PredictWind? Weatherfax? What weather system do you recommend for crossing oceans?

[mvweebles]

I recently got back into cruising after a 15-year hiatus. Getting up to speed on WX was my biggest learning curve as much had changed. A few comments:

1. PW $250/yr package vs Professional. I opted for $250/yr. Biggest benefit I could see for $500 professional is it gives effect of currents. More than I was willing to pay.

2. Video of El cheapo HF radio. If you keep watching Project Atticus videos, you'll see they move to PW (they ask their "patrons" for it). They are moving to the Panama canal in anticipation of crossing pacific next year. HF broadcasts are finnecky and time sensitive. Can it be done? Yes. It's a personal decision whether it's affordable.

3. Reliability of PW forecasts. Pretty good, but let's face it, all forecasts are only so-so. I used WxFax for many years and really liked them, even came to know the NOAA forecasters who interpret the data to form the visual there was often significant variability between successive forecasts due to shift change.

4. Reliability of PW departure planning (or anyone else's such as FastSeas). C+ or B- I still think I do better with WxFax style surface charts, but the departure planning is seductive. Just doesn't seem to be accurate too far out.

5. Iridium Go. If you buy multiple Sim cards at $10/ea, you can shut down and restart economically but you will have a new phone number each time. So you don't need to pay the $150/mo when you're hanging out in ala waii

6. Using a weather router. I was a delivery skipper for several years and used one a couple times when delivering new boats without weather capabilities. I found the inability to see weather imagery for myself extremely uncomfortable. My preference (if comms were available) was a trusted cruiser friend who was damn good, and would spend all the time needed for my exact route and needs. Again, personal preference. For me, having the knowledge and data source to make my own weather decisions was instrumental. I think it the most overlooked seamanship skill in the toolbox.

[Safari38LH]

Look into Sail Docs. Works very well with the Go. Gribs, faxes,etc.

[Paul L]

You need to seperate a few items and not get it all lumped into one.
The weather data you need prior to departing is not the same as what you need while on passage.
The method you use to obtain the data is separate from the data.

Prior to departure, assuming a somewhat decent internet connection, you have access to all the data you need. Windy.com gives you both the GFS and Euro models out the next 7-10 days. Watch these closely over the month before leaving for the days out prediction vs what actually happened. Also watch the models to see how well they argee with each other 3-7 days out and which one seems more reliable for your passage area at your time of year.
Play with the passage routing software and see how the daily gribs change the computed routes. You can route with http://www.fastseas.com, OpenCPN plugins, predictwind and others (one app is enough, remember they are all just part of a video game). Use the routing feature that allows you to look at the same passage started on each of the forward 7 days. This can be very helpful in pulling the trigger on when to actually leave.
Don't become a slave to the proposed route. They do not include many of the very important passage planning criteria. For example, if the forecast is off after 5 days did you position the boat for the most reasonable recovery route or for a brutal bash or doldrums motor? The routing SW doesn't take that into account.
You can use the https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/...ASCATData.php/ site to get actual current winds daily as well as winds on particular previous dates.

Once offshore, a simple GFS grib once a day is what we use. In addition, if its available we will listen to the cruiser SSB net on the passage for current conditions experienced by boats in front of us, or above/below.
In an area that might be subject to more extreme weather, such as strong fronts or late season cyclones, we also download the areas short text based marine forecast. This is much easier to download and simpler than an actual forecast Fax.

As far as getting the data while offshore, you have two primary ways, SSB or Sat phone. Then you have to pick a provider, such as Sailmail for SSB or Sat, Winlink for SSB, predictwind or Ocens for Sat.

[waterman46]

Originally Posted by magentawave

2) Is there a reason you're using SSB and Sailmail to get weatherfaxes vs the cheapo way this guy is doing it with a little inexpensive shortwave radio and a laptop? https://youtu.be/l1QyDVgclto

Sailmail/Winlink via PACTOR allows you to simply request any number of weather products at any time it is convenient to you and when propagation is best. Also PACTOR allows you to pick any station that can hear you, and you can copy them OK as a result. The possibility of making a good readable connection is greater with PACTOR due to these features. And then of course you get the benefit of e-mail communication.

