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**Wotname** · 23-07-2013, 17:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

........ Then the winds turned more NE/E. If the winds affected their position more than the current then they could have been blown north and then east out towards the South Pacific. .........

Cherie

This doesn't seem right, is there a typo here or have I taken something out of context?

Friend of Nina · 23-07-2013, 17:51

It may have been a typo. But several think would head ENE.
Just the passer of information that find this interesting.

Cherie

**Jim Cate** · 23-07-2013, 17:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

It may have been a typo. But several think would head ENE.
Just the passer of information that find this interesting.

Cherie

I think that the point that Geoff (Wotname) is making is that NE/E winds would blow the boat to the SW/W, not in the direction quoted.

Cheers,

Jim

**Wotname** · 23-07-2013, 18:03

Or that the winds were SW/W - either one or the other but no disabled boat is going to drift NE/E with a NE/E wind.

opusnz · 23-07-2013, 18:57

Evi on Nina said they were going 310 deg at 3.5 knots to 4 knots on Jun 4. This is consistent with being hove to or later running downwind with the shredded sails in a vigorous southerly or southeast wind. Winds go clockwise around the low. The said they were at 165E and the low should have been east of them at 168E by that time. It all fits and is consistent with Evi's/Nina's reported weather.

The low was relatively small but very intense and fast moving. A few days after the storm, the maps show that the winds were very light for many days as a high built over the Tasman. Eventually the winds filled in to a SE trade which should have pushed them west or northwest. Despite what some have said, I can't see how there is any way Nina could have been pushed east of NZ.

**Jim Cate** · 23-07-2013, 19:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by opusnz

Evi on Nina said they were going 310 deg at 3.5 knots to 4 knots on Jun 4. This is consistent with being hove to or later running downwind with the shredded sails in a vigorous southerly or southeast wind. Winds go clockwise around the low. The said they were at 165E and the low should have been east of them at 168E by that time. It all fits and is consistent with Evi's/Nina's reported weather.

The low was relatively small but very intense and fast moving. A few days after the storm, the maps show that the winds were very light for many days as a high built over the Tasman. Eventually the winds filled in to a SE trade which should have pushed them west or northwest. Despite what some have said, I can't see how there is any way Nina could have been pushed east of NZ.

Agreed. The only way to have been consistently pushed eastward would be to have gotten far enough south to get into the westerlies, and then they would have fetched up on the west coast of NZed.

Still hoping...

Jim

opusnz · 23-07-2013, 20:01

Yes, and the only way she would have gotten that far south to pick up any west or south west winds would have been if there were a lot of northerly winds for many days first....it never happened.

tboodro · 23-07-2013, 20:18

Sorry Guys, that was confusing, and my fault.
I initially wrote that referring to the direction that the winds would have blown the boat. So you are correct, we would be talking about SW/W winds.

And just to clarify, judging by the playback from Jun 3 to Jun 6, after the eye of the low passed over their assumed location the winds would have been S or slightly SE. (Pushing them in a North/North West direction)
If they made it as far north as Norfolk Island over the next 3 days then the winds there had shifted W/SW in that area by then. If it took them longer to get that far north, two fronts were colliding in that area, with winds that could have taken them in almost any direction. Of course the current would have been a factor also.
Anyone know which direction it flows around Norfolk Island and the north tip of New Zealand?

Keep in mind that all of this assumes that they had no sails and no engine. And is in no way an expert opinion. It's simply an unbiased observation. I encourage others to also take a look at the weather playback and see if you notice anything that may help. I believe this should link you to the playback of the weather in that area between Jun 3 to Jun 9:
WunderMap® | Interactive Weather Map and Radar | Weather Underground

**Wotname** · 23-07-2013, 20:40

Thanks for clearing this up

tboodro · 23-07-2013, 20:54

Very welcome.

It looks like there are regular commercial flights over that area by airlines like Air Vanuatu and Air Pacific Limited. Too bad there wasn't some way to tap into all of those eyes passing over that area everyday.

Friend of Nina · 24-07-2013, 03:58

Todd Boudreaux Sibel I saw that there was some confusion on the forum where you posted what I said. I tried to post a follow-up, but have not been approved yet. If you'd like, you can post the following from me: Sorry Guys, that was confusing, and my fault. I initially wrote that referring to the direction that the winds would have blown the boat. So you are correct, we would be talking about SW/W winds. And just to clarify, judging by the playback from Jun 3 to Jun 6, after the eye of the low passed over their assumed location the winds would have been S or slightly SE. (Pushing them in a North/North West direction) If they made it as far north as Norfolk Island over the next 3 days then the winds there had shifted W/SW in that area by then. If it took them longer to get that far north, two fronts were colliding in that area, with winds that could have taken them in almost any direction. Of course the current would have been a factor also. Anyone know which direction it flows around Norfolk Island and the north tip of New Zealand? Keep in mind that all of this assumes that they had no sails and no engine. And is in no way an expert opinion. It's simply an unbiased observation. I'd encourage others to also take a look at the weather playback and see if you notice anything that may help. I believe this should link you to the playback of the weather in that area between Jun 3 to Jun 9: http://wxug.us/16m52

Friend of Nina · 24-07-2013, 05:25

David Keller Hello, I'm good friends with Kyle & his family. I've been in contact with www.tomnod.com to try to get a large crowdsource viewing going. I know this is a broad question, but where do you think the most important place to be looking right now would be. They would be getting a sat image from now to the future, not the past. Any thoughts? Thank you. -David

tboodro · 24-07-2013, 13:16

I think that the text is very important. If they made it though the Jun 3rd storm and apparently weren't injured or worried, that is promising. If they had no sails, engine or navigation they may have chosen a heading of 310 knowing that they would hit something. Australia. Maybe Norfolk Island if the wind shifted.

From there, judging by the weather over the next 3 weeks, they should have been blown up to Norfolk Island. Depending on what days they reached that area (around Jun 20), winds could have blown them North/North East of the island. Or they could have also blown them East/South East across the north east part of New Zealand.

RCCNZ has taken some flack for its decisions. But I think that their first search in the waters N/NE of New Zealand was at the right time and in the right area to have found them had they drifted south and east of Norfolk Island.

Does the fact that they didn't find anything there mean they could be further north towards Fiji?

You would think that something would have come up in the searches right? Either washed up on the beach or just floating around. Unless they're still in tact and a drift outside of the search areas.