mean the sail boat as “prepper” refuge nonsense

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by argosail

Brokers aren't stupid though, if there is a glut, it'll be partially trimmed to have the dead weight boats on the hard for years. I had one say that he knows a yard with half a dozen """bargains""" not on the market when I didn't agree to asking price for one of his boats but I have no desire to work a year on restoring a boat.

But honestly who really knows how big this glut is.

Almost everyone I know believes the purchase frenzy post Covid is a bubble and will unwind. This is now helped along by the financial uncertainty around us.

What many cant predict is the timing and extent of the unwinding. Wishful thinking purchasers are not good judges unfortunately.

[TiPegleg]

This only really tracks with “normal” boats. I’m a metal French-type centerboard guy and even though I have my boat, I still track the market. These boats are at record prices and in incredible demand. A single vague post to the Ovni Facebook group with a possible boat for sale creates an instant storm. If I wanted to sell my boat right now I’d easily see twice what I paid a year ago not counting recent upgrades. From what I’ve seen, interest in “rugged” cruisers is on the rise… I don’t think this ties at all to the mainstream commodity boat market since the buyers of these boats are maybe more “serious” and have the means to go without YouTube?