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Wand · 17-12-2011, 03:03

Most boaties know that the weatherman cannot be trusted. Today was a classic example of why we ought always to make our own judgements before shoving off.

The forecast late this morning for local metropolitan waters was for winds NNW easing to 10-15 knots after midday. No warnings were issued. Well, at 3pm it was blowing NNE 30-35 knots at Outer Harbor (official readings) with gusts to 40 knots.

I'm old enough to know the dangers of thundery squalls this time of year; it's a pity the bureau doesn't.

sailorboy1 · 17-12-2011, 04:52

guess the dartboard left the weatherman down that day

**skipmac** · 17-12-2011, 07:39

Well, as we all know, the weather report is just a very general guideline. Maybe as much art as science.

Wand · 17-12-2011, 20:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by skipmac

Well, as we all know, the weather report is just a very general guideline. Maybe as much art as science.

Very general all right (15kn v 35kn); you'd never want to rely on them.

My post was prompted by Mr B's recent misfortune posted on this site, where he (reluctantly) relied on the forecast of nor'westerlies before a southerly sector blow put him on the rocks.

As most boaties know, and I'm sure Mr B also, we have to become amateur weathermen ourselves; and while we may not be right any more often than the professionals, at least then we can own our errors.

afro · 17-12-2011, 20:59

Weather forecasting now relies on digital data. Compare the two between a weather forecast and a boaties' forcast...my vote will be on the second.
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Ram · 18-12-2011, 04:25

You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows-

Get sick, get well
Hang around a ink well
Ring bell, hard to tell
If anything is goin’ to sell
Try hard, get barred
Get back, write braille
Get jailed, jump bail
Join the army, if you fail
Look out kid
You’re gonna get hit-by Bob Dylan

moggie · 18-12-2011, 04:42

40+ years in aviation, so many wrong predictions, forecasts. Their excuse was that it was an inexact science, so I would ask them why they got paid so much? If I had got my job wrong as often as them I would not be here now!

**skipmac** · 18-12-2011, 05:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by At sea

Very general all right (15kn v 35kn); you'd never want to rely on them.

My post was prompted by Mr B's recent misfortune posted on this site, where he (reluctantly) relied on the forecast of nor'westerlies before a southerly sector blow put him on the rocks.

As most boaties know, and I'm sure Mr B also, we have to become amateur weathermen ourselves; and while we may not be right any more often than the professionals, at least then we can own our errors.

Used to live in south Florida and once or twice a year cross the Gulf Stream to the Bahamas. You could usually bet that whatever the weather forecast said it would not be what you would see in the crossing. Weather says 15 kt wind and seas 2-4' you could see anything from 5 kts and 1-2' to 25 kts and 6-8'.

Two forecasts you could be on being completely correct:

Summer. A hurricane is heading somewhere within +/- 100 miles of your area with winds from 50-120 kts arriving in 3-7 days.

Winter. A cold front is headed south and may may not reach south Florida within 1-4 days with winds from somewhere between S to W to N at 10-30 kts.

These forecasts were usually right on.

sailorboy1 · 18-12-2011, 05:41

There are 2 weather bouys in my normal sailing area and they are only about 25 miles apart. The weather at each will be a lot different most of the time if the weather is doing anything. But both of these bouys are in the same forecast zone on the NOAA site so are covered by the same forecast.

I find that the best forecast is to read what the general forecast is and then check the current and past conditions at the bouys.

It's like when I'm driving in the car and it's been raining for 2 hours; the local weather forecast comes and on says there is a chance of rain for the day.........Dud!