Many folks just don't want to get into marine SSB radio to say nothing of getting a Ham license, either of which takes a major amount of personal commitment. I can understand that and for them the satellite service makes more sense. And the one-way reception of weather faxes via an inexpensive SSB receiver can work fine if you want to go that route. But I would say it is more time consuming and the information you get is limited in comparison to the other methods.

I would feel a little freaked out if I had to cross an ocean without a means of long range 2-way communication. But that's just me.

[akopac]

Winlink and Saildocs. That’s it for me. Saildocs has a lot of stuff in there. Weather fax. Gribs. Satalite pics, email, news. I’ve used the ssb so much for offshore nets I don’t know what I’d do without it.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by waterman46

Sailmail/Winlink via PACTOR allows you to simply request any number of weather products at any time it is convenient to you and when propagation is best. Also PACTOR allows you to pick any station that can hear you, and you can copy them OK as a result. The possibility of making a good readable connection is greater with PACTOR due to these features. And then of course you get the benefit of e-mail communication.

Many folks just don't want to get into marine SSB radio to say nothing of getting a Ham license, either of which takes a major amount of personal commitment. I can understand that and for them the satellite service makes more sense. And the one-way reception of weather faxes via an inexpensive SSB receiver can work fine if you want to go that route. But I would say it is more time consuming and the information you get is limited in comparison to the other methods.

I would feel a little freaked out if I had to cross an ocean without a means of long range 2-way communication. But that's just me.

Just to add to your comment, you don't require a Ham license to use Sailmail over SSB radio.

[Auspicious]

Y'all get a cup of coffee or a drink. This is gonna be long. *grin*

Originally Posted by MJH

Biggest problem with Weatherfax is that the faxes you are interested in are only broadcasted once or twice a day and at "specific times"...you miss it, for whatever reason, you lose it; you must give priority to the fax time. Of course, there are 24, 48, and 72hour forecasts so you can usually get one of them. I was not always able to get a forecast for different reasons. As stated in the video, it does take some practice.

It's easier that that. In fact it is really easy. There are two cycles of weather fax per day. See rfax.pdf that I linked to up in post #2 (or #4 - I forget). Just turn your weather fax gear on ahead of time and let it run. The software will start and stop automatically for each page and save them all. Once in a while a stop tone will be missed and you'll get two charts on one page. The only important thing is power management on your laptop. Set it so the computer never goes to sleep when plugged in, and when you close the lid it does nothing (no changes). You can have the display turn off - that's fine. You'll want an auto/air adapter to run your laptop off 12VDC. Don't cheap out. The third-party adapters such as those from Kensington can be very electrically noisy and disrupt reception.

Originally Posted by MJH

You can Google "Worldwide Marine Radiofacsimile Broadcast Schedules" to see the schedules of the entire world; these schedules sometimes change so make sure it is current when you depart.

They don't actually change often. I think the latest document version is over a year old.

Originally Posted by MJH

The software cost me $213 and tuning up my old SSB radio totaled $455 for two visits.

JVCOMM32 is shareware - I think the fee is $25. You get to try it out free before you decide. MultiPSK is free. Both are fine although MultiPSK has one of the ugliest interfaces I've ever seen. *grin* For Mac a company named Black Cat Systems makes weather fax software.

Originally Posted by StoneCrab

I haven't played with this yet but are you just running the radio output to the microphone jack on the PC? Does OpenCPN know what to do with this sound signal or is something else required?

I have an older Radio Shack Shortwave Radio which doesn't specifically have USB / LSB switch. Is this a problem for receiving the signal?

Radio audio out or line out to the mic jack on your laptop. You have level controls in both the operating system (Windows or Mac) and usually in the weather fax software. JVCOMM32 has a level indicator so you don't overdrive the demodulator.


I used a Kaito KA-1103 for several years that has a sideband mode but not discrete USB/LSB. It works okay, but USB/LSB switching generally gives higher quality pictures. That's one of several reasons I switched to the Tecsun PL-880. The difference is the discrete USB/LSB uses narrower filters and so the signal to noise ratio is better.

