Cyclone Prep

[vayacondios]

Currently at anchor in Queensland Australia, expect Cyclone Ului to hit this weekend. Interested in opinions on best position. We are behind a large island (Fraiser) in the Sandy Straights. The question is, would it be better for a catamaran to be dried out on a sand bank in a mangrove creek, or in the water with two anchors out in a creek. We have choices as to what we could do if it is a direct hit, but isn't there some advantage to being in the water (water tension on boat).
Appreciate any advise on this.

[fishwife]

With the surge you can expect, I'd doubt if your sandbank will stay dry In the mangroves afloat, with many lines ashore plus two, three or even four anchors wouldn't be overdoing it. The trick is not to end up with your boat being damaged by others that haven't secured their boat as well as you

[vayacondios]

Thanks, good point, I didn't think about the storm surge. We are anchored in an area with only a few other boats, away from any harbor or marina. No unattended boats. We have good protection from the high island, and all sand and mud around so soft landings if we drag. I think I feel better afloat. Fingers crossed, it will fade away.

[s/v Moondancer]

My Corsair F 31tri survived, without damage, 2 cat II's and 2 Cat I's tied bow to in the mangroves in Florida. A total of 8 lines and 2 stern anchors. I tried to estimate the possible surge and leave enough slack for the boat to rise. I flooded the ama to stop it becoming a plane and stripped all sails and the bimini.

If the boat is to be subjected to wave action the water must be deep enough to prevent the boat bouncing on the bottom.

And I was in a large concrete building with a generator and a bar.

[vayacondios]

Thanks Moondancer, I have plenty of lines and 2 anchors, just need to sit and see where it lands. It's a waiting game.

[svstrider]

Originally Posted by vayacondios

Currently at anchor in Queensland Australia, expect Cyclone Ului to hit this weekend. Interested in opinions on best position. We are behind a large island (Fraiser) in the Sandy Straights.

Exactly where are you in the Great Sandy Strait?

1. Any of the creeks near Snapper Creek in Tin Can Bay are good cyclone holes.
2. Umbakumba Creek on the northern end of Fraser's west coast up in Hervey Bay would be ideal but is probably too far away unless the wind is right for the trip.
3. head up the Mary River and get into the mangroves at the entrance (sandfly heaven though)

Agree construct a spider web of ropes to the mangroves. Both fore & aft but don't forget to leave scope for tidal surge & if the eye passes over be prepared for wind reversal.
Remove all sails & bimini. Flood the tender & consider flooding the bow compartments if you have a crash bulkhead.
I thought that at the moment that the cyclone is forecast to cross much further north. Fingers crossed.

[cat man do]

Windy and wet but no need to panic
18th March 2010



Rockhampton rather than Fraser Coast residents are in the line of Cyclone Ului, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

A WINDY, wet weekend is in the offing for the Fraser Coast – but preparing for a full-blown cyclone is unlikely to be necessary.

Instead it is the residents of Rockhampton and hinterland that are most likely to bear the brunt of Cyclone Ului, which last night moved to a Category 4.

Confusion reigned on Lady Elliot Island yesterday with the word “evacuation” in the air.

However, reports of fine weather on the islands filtered through as the day ran its course.

The weather bureau said Ului could cross the Qld coast this weekend and islands on the Great Barrier Reef are braced for dangerous swells. A gale wind warning between Burnett Heads and St Lawrence was issued yesterday afternoon, while a strong wind warning for Hervey Bay endured.

The high that has sat over the Tasman Sea all week remained in place, while slow-moving Ului was about 650 nautical miles northeast of Mackay.

It has not deviated from its predicted path that will see it move slowly southwards today before veering southwest near the Central Coast tomorrow.

The combination of the high and the tropical cyclone will result in large swells developing in our waters from tomorrow.

Windy and wet but no need to panic | Fraser Coast News | Local News in Fraser Coast | Fraser Coast Chronicle

44ftCC will be glad to have his roof of the shed and boat in the water

Going on the above news article I doubt you would even feel the wind in somewhere like Garry's anchorage

[Laidback]

Originally Posted by vayacondios

Currently at anchor in Queensland Australia, expect Cyclone Ului to hit this weekend. Interested in opinions on best position. We are behind a large island (Fraiser) in the Sandy Straights. The question is, would it be better for a catamaran to be dried out on a sand bank in a mangrove creek, or in the water with two anchors out in a creek. We have choices as to what we could do if it is a direct hit, but isn't there some advantage to being in the water (water tension on boat).
Appreciate any advise on this.

