Wind Speed And Wave Size. How Big Is Too Big?

[SonjaD]

Thanks for the very interesting discussion everyone and cool little vids, micah. As crew, it's good to have some insight into the skipper's decision making process.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Bash

That may be the smartest thing ever said on this forum.

Thank you. It took me a few times of getting my butt kicked to figure that one out.

[GordMay]

Why are ocean waves getting bigger?

Bigger waves are a phenomenon that has been observed, all across the world, and can be attributed to the warming climate.
Waves are getting bigger, more powerful, and the weather is getting more extreme.
So, that's going to have more impact on shorelines, and facilities [cruisers use], such as docks & marinas.

“Waves ride on top of the sea level, which is rising due to climate change,” said study [1] lead author Peter Bromirski. “When sea levels are elevated even further during storms, more wave energy can potentially reach vulnerable sea cliffs, flood low-lying regions, or damage coastal infrastructure.” [such as marinas]

Global warming puts increased energy in the atmosphere, resulting in stronger storms, with intensified winds, that generate increased wave heights. Further increases in wave activity, along coasts, will potentially follow, aggravating issues from higher tides, associated with sea level rise.

On the coast of California, average winter wave heights have increased by almost one foot, since 1970, when scientists claim the Earth started warming at an accelerated pace, according to a study published in JGR Oceans. [2]

The occurrence of large wave swells, of at least 13 feet are also "happening a lot more often, occurring at least twice as often from 1996 to 2016 than from 1949 to 1969".[1]

As sea level rises and the waves get bigger, you get an aggravated effect, in terms of coastal impacts. Because of this, coastal areas will become increasingly unsafe to inhabit, and may require people to relocate further inland.

[1] “Increasing ocean wave energy observed in Earth’s seismic wavefield since the late 20th century” ~ by Richard C. Aster et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s414...d0a82b82c#Sec6

[2] “Climate-Induced Decadal Ocean Wave Height Variability From Microseisms: 1931–2021" ~ by Peter D. Bromirski
➥ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley....9/2023JC019722

[MicHughV]

It's all good and well to plan a departure according to the weather....

But what do you do when the doodoo hits the fan and you are 500 miles offshore ??

[SailingHarmonie]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

It's all good and well to plan a departure according to the weather....

But what do you do when the doodoo hits the fan and you are 500 miles offshore ??

You put your big boy pants on and deal with it.

Every ocean crossing boat needs to plan for, and be prepared for, prolonged storm force winds. You can hope you’ll never see them, but “hope is not a plan.”

If you can’t deal with that, you do not belong out of range of accurate weather forecasts.

[MicHughV]

you put your big boy pants on and deal with it.

Exactly !!!!

[Sailer_Med]

For the area we typically sail, I prioritize sea state. Not unusual to have 1-1.5 M waves at 3.5 to 4.5 seconds. The boat can handle it no problem, but the passengers and crew...ugh!

I tend to look at fetch and windspeed alot as well since the models don't always get the sea state: especially local effects.

[davefromoregon]

Originally Posted by Sailer_Med

For the area we typically sail, I prioritize sea state. Not unusual to have 1-1.5 M waves at 3.5 to 4.5 seconds. The boat can handle it no problem, but the passengers and crew...ugh!

I tend to look at fetch and windspeed alot as well since the models don't always get the sea state: especially local effects.

That sounds like a washing machine. The wave heights are not terrible but 3.5-4.5 does sound brutal.

[rognvald]

It depends on depth of water, previous/prevailing winds, and sail inventory. We've sailed happily offshore on our approach to Virgin Gorda in 15-20 foot benign ocean swells aft in 10-12 knots but were beat to death crossing Lake Ontario in 15-20 N-NW winds with 4-6 foot square-faced waves on a close reach in 30 feet of water. It also depends on how much your crew can handle. I sail with my 120 lb wife who, although athletic, has her limits of endurance and strength. I respect that and its why we have sailed happily together since 1989. The only way to determine what you can take is to test your boat and your skills in varying conditions. It will change over time.
Rognvald

[wholybee]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

It's all good and well to plan a departure according to the weather....

But what do you do when the doodoo hits the fan and you are 500 miles offshore ??

500nm is only a 3-4 day sail, and weather reports are really go for 3-4 days. So, I assume this is the end of a 2000nm sail.

Heave to and wait it out. You do not want to make landfall in doodoo, as you describe it.