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venturing seagull · 25-07-2013, 18:33

Currents are less important than wind direction and wave direction even on a boat that is bare poled. I can assure you that NINA would easily make 2 knots downwind unless hove-to ..... and then it would make a knot or so. If it starts surfing, even more.

Captain Bill · 25-07-2013, 19:27

I find the discussion about the boat heading to Oz under bare poles, hove to, or under a jury rig interesting, but unlikely. Though the lows crossing the Tasman have a circular rotation and would allow periods of westerly movement down wind, but the prevailing winds at these lattitudes are west to east, so going west is a challenge even with an intact rig. Bare poles and jury rigs are basically impossible to take to windward. Combine this with the current and the net movement will be to the east. If they are not on some deserted coast in New Zealand by now, I would think the best place to search would be East of NZ. I would find it hard to believe that any experienced skipper would try to go to a net windward with anything but an intact rig. Maybe I'm unusually conservative, but if it was me I would have attempted to return to the closest downwind port to effect repairs if my rig was not intact. NZ was closer, downwind, and down current. The fact that it was upwind when they were last heard from was only a temporary condition at best. If they are in a raft or completely adrift their net movement would be east and they should have hit or passed NZ by now. If their rig is intact they should have been in Oz by now. Good luck with your search and I hope they are found soon.

venturing seagull · 25-07-2013, 19:43

I don't think anyone is saying that they would be under bare poles for ever. We only know that the storm sails were shredded. This leaves a number of other sails available for sailing if the conditions were right.

As for the prevailing winds ..... at the time of the last message, the actual winds were from the SE ..... enabling Nina to move to the N-NW .... and away from the search areas indicated in the pictures.

opusnz · 25-07-2013, 19:55

The prevailing winds in June in the Tasman can be anywhere from SW to SE. The further north you go, the more likely they will be SE but really you need to be ready for anything.

http://www.offshoreblue.com/assets/r...06sppc1998.zip

If I remember right, the winds after the storm were almost nothing for days as a high came in...later, where they should have been located the winds eventually switched to the SE.

Captain Bill · 25-07-2013, 20:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by venturing seagull

I don't think anyone is saying that they would be under bare poles for ever. We only know that the storm sails were shredded. This leaves a number of other sails available for sailing if the conditions were right.

As for the prevailing winds ..... at the time of the last message, the actual winds were from the SE ..... enabling Nina to move to the N-NW .... and away from the search areas indicated in the pictures.

The winds are any particular time are irrelavent to the net movement. The wind would change direction as soon as the center of the low moved off. The net movement over a long period only depends on prevailing wind and current. If they had an intact usable rig of any sort they would have been in OZ by now, even if they only averaged one knot of VMG. It seems to me that it taking so long to get there indicates that the rig is not likely to be intact. If it's not they would only be able to make a net movement downwind and down current. Clearly the captain was not a newby and would have understood that the Tasman in winter was no place to try to cross without adequate storm sails. NZ was much closer and it seems to me that he would have attempted to return there and deal with replacing his storm sails and repairing any other damage he might have suffered in the storm. My point is that if he's not in either place it's likely that they either have a limited ability to control the boat or they are in the raft. In either case they are going to be east of their last position. East is either NZ or SA. My understanding of NZ's west coast is that there are large uninhabited areas where they may have come ashore. I know that the coast was searched early on, but that doesn't mean they were not missed. If the boat came ashore intact soon after they disappeared there might have been any recognizable wreakage left after a couple of weeks in the surf. If they missed NZ then they are on a very long drift towards South America. The issue is they are going to run into the humboldt current which will drift them north and possibly into tradewinds again where they would be pushed back west, but drifting, it's a long way to the humboldt.

If it was my family and I had limited resources I would concentrate my effeort to the east.

Friend of Nina · 26-07-2013, 08:44

State Dept Update. NGA still analyzing data and hope to hear within a week. Conference call now has a USCG Capt experienced in search and rescue to go over all data from RCCNZ to see if any possibility of something being missed.

Corker's office said so many agencies and people involved and list grows daily.

If I'm not correct, Schooner Nina will have the largest amount of lives 'lost at sea' on a non commercial vessel.

Cherie

venturing seagull · 26-07-2013, 14:38

The yacht Scottish Bonnet made it across to New South Wales alone in 164 days .... a different time of year, but it it shows it is possible.
Sail-World.com : Plucky little yacht Scotch Bonnet - made it alone

opusnz · 26-07-2013, 15:24

Windigo as well....she was abandoned between NZ and Tonga. It was only 3 months to Coff's Harbour.

The yacht stripped bare - ABC Coffs Coast - Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Captain Bill · 26-07-2013, 16:51

These two examples took place in the summer and further north. Unlike the crew of the Nina I have no skin in this game. I recommend that the families contact one of the NZ universities Marine Science departments and ask one of the oceanographers where they would estimate a drifting object would be located given where the Nina was last reported. Hopefully they'll have better current and wind data than is found on pilot charts.

Mr B · 26-07-2013, 19:29

Where the Indigo was abandoned, In the middle of the Coral sea,

The indigo could have gone east or west, as it was on the convergence of the two currents,
It went west ending up at Coffs harbour, it could have ended up near Bundaberg as well. as the western current splits and runs north and south along the coast,

If the Indigo had picked up the east current, It would have gone to South America,