97L

[AA3JY]

Spaghetti models for 97L

[GordMay]

Formation chance through 48 hours now [1:00PM EST] 90%.
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3946641

Southwestern Caribbean Sea Invest Area (AL97):
A broad 1006 mb low is persisting at the southwestern Caribbean
Sea north of northwestern Colombia. Scattered heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring just north of Panama and
northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas at 5
to 8 ft are evident north of Panama and northwestern Colombia to
near 14N. This system is expected to gradually develop while
moving northward to northwestward over the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form. It could also bring
heavy rain to Jamaica, Hispaniola, Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
There is a high chance of tropical development for this system and
residents in the Western Caribbean need to monitor it closely.

[AA3JY]

New model 18L..

[GordMay]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN [was AL97]
As of 7:00AM EST, PTC-18 is forecast to become a tropical storm today, and pass near Jamaica tonight, and Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane ["Rafael"], by Tuesday night, as the system approaches western Cuba.

The NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of the Caribbean Sea [14.2N x 76.9W].
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.

➥

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm "Rafael" [05/0300Z UTC]:
Newly upgraded Tropical Storm ‘Rafael’ is centered near 17°N x 78°W, or 105 NM South of Kingston Jamaica, moving N-NW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb [29.33"].
Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt, with gusts to 50 kt.

‘Rafael’ is expected to turn northwestward, with a little more acceleration anticipated, over the next few days.
On the forecast track, the storm is expected to be near Jamaica on Tuesday morning, be near [or over] the Cayman Islands Tuesday night, and approach Cuba on Wednesday.
Steady to rapid intensification is forecast, over the next 24 to 36 hours, and ‘Rafael’
is forecast to become a hurricane, in the northwestern Caribbean, near the Cayman Islands, with further strengthening, before it makes landfall, in Cuba.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, from Key West, to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

Key Messages for T/S “RAFAEL” ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...sages#contents

[GordMay]

Hurricane Rafael:
As of 06/0900 UTC - 4:00AM EST:
Hurricane “Rafael” is centered near 20.6°N x 81.3°W, or 100 nm SE of the isle of Youth, moving NW [315°] at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt, with gusts to 100 kt.
Seas are peaking around 25 ft.

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11 [400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024]
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/060851.shtml

[grahamj]

Someone needs to tip off the Cubans. CYO airport is forecasting max winds of 35 gusting 45kts.

[GordMay]

Hurricane “Rafael” pushed into the Gulf of Mexico, on Wednesday night, after plowing across western Cuba, as a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph [90 kt], and was moving northwest at 13 mph.
“Rafael” knocked out the entire country's power grid [again].

Heavy rainfall also was expected to spread north, into Florida and nearby areas of the southeast U.S., during the middle to late part of the week. The Hurricane Center predicted storm surges, in Florida, could reach up to 3 feet, in Dry Tortugas, and between 1 and 2 feet, in the Lower Florida Keys.

As of 0600 UTC [1:00 AM EST] Thursday, Nov, 7,
Hurricane Rafael is centered near 24.2°N x 84.6°W, or 130 nm WNW of Havana Cuba,
moving NW [305°], at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt [105 mph], with gusts to 110 kt.
Seas are peaking around 27 ft, near the center.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 22°N to 26°N, between 81°W, and 85°W.
Rafael should turn westward, with some decrease in forward speed, during the next 2-3 days.
Swells, generated by Rafael are expected to spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico, from east to west, late this week, into the weekend.

[GordMay]

From the “Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project" [TCGP]
➥ RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Home

Real-time Guidance for HURRICANE RAFAEL ➥ RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Real-Time Guidance | HURRICANE RAFAEL (AL18)

Overview of Current Active Storms ➥ RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Real-Time Guidance

[GordMay]

A spaghetti model showed that Rafael has six potential paths to the US, but none of these are as likely, as the storm continues tracking west, toward Mexico.

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm “Rafael” [0600 UTC - 1:00AM EST - Sat Nov 9]
“Rafael” weakens to a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts to 75 kt. not
‘Rafael’ was centred near 24.8°N x 89.9°W at 09/0300 UTC, and drifting
WNW [285°] at 4 - 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb.
Peak seas near the centre range from 29 to 31 ft. Seas farther away from the centre range from 15 to 28 ft.
A slow WNW movement will continue through Saturday, before a turn toward the SSW into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, early next week.

Given the unfavourable atmospheric conditions [vertical wind shear & low R/H] the latest NHC intensity forecast continues to show steady weakening, and follows the latest global model fields showing ‘Rafael’ becoming a depression, within 48 hours, and degenerating to a remnant low pressure area soon after that. This could occur sooner than is currently forecast.

[GordMay]

Hurricane “Kate” is still [expected to be] the strongest, latest hurricane to strike contiguous U.S. coastline

It’s rare for a hurricane to form, and make landfall in November, in the United States. The shift into cooler seasons is when sea temperatures cool down, and wind shear increases, making it a less favourable for development.

The most recent November hurricane, in the Gulf of Mexico, was Hurricane “Kate” [November 16 - 23, 1985], thirty-nine years ago.

On November 21, 1985, Hurricane “Kate” struck the Florida panhandle, near Mexico Beach, as a category 2 storm, breaking tropical records in the process.
‘Kate’ was the 11TH named storm, 7TH hurricane, and 3RD major hurricane of the 1985 Atlantic hurricane season.
The system started out as a tropical wave, near the Virgin Islands, on November 13TH but was named 2 days later.
By the 20TH the hurricane had crossed Cuba, the center of ‘Kate’ coming within 90 miles of Key West, as it traveled around an area of high pressure, that drove it more northwest.

More ➥ https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropic.../kate1985.html

And ➥ https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/kate1985.pdf