Originally Posted by magentawave

1) Regarding the Starpath course... Did you take the online course here: https://www.starpath.com/cgi-bin/web...rine%20Weather that includes the book, Modern Marine Weather for $289? Or did you learn from buying just Modern Marine Weather book for $37 from Amazon? http://tinyurl.com/y3zjvw5p

I didn't post the reference. My experience with Starpath has been good. I took their celestial navigation course many years ago. Customers of mine have taken weather and radar courses there and been happy.

Originally Posted by magentawave

2) Is there a reason you're using SSB and Sailmail to get weatherfaxes vs the cheapo way this guy is doing it with a little inexpensive shortwave radio and a laptop? https://youtu.be/l1QyDVgclto

People are getting things confused. Weather fax is a reception only mode. The inexpensive shortwave radio works fine. If you have a permanently installed HF/SSB with a Pactor modem or if you have a satellite phone you can get gribs. You have to have two-way communications to get gribs; there is no broadcast version. Much of what people in this thread have talked about in this thread relates to gribs. PredictWind, Windy, etc and ALL the smartphone and tablet devices use gribs. At the risk of beating a dead horse I'll repeat myself from the beginning of the thread:
Gribs do not show fronts (or trofs or ridges) which you care about. Synoptic charts show weather artifacts that are not in the gribs. Yes you CAN use HF/SSB/Pactor or satellite to download synoptic charts and they will be a little clearer, but you'll burn data allocation and you can get them free over weather fax. Think of it as the difference between watching Captain Ron on TV (free - weather fax) or streaming from Netflix (uses data - HF/SSB/Pactor or satellite).

Originally Posted by magentawave

Thanks, I appreciate that! I'm 100% willing to put in the time and effort to learn marine weather, but direction as to what are the best learning resources and good reliable and economical equipment is something I'm going to need all the help/direction I can find.

If you were starting new, but knowing what you know now, and you were NOT rich, what would YOU do as far as learning marine weather and what equipment would you get?

I took a three day course from Lee Chesneau. He isn't teaching again yet after some medical issues. He is great. One of cruising sailors best friends. Starpath is an alternative. You can get warmed up with Reed's Marine Meteorology which is the best general text I have come across. Lee also has a long paper about interpreting 500 mb charts that is kicking around the Internet somewhere.

Here is the big deal: homework. Pick a passage. It can be anything. Say Norfolk to Bermuda to Horta Azores. Pick a departure date four or five days out. Start looking at the weather forecasts every morning as if it was real. When you get to "departure" start advancing your position each day (be realistic - no 200 mile days) based on yesterday's real weather. Lather, rinse, and repeat until you "complete" the passage. You'll learn a lot about weather and yourself. Some things to remember: today's 24 hour forecast is for tomorrow; yesterday's 48 hour forecast is for tomorrow. If they are different the atmosphere is unstable and you can expect and should plan for deteriorating conditions. Keep track of the forecaster (name in the title block) some show more than others and you will want to go back to yesterday's charts to contrast. Don't let the nomenclature bother you. A trof is just a distributed low pressure system and a ridge is a distributed high pressure system. Winds clock on passage of a cold front; how much depends but 90 degrees is a good rule of thumb.

The first few mornings you do the exercise you could spend up to an hour. Once you're in the groove you'll find that "doing weather" takes 15 minutes.

When you finish your "passage" take a few days off and then do it again. Practice, practice, practice.

Originally Posted by mvweebles

1. PW $250/yr package vs Professional. I opted for $250/yr. Biggest benefit I could see for $500 professional is it gives effect of currents. More than I was willing to pay.

Ocean current data is readily available on the Internet for free. Currents don't change much so getting a copy before departure is plenty for a trip.

Originally Posted by mvweebles

3. Reliability of PW forecasts. Pretty good, but let's face it, all forecasts are only so-so.

Remember they are gribs and don't show fronts or the wind shifts that go with them.

Originally Posted by mvweebles

6. Using a weather router. I was a delivery skipper for several years and used one a couple times when delivering new boats without weather capabilities. I found the inability to see weather imagery for myself extremely uncomfortable. My preference (if comms were available) was a trusted cruiser friend who was damn good, and would spend all the time needed for my exact route and needs. Again, personal preference. For me, having the knowledge and data source to make my own weather decisions was instrumental. I think it the most overlooked seamanship skill in the toolbox.

