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13-06-2016, 19:41
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#31
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 33
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
NZ is a paradise. Second prettiest country I ever visited. My sympathies to the family of the people who were killed or lost.
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13-06-2016, 21:11
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#32
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bellingham
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 9,319
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Pinguino
That boat was in the Brin Wilson shed at the same time as mine... fire damage was restricted to the deckhouse saloon area .. nowhere else. It was a big $1M NZ dollar refit.
Nothing wrong with the boat.... EDIT .. 'after Wilsons had finished with her'
Wind speeds when it happened? 100/150 knots? as quoted by other racing crews? Whatever.......
There was a bit of a low , not deep, but possibly deep enough to kick up a nasty cross sea over the underlying swell.
You can see the low on the first pic, current conditions in the second..... I wonder if the gribs even picked that low up at the time.
The area north of NZ is as nasty a bit of water as any on the planet.
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If you look at the ASCAT sat data it shows 30kts and maybe a bit more
__________________
Paul
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13-06-2016, 22:40
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#33
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bellingham
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 9,319
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Remaing crew picked up by container ship. Lost crewmen named.
national/386770/search-resumes-dead-yachtie-named
__________________
Paul
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13-06-2016, 22:55
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#34
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Halifax
Posts: 455
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by reed1v
Guess you never sailed in a hurricane before. 90-100 mph winds are strong but a well founded boat should have no problems dealing with it. In those winds you either hove to; or ride with a storm sail. Of course some folks, like Turner, just keep sailing with deep reefs.
Interestingly as the wind rises up to the 140+ mph range, the seas actually flatten out. Most folks at that point just drop all sails, batten down, and let the boat assume its natural stance. Of course a full keeled boat will handle this way better than fin keeled or centerboard boats.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM
An experienced Force 13 hurricane sailor like you should at least know that it is "heave to". 
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I guess then the key when you're getting pounded in a Force 11 wind is too head deeper into the storm and find the Force 13's. I didn't know that before.
Quote:
Originally Posted by El Pinguino
Dead sailor is Nick Saull, head of Brin Wilson Boat Builders.
He was in charge of my boat's big overhaul in 14/15.
A top bloke.
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That brings it a little closer to home, doesn't it? I'm very sorry for his family's loss and for those who knew and respected him.
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13-06-2016, 23:17
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#35
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tasmania, Australia
Boat: Bieroc 36 foot Ketch
Posts: 4,956
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul L
If you look at the ASCAT sat data it shows 30kts and maybe a bit more
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Does that take into consideration the possible 40% on top?
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13-06-2016, 23:34
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#36
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bellingham
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 9,319
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic Charm
Does that take into consideration the possible 40% on top?
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I'm not sure what level of averaging is done on these reading. They are adjusted to 10m neutral stability.
__________________
Paul
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13-06-2016, 23:46
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#37
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 847
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic Charm
Does that take into consideration the possible 40% on top?
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It's a measurement not a GRIB computer model forecast.
There is some error but not 40%.
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14-06-2016, 00:14
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#38
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Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43 and OPBs
Posts: 12,891
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul L
I'm not sure what level of averaging is done on these reading. They are adjusted to 10m neutral stability.
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"Equivalent Neutral Wind speeds 10 meters above the water surface, derived from surface roughness (wind stress), roughly equivalent to an 8 - 10 minute mean surface wind."
So yep, I'd expect to see up to 40% higher in gusts.
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14-06-2016, 00:17
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#39
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Registered User

Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Port Moresby,Papua New Guinea
Boat: FP Belize Maestro 43 and OPBs
Posts: 12,891
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Littlechay
It's a measurement not a GRIB computer model forecast.
There is some error but not 40%.
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It's a model extrapolation based simply on the overall sea surface roughness of a fairly large expanse of ocean.
Fine for climatology, but not a good indication of conditions at a specfic time in a specfic spot. It certainly won't tell you about gusts.
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14-06-2016, 00:34
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#40
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 847
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by StuM
It's a model extrapolation based simply on the overall sea surface roughness of a fairly large expanse of ocean.
Fine for climatology, but not a good indication of conditions at a specfic time in a specfic spot. It certainly won't tell you about gusts.
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I know what it is. It is the best your going to get apart from having a proper weather station there though.
When we talk about wind strength we don't talk about gusts. There is no rule that says that gusts will be 40% higher, they might be 40% higher than gradient, they might be much more than that too. If conditions stable there might not be any significant gusts, it might just be F..ing windy.
Yes it should be a 10 minute average (except in the US and some other places where they use a 1 minute average which leads to some confusion) and it should be measured at 10m or normalised to 10m for which there are formulas that very few people apply to their masthead wind instruments.
Quoting maximum gusts, not having instruments corrected for height, and many people not having much experience at sailing in higher wind speeds contributes to most of the absolute BS we hear about wind speed in boating circles.
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14-06-2016, 00:39
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#41
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tasmania, Australia
Boat: Bieroc 36 foot Ketch
Posts: 4,956
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Marine Wind Forecast
These wind forecast maps are produced from computer models and may not always reflect official forecasts, especially in the vicinity of weather fronts or Tropical Cyclones.
These maps show average wind speeds. Wind gusts may be 40% stronger.
About forecast wind
This is what I was referring too
Marine Wind Forecast
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14-06-2016, 00:49
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#42
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Bellingham
Boat: Outbound 44
Posts: 9,319
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re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rustic Charm
Marine Wind Forecast
These wind forecast maps are produced from computer models and may not always reflect official forecasts, especially in the vicinity of weather fronts or Tropical Cyclones.
These maps show average wind speeds. Wind gusts may be 40% stronger.
About forecast wind
This is what I was referring too
Marine Wind Forecast
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ASCAT is not a forecast. It is satellite based measurement. Very handy to check on how accurate a GRIB was.
__________________
Paul
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14-06-2016, 02:39
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#43
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Tasmania, Australia
Boat: Bieroc 36 foot Ketch
Posts: 4,956
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Re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul L
ASCAT is not a forecast. It is satellite based measurement. Very handy to check on how accurate a GRIB was.
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Ok  cheers
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14-06-2016, 12:54
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#44
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: home town Wellington, NZ and Savusavu Fiji
Boat: Reinke S10 & Raven 26
Posts: 1,492
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Re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
__________________
Grant Mc
The cure for everything is salt water: sweat, tears or the sea. Yeah right, I wish.
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14-06-2016, 14:47
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#45
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: San Francisco Bay area
Boat: Condor Trimaran 30 foot
Posts: 1,499
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Re: Merged Thread: New Zealand Yacht with One Deceased and Another Missing
No matter how we look at extrapolations and nit pick over this and that...two experienced sailors are claimed by Davey Jones. Over the years I can't keep track of how many fatalities and rescues occurred in that area of the world. I am so sorry for these men who lost their lives and the families who must go it alone without them. What a mess for all concerned. RIP.
Boats break in big seas all the time. They fall off of waves. They get stuffed and stopped suddenly. It doesn't take a hurricane. You also have to factor in fatigue and sea sickness affecting the crews. Things flaying around in even a forty mph wind can be lethal. The boom breaks at the goose neck on a large boat like this...the shizzle is on. I got hit in the head with a shackle many years ago in just beer can racing in 20 knots of wind and went slack in the knees. It happened so quickly. These poor guys lost their lives due to gear failure. Horrific.
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