The current forecast is for Ului to make landfall just west of the Whitsundays on Saturday 20th March. Where you have your boat, it is unlikely that the outer wind bands of Ului will bother you - your winds will first be felt from the South, then from the East and finally out of 065 degrees true.
I would anchor in a creek with 2 anchors and if possible couple of lines to trees on the bank.
If you take the cat on to a sand bank - the danger maybe that a surge will push you higher and you won't be able to get off when the surge disappears.

[vayacondios]

Thanks for the feedback, Makes sense that being in the water would be safer than drying out. Unless you were chained down some place above any possible storm surge. No thanks..

We are at Gary's anchorage, the Tin Can Bay Coast guard told us that was the best place, better than Carlo Creek where we were and Snapper creek. They said shelter from NW to NE. And another yachtie said wind would come from the south at first. So Gary's seems pretty well covered.

Been watching the weather, and for ourselves we would like the cyclone to pass very far from us, but I hate to see any coastal communities hit. Hopefully it can pass where there is the least population.

We just got our boat in January, so are new to Queensland, Cyclones, Cruising, and all of this. Thanks again. Rozzie

[chala]

I like this one, it give you that nice little chill in the back of the spine.
quote:
"FORECAST
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots within 45 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 70 nautical miles of centre with high to very high
seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles in northern semicircle
and within 160 nautical miles in southern semicircle with very rough seas."

[chala]

Some previous tracks.
Grib files can also be of use for wind forecast.

[Laidback]

Thanks Chala, For the previous cyclone tracks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Australia's Bureau of Metiorology have specialist units forecasting Cyclones and Typhoons and with satellite imagery provide very accurate forecasts.
------------------
Here is the Latest from Brisbane's Cyclone Warning Centre :
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0115 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.7S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [225 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/4.0/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1200: 18.1S 155.4E: 035 [065]: 055 [100]: 982
+24: 20/0000: 19.2S 153.1E: 060 [110]: 055 [100]: 983
+36: 20/1200: 19.9S 150.6E: 090 [165]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 21/0000: 20.4S 147.7E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 994
+60: 21/1200: 20.5S 145.5E: 150 [280]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 22/0000: 20.4S 143.0E: 180 [335]: 025 [045]: 1003
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to increasing
northwesterly wind shear of about 20 knots. Dvorak analysis based on shear
pattern, the low level circulation being on the northern edge of the deep
convection yielding a DT of 3.0, MET=2.5, PT=3.0 so DT=3.0 with CI being held
higher at 4.0 and max wind at 60 knots. This is consistent with latest AMSU
estimates. ASCAT shows region of 50+ knots and asymmetric gale region biased to
the south.

It now appears the shear will remain a factor in hampering any possible
re-development, although forecast intensity conservatively held at category 2
through to landfall. The increased speed of motion should enhance winds on the
southern side of the cyclone.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/0700 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
---------------------
The very latest has ULUI's Eye landing in Upstart Bay.


And here is the latest Graphic from the JTWC

[Laidback]

Latest forecast at 1000 GMT Sat 20

[chala]

Wind.................Dir..........Speed.....Gust.. ....Speed.......Gust..PressQNH Date/TimeEST.......................km/h.......knots............................hPa
21/01:04am......... ESE........132........165........71......... 89..........977.9
21/01:00am..........SE......... 156........189........84..........102........977.9
21/12:57am..........SE..........161........189....... 87..........102........975.9
21/12:54am..........SE......... 137........169........74..........91......... -
21/12:45am ESE 165 193 89 104 -
21/12:43am ESE 143 169 77 91 979.0
21/12:42am SE 163 195 88 105 978.9
21/12:41am SE 172 195 93 105 976.8
21/12:30am SE 145 202 78 109 -
21/12:27am SE 139 180 75 97 980.8
21/12:10am SE 143 183 77 99 983.3
21/12:00am SSE 145 178 78 96 985.3

Nice wind at Hamilton Island. I bet Nicolle and Mark are glad not to be there.

[svstrider]

here is a link to story
Cyclone Ului re-intensifies to category 3; crosses coast at 1.30am Sunday | Courier Mail
The cyclone crossed around 0130 hrs at Airlie Beach. Around a dozen yachts were washed into the rocks at Whitsunday sailing Club including ex Sydney to Hobart yacht "Anaconda II". Ului was a cat 3 when she crossed.