Can Sailors Learn to Go sailing Without Socializing?

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

Where Chris is based, Mike, lots of folks are weekend warriors, being delivered to t heir moored boats by a tender service, sailing to a nearby cove where they pick up a mooring and settle in for some serious drinking. There's not much shore access in most of those places, so no great incentive to have a dink while they are there, and then it's back to the mooring and the tender service.

Seems odd to us, but we likely look odd to them!

Jim

No doubt Jim. And I didn't mean any disrespect or anything. Sorry if it came acorss that way David/Chris . It's just odd, based on my experience, to see a boat without some sort of dinghy.

[Jim Cate]

It's just odd, based on my experience, to see a boat without some sort of dinghy.

Too right, Mike! Sheesh, when I was "cruising" in my Catalina 22 I had a dinghy, and I could run that boat up nearly on the beach!

Takes all sorts...

Jim

[RaymondR]

I once saw a bloke on a Wharam with a rather interesting arrangement. He had a long alloy painters plank arranged so that he could lower it from an astern, stowed position and walk up it out of the water and climb through a hatch onto the deck or he could slide it out forward and use it as a boarding plank from the beach. Ingenious beggar, and no dingy.

[Uncle Bob]

Originally Posted by chrisr

some folk in the anchorage near us have had to buy a dinghy 'cause their marina has stopped the tender service...

cheers,

Oh god nooo, I guess they have had to refresh their rowing skills as well.

[Hoodsail]

Does visiting my boat at the yard count as “sailing”? Yelled across the yard at the yard owner as we discussed life in CT while I walked around her hull for the umpteenth time, inspecting where I need to spend time cleaning/waxing. Single hand about 90% of the time so my social distancing skills are well honed... and as DanCan noted, I go sailing to distance myself... Well, back to stripping the varnish off companion way boards that are waiting for me in the garage..stay safe and distant..

[chrisr]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

No doubt Jim. And I didn't mean any disrespect or anything. Sorry if it came acorss that way David/Chris . It's just odd, based on my experience, to see a boat without some sort of dinghy.

they are nice folk, but jim's got it right. they don't do much with their boat and what they do with it doesn't require a dink

on the other hand i'm sure they'll appreciate it once inter-boat visits can resume

oh, and they won't get much exercise as they got an electric o/board to go with it.

btw the boat is an original halverson powerboat...abt 30' and built around 1965 or so. rather small but definitely ozzes class on pittwater where these boats have been an icon for 50 years or more.

cheers,

[Skipper Kenny]

Originally Posted by thinwater

We can't compare our "need" to socialize with industry workers "need" to work.

Very true, comrade. Those that work in the aerospace denfence industries are crucial to the upcoming wars that sprout from collapsed economies, like we're going to be having on the west coast.

Anyway, having people in rest homes dying is tragic, but no reason why healthy people cannot continue their normal lives.

The normal seasonal flu killed 80,000 in 2017-2018; why no quarantine then?

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/health/flu-deaths-2017--2018-cdc-bn/index.html

[swordds]

I am a singlehanded socially remote person and my boat is named Solitude (for a reason).

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Skipper Kenny

...The normal seasonal flu killed 80,000 in 2017-2018; why no quarantine then?

The reason for the different response is that Covid-19's mortality rate is 10x to 100x higher.

In the USA the CDC's mortality estimate for 2017/18 is 61,000. They estimate there were 45 million infected people in that year. If infection rates achieve the same level as influenza, people will be stepping over bodies on the street.

I'm not a fan of irrational, fear-driven, responses to this crisis. But no one should downplay it either. This is very serious.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The reason for the different response is that Covid-19's mortality rate is 10x to 100x higher.

In the USA the CDC's mortality estimate for 2017/18 is 61,000. They estimate there were 45 million infected people in that year. If infection rates achieve the same level as influenza, people will be stepping over bodies on the street.

I'm not a fan of irrational, fear-driven, responses to this crisis. But no one should downplay it either. This is very serious.

I agree with your last statement and alas, there is way to much hype about this and not enough reasoned discourse.

I also agree that there are important differences between this and the flu, and the primary one appears to be that Covid19 in likely more contagious.

I am not sure about the mortality rate though. Per the CDC as or noon today, there are over 5,400 deaths with just over 239,000 known infections. The key word here is known infections. Using the known infections figure we're looking at around 2.2% but the "experts" say that for every one known case of Covid19 there are 10 or more undiagnosed cases, which would yield a figure of well under 1%,

In my home of NYC, we've had over 1,500 deaths since the beginning of the year. Contrast this with 300 deaths from the flu IN THE FIRST WEEK alone.

The two big differences seem to be that Covid19 is hitting harder because it is both more contagious and the cases are compressed in a smaller time frame, thus putting more stress on medical facilities.

There are a number of virologists and epidemic specialists who say that the lock downs are doing harm. They feel that this will only end when 80% of the population is exposed to it. Until then, they feel that isolation will only drag this out.

This is, as you point out, serious and I wish people would take it more seriously. I think that people are over reacting on the isolation thing and under reacting on the personal care part. I see a lot of people who get all goofy when they see someone walk near them then they turn around and don't wash their hands, touch everything in sight, and do all sorts of things that defeat the so-called social distancing.

