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Pelorus32 · 03-07-2013, 17:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Friend of Nina

Thank you for your thorough thoughts. Yes. It's hard to believe an 84 yr old boat doesn't know all the ropes but appears when you take away luck and trump cards... Even she has to say "uncle " !
Feeling a bit low right now but I can never thank you guys for your insight, prayers and sailor caring!! Cherie

The only update I would make to my post is in point 3) where I say "at some point within 2 hours...". My recollection was a bit off and as others have pointed out it may well have been longer than that since they began running off.

In a storm at sea, hove to, I always find that there comes a moment when you think "beam me up Scottie" but of course there is no Scottie and no Starship Enterprise!

Boatguy30 · 03-07-2013, 17:14

Someone should pull out Smeetons books and see how long it took them to reach Chile form the horn either time... My copy is in Michigan, but I will be there next week.

I agree that an EPIRB should not be used for non-emergency and if you were way down in the Southern Ocean between capes I certainly wouldn't pop it just to say hello. In this situation, where I was what 1 month? overdue from a 7-9 day passage?? AND there are dozens of flights overhead daily as well as a bunch of shipping? Seems it would be prudent to check in with the world.

So I guess I disagree somewhat with myself. Just hate to see all the dinosaur juice and man hours being burned for these searches when ultimately they are either OK or they aren't.

cloudsail · 03-07-2013, 18:50

In the northern hemisphere wind clocks clockwise around a high, here it clocks clockwise around a low. I'm looking at this MODIS satellite photo of that day and wondering... Since have the time (23:50:25 UTC) and wind direction (310, you can't get far off downwind under bare poles! ) Won't this help determine where on the clock they were? If they were right of the low's center, they wouldn't be sailing 310 degrees. Isn't that good news? Does it mean the low's center was already east of them by 23:50:25 UTC on June 3rd?

mistermizu · 03-07-2013, 18:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boatguy30

Someone should pull out Smeetons books and see how long it took them to reach Chile from the horn either time...

After Tzu Hang's second dismasting about 450nm west of Chile they sailed over 1000nm under jury rig for exactly a month before making landfall in Valparaiso.

KB mom · 03-07-2013, 20:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boatguy30

Someone should pull out Smeetons books and see how long it took them to reach Chile form the horn either time... My copy is in Michigan, but I will be there next week.

I agree that an EPIRB should not be used for non-emergency and if you were way down in the Southern Ocean between capes I certainly wouldn't pop it just to say hello. In this situation, where I was what 1 month? overdue from a 7-9 day passage?? AND there are dozens of flights overhead daily as well as a bunch of shipping? Seems it would be prudent to check in with the world.

So I guess I disagree somewhat with myself. Just hate to see all the dinosaur juice and man hours being burned for these searches when ultimately they are either OK or they aren't.

Well as a mother I am happy they are searching!!!!

**boatman61** · 03-07-2013, 21:09

As a Mother... be happy the EPIRB has not gone off...
Speaking as someone whose folk who cared worried about nothing...

Not trying to belittle your concerns... just trying to reassure you that the impossible is normal..

ternmarine · 04-07-2013, 00:28

Latest from search and rescue:

