Schooner Nina - MERGED 3 THREADS

[charliehows]

er, yes...east coast lows are nasty little bastards, heavy seas, vicious winds and in this instance pretty much right in the boats path and pushing the wrong way - they may have made their way a bit further north than intended

[David_Old_Jersey]

Cheers. Unpleasant weather bad enuf, but in the wrong direction (for progress) doubly so! (and dispiriting!).

[Friend of Nina]

Thanks Rick, I just emailed RCC and has done already 650,000 sq miles. I asked them about Australian AnR and said that police and customs notified so far. Hope is our lifeline. Cherie

[Blue Stocking]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

That was Niña. Must be another boat.

b.

I was more concerned about the boat than the computer game

[rfnk]

No problem, wish we could do more. 650,000 sounds like a lot but it's really only about a third of the area they're most likely to be in, and when you consider the areas they could be in, it's a small proportion indeed. While it's impossible not to be concerned, it's still most unlikely that they're in real danger. Highly likely that they've had some gear failure and travelling very slowly as a result. Great that the NZ rescue people are onto it as if they do need to be assisted, that'll happen without delay - whether from NZ or Oz.
Rick

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by David_Old_Jersey

am not familiar with the area (or hemisphere!), but would the weather, esp. the direction (now and previously), have made progress slow(er) than could otherwise have been?

David,

You know my constant rule: Always sail in the right season... Crossing the Tasman in June is like crossing Biscay in November.

[Friend of Nina]

Thanks even the most ardent believers deal with unbelief at times! Cherie

[Friend of Nina]

If the engine hasn't broken down they would have been away months prior. Cherie

[Friend of Nina]

Update. 2nd airplane came back with no sightings. They covered 650,000 miles. Going to reaccess. Though questioned their time of dep as of June 4th whereas a mate saw them hove to at Opua then becalmed that day. So if that case 2-3 days for storm, 1-2 days becalmed so then if 14 days in good weather their eta would be June 25th. If took on some storm damage then may even add a week. I'm assuming they are nearer to Australia. Would this be realistic?? Cherie

[slipstreamcat]

Hi Cherie
We are dealing with nature & a sailing boat in a big pond,she is a solid girl by all accounts.What my mate Ted & SARS worked out is about now for her ,just hang in there people are very worried I know, we just have to be postive in our thoughts.SARS will do everything they can ,Tony.

[Tim R]

I'd consider that a likely scenario. Here are a few key facts:

1) They have an EPIRB and have not activated it yet.
Based on this fact alone they are likely still making progress to Newcastle just slower than they thought.

2) Their position on June 2nd was 33°35' S 168°31' E. This is about 300nm from Opua over 3 days for an average speed of 100nm/day. If they'd continued at this pace they would have arrived in Newcastle around June 11th.

3) Their position on June 13th was 33 53 S 165 18 E. So they only made another 160nm of progress over 11 days for an average speed of less than 15nm/day. If they continued at this pace they should arrive in Newcastle by the end of July.

3) A boat like Nina is capable of faster paces like 200nm/day under the right conditions.

Those are the facts as I understand them (someone double check me). So now here's a bit of conjecture:

Probably their slow speed from June 2nd to 13th was due to heaving to waiting out bad weather or they were becalmed and chose not to motor or had engine problems, could be any number of things. I would expect that if the engine and sails/rigging were disabled enough that they couldn't make progress to Newcastle that they would have activated their EPIRB. Since they haven't done so, they are most likely still underway and could well be getting close.

Does anyone have more information on the June 13th position report? The first I heard of it was the earlier post here. What was the source? Were they having any mechanical troubles at that time?

[Friend of Nina]

Hey slipstreamcat! Did you actually see Nina on the 4th. If so where please and any other information. As your sighting could change things! Cherie

[Friend of Nina]

Do u mind if I forward ur post to the RCC? Appears batteries quit. Cherie

[Tim R]

Mine? No problem, forward away.

[slipstreamcat]

Hi everthing that I know has been posted ,I would go on anything put out by SARS they have it covered & the best info, they have the very best chaps to deal with these searches & are up there in the plane & back here in NZ on the ground.Cheers.