Only time will tell if what we as a society are doing made a difference, made things worse, or if nothing would have made a difference.

[Don C L]

Just the hospitalization rates, the need for ventilators and the refrigerated trailers used as morgues should let us know we are not dealing with a mild disease. We DO need to drag this out; hospitals cannot handle the sharp peak that will result from folks NOT isolating. And for some, who are especially at risk, it may be best to stay in isolation until there is a vaccine or effective anti-viral.

[Mike OReilly]

Dave, I'm not one to argue for increased authoritarian responses to this crisis, but I think it's important not to downplay it either. At this point we simply don't know the exact morbidity and mortality rates for this new virus. But our preliminary data (which is as good as it gets right now) shows a mortality rate ranging from 0.8% to 11%. By comparison, the mortality rate for influenza is typically around 0.1%.

I don't think we know if this is more contagious than influenza. If it truly is, as it may well be, then we really will see lot more bodies. Anyone can do the math, but even if the mortality rate is near the bottom of the scale, it's still a huge number of bodies.

I agree with you that we all need to get exposed to this virus. That's how we'll start creating some herd immunity. It's going to happen one way or another. But the point of all the public health orders is to flatten the curve so that we don't all get exposed in a short time. This is what will lead to a massive spike in deaths as our ICU system gets overwhelmed. It also gives us more time to create a viable vaccine.

But... we really need to think carefully about the kinds of responses we impose. I fear that some of these "temporary" actions and measures imposed, will slide into permanent measures. We've seen this happen around recent past crisis (think 9/11, or even the Great Recession), and given the authoritarian trends already present in many of our societies, I am concerned about what we will look like when this passes.

[BugzyCan]

The whole point of social isolation is that every time you go outside your house, your two weeks starts again. You cannot stop a droplet of this disease entering your nose, even at 6 feet from others, or stop yourself touching something, and then rubbing your eye or picking your nose.
Just because none of your friends has shown any symptoms, doesn't mean it is OK for you all to meet and go sailing, it only takes one of them to have picked it up on the way to the boat and everyone gets it.

[ArmyDaveNY]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

But... we really need to think carefully about the kinds of responses we impose. I fear that some of these "temporary" actions and measures imposed, will slide into permanent measures. We've seen this happen around recent past crisis (think 9/11, or even the Great Recession), and given the authoritarian trends already present in many of our societies, I am concerned about what we will look like when this passes.

Spot on!!! This scares me more than anything. The sheeple are meekly submitting as they did post 911. What will remain and what is next? Having been in the Army for a long time, I have seen mission creep, and that scares me a lot.

Only slightly behind this is the economic damage. I am talking more than just the closed businesses. In the U.S. most have heard of the stimulus plan. It was originally 1 Trillion and now it has ballooned to 2.2 TRILLION. Worse is that most aren't aware of the 2 or 2.5 TRILLION stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Now we're talking well over 4 TRILLION. That will come back to haunt us.

The good news is that the majority who are exposed have zero symptoms and the overwhelming majority of those who get it have either no symptoms or mild symptoms.

One thing for sure is that it will make for a number of interesting studies in the future. Doctors, epidemiologists, health care policy researchers, economists, and many others will have years of research. Many a student and researcher will get their PhDs and grant money off this!

[DanCan]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Dave, I'm not one to argue for increased authoritarian responses to this crisis, but I think it's important not to downplay it either. At this point we simply don't know the exact morbidity and mortality rates for this new virus. But our preliminary data (which is as good as it gets right now) shows a mortality rate ranging from 0.8% to 11%. By comparison, the mortality rate for influenza is typically around 0.1%.

I don't think we know if this is more contagious than influenza. If it truly is, as it may well be, then we really will see lot more bodies. Anyone can do the math, but even if the mortality rate is near the bottom of the scale, it's still a huge number of bodies.

I agree with you that we all need to get exposed to this virus. That's how we'll start creating some herd immunity. It's going to happen one way or another. But the point of all the public health orders is to flatten the curve so that we don't all get exposed in a short time. This is what will lead to a massive spike in deaths as our ICU system gets overwhelmed. It also gives us more time to create a viable vaccine.

But... we really need to think carefully about the kinds of responses we impose. I fear that some of these "temporary" actions and measures imposed, will slide into permanent measures. We've seen this happen around recent past crisis (think 9/11, or even the Great Recession), and given the authoritarian trends already present in many of our societies, I am concerned about what we will look like when this passes.

The difference with the common flu is acquired immunity. The flu killed thousands (remember the aboriginals dying after the Europeans showed up?) but today the mortality rate is low thanks to the flu being several hundred of years around.
This one is new and we quarantine to not overflow emergency services. We haven’t developed immunity yet.
Some here still saying “paranoia” or “more get killed by lightning” or similar stupid phrases are being irresponsible. Hey, if it is that mild go and expose yourself and your family, it is just a flu, riiiiight?? These so “macho” keyboard warriors are laughable.
Another question and topic is the economy and I’m sure we are not going to survive with the economy shut down as it is right now, it will have to change somehow.