4 July 2013: 6.00pm
The Rescue Coordination Centre New Zealand (RCCNZ) is continuing to assess all available information in the search for the crew of the American schooner Nina, which is missing en route from New Zealand to Australia. Today's radar search of more than 97,000 square nautical miles has been completed without any sighting of the vessel.
The 21m (70ft) Nina, sailing from Opua in the Bay of Islands to Newcastle with seven people on board, has not been heard from since 4 June.
On 15 June, RCCNZ obtained from Iridium, a satellite communications company, details of the approximate position and actual time (1150 NZST 04 June 2013) of the last transmission from the Nina’s satellite phone.
Nigel Clifford, Maritime New Zealand’s General Manager Safety and Response Services, said the position information was then factored into search area calculations, along with other available information.
“As concern for the vessel increased, RCCNZ made further enquiries with Iridium about all transmissions made from the Nina’s satellite phone during the period of interest,” said Mr Clifford.
On 29 June it became known that the last transmission (a text message), on 4 June, had not been delivered to its intended recipient by the Iridium system. RCCNZ, working with the United States State Department, sought the release of the undelivered text message contents, which RCCNZ received on 3 July.
A copy of the text message follows:
from_unixtime(received_time): 2013-06-03 23:50:25
status: UNDELIVERABLE
src_addr: [phone number]
dest_addr: *2
cshort_message: THANKS STORM SAILS SHREDDED LAST NIGHT, NOW BARE POLES. GOINING 4KT 310DEG WILL UPDATE COURSE INFO @ 6PM
Mr Clifford said the contents of the text message were considered, along with all other information, as part of the planning for today’s search. “The text message gives a clearer indication of the condition of the vessel on 4 June, and the weather that was being experienced at the time,” he said.
“The text message clearly indicates that the Nina was affected by the storm, but gives no indication of immediate distress.
“While it shows that Nina had survived the storm up to that point, very poor weather continued in the area for many hours and has been followed by other storms. The text message, in isolation, does not indicate what might have happened subsequently.
“However, the text message states that Nina’s course information would be updated in just over six hours’ time, at 6pm.
“There have been no further transmissions or messages from the Nina since the undelivered text message on 4 June. There were also no distress messages from either of the two distress alerting devices on board (EPIRB and Spot satellite personal tracker),” Mr Clifford said.
RCCNZ has discussed the details of the text message and other search information gathered to date with representatives of the family and friends of the crew.
Search and rescue officers at RCCNZ will evaluate all the information and decisions about the search operation will be considered overnight and tomorrow.
New Zealand’s Maritime Radio is continuing to conduct broadcasts in New Zealand’s search and rescue region, and Rescue Coordination Centre Australia (RCC Australia) is assisting with broadcasts on coastal radio.

Nauticatarcher · 04-07-2013, 00:48

Just for readers info here is MSL analysis for 4/6/13

DavefromNZ · 04-07-2013, 02:05

https://www.dropbox.com/s/xfstz2sm9b...grb?n=21367881

I have attached a link to a grib file that starts at 1200 (NZST) on 4th June (I hope the link works) and covers the top of NZ close to the area Nina was. I was planning a 200nm trip up the coast from Auckland to Mangonui Harbour but the weather was ugly so we delayed a day. We then had 30-40kt southerly winds on the evening of 5th June. Waves picked up a bit and we were just coastal and we surfed in our cat at up to 20kts. The wind was light on the 6th and 7th. The wave remained on the 6th.

My thoughts and best wishes are for a safe recovery of all the crew of the Nina. Dave

bazzer · 04-07-2013, 03:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by DavefromNZ

https://www.dropbox.com/s/xfstz2sm9b...grb?n=21367881

I have attached a link to a grib file that starts at 1200 (NZST) on 4th June (I hope the link works) and covers the top of NZ close to the area Nina was. I was planning a 200nm trip up the coast from Auckland to Mangonui Harbour but the weather was ugly so we delayed a day. We then had 30-40kt southerly winds on the evening of 5th June. Waves picked up a bit and we were just coastal and we surfed in our cat at up to 20kts. The wind was light on the 6th and 7th. The wave remained on the 6th.

My thoughts and best wishes are for a safe recovery of all the crew of the Nina. Dave

It difficult to understand how Nina could be blown along at 310 degrees anywhere north of NZ on the 4th. The wind was out the sw most of the time as far,as I can see from the grib. Am I ready the weather incorrectly ?

**GordMay** · 04-07-2013, 03:57

Greetings and welcome aboard the CF, KB mom.

As are we all (glad they’re searching).

**atoll** · 04-07-2013, 04:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by bazzer

It difficult to understand how Nina could be blown along at 310 degrees anywhere north of NZ on the 4th. The wind was out the sw most of the time as far,as I can see from the grib. Am I ready the weather incorrectly ?

it would depend on where they were relative to the center of the low,being north of it they could easily hold that course.

Pelorus32 · 04-07-2013, 04:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by atoll

it would depend on where they were relative to the center of the low,being north of it they could easily hold that course.

Southern hemisphere...the winds in the SW quadrant of a low would lend themselves to that course. Bob McD's suggestion that the only thing to do was to head south would suggest that they were south of the centre of the low and it was presumably travelling eastwards meaning that they would be ever close to at least the westerly and to some extent the SW quadrant.

**atoll** · 04-07-2013, 04:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelorus32

Southern hemisphere...the winds in the SW quadrant of a low would lend themselves to that course. Bob McD's suggestion that the only thing to do was to head south would suggest that they were south of the centre of the low and it was presumably travelling eastwards meaning that they would be ever close to at least the westerly and to some extent the SW quadrant.

quite correct!
will hold the wx map upside down in future