Bingo. In fact people like Chris Parker and Lee Chesneau and Frank Bohlen will tell you the same thing. Even if you talk to someone ashore, whether a buddy or a router, you should have the information necessary to make decisions on board. I talked to Herb Hilgenberg every day on my first substantial passage. Herb is/was great although he tended toward light air and I had to keep telling him my goal was 20 kts not 8. *grin* I got much more out of his advice because I could look at most of the same charts he was. I really miss Herb's voice on the air and am glad he is enjoying his retirement. "Have a good watch!"

Originally Posted by waterman46

Sailmail/Winlink via PACTOR allows you to simply request any number of weather products at any time it is convenient to you and when propagation is best. Also PACTOR allows you to pick any station that can hear you, and you can copy them OK as a result. The possibility of making a good readable connection is greater with PACTOR due to these features. And then of course you get the benefit of e-mail communication.

Many folks just don't want to get into marine SSB radio to say nothing of getting a Ham license, either of which takes a major amount of personal commitment. I can understand that and for them the satellite service makes more sense. And the one-way reception of weather faxes via an inexpensive SSB receiver can work fine if you want to go that route. But I would say it is more time consuming and the information you get is limited in comparison to the other methods.

I would feel a little freaked out if I had to cross an ocean without a means of long range 2-way communication. But that's just me.

I agree with you. Supplemental points. 1. PACTOR IV is almost four times faster than Iridium. 2. Satellite systems are NOT cell phones and are prone to troubles. Story to follow. *grin* 3. Aside from some minor regulatory matters you just have to learn, there is NOTHING you have to learn in order to get a General class ham license that you should not know anyway to be a self-sufficient cruiser. Learn the material; the questions and answers will take care of themselves.

Here's the story. I was taking a big Swan from the Chesapeake to BVI and there was a BIG crew. I think there were eight. There was lots of room, the owner was okay with the extra food costs, and living was easy. Two person watches, a cook, and I could just navigate, do weather, coach and teach. And sleep. I slept a lot. As it happened Valentine's Day landed in the middle of the trip and I thought it would be nice for everyone to call their significant other. We had both HF/SSB and sat phone on the boat (and an old thermal dedicated weather fax by the way). I jumped on 14300 and found a ham in Connecticut who was thrilled to help and he ran phone patches for us over the radio. In the time it took for three sat phone calls ("can you hear me?") we ran five HF phone patches. In fairness the rain didn't help the sat phone connection any, but sometimes it rains. Propagation is a real consideration but satellite connections are not bulletproof either.

[Exile]

Excellent info Auspicious! I followed your suggestion by getting a cup of coffee first but it turned out I didn't need it! All very clearly explained.

Also nice to hear, for a change, that SSB is still completely viable if not superior at times to sat phones. Nice to have both if affordable actually, as they often have different applications. My problem, which I suspect many share, is that my otherwise very capable SSB (Icom 802) continues to be the only system onboard that has thus far frustrated me. I know, practice, practice, practice.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Exile

Excellent info Auspicious! I followed your suggestion by getting a cup of coffee first but it turned out I didn't need it! All very clearly explained.

I don't know whether (weather? *grin*) to blush or preen. Very kind of you to say.

Originally Posted by Exile

Also nice to hear, for a change, that SSB is still completely viable if not superior at times to sat phones. Nice to have both if affordable actually, as they often have different applications.

You might note that the US Navy is putting HF/SSB back on ships.

Originally Posted by Exile

My problem, which I suspect many share, is that my otherwise very capable SSB (Icom 802) continues to be the only system onboard that has thus far frustrated me. I know, practice, practice, practice.

Hmm. The 802 is a darn good radio. The biggest issues are poor installation and interference. Both are relatively straightforward to correct. It's diagnosis that can be the tricky bit. I'm happy to help. dave@auspiciousworks.com Not sure where the land of disenchantment is, but if it's close to Annapolis we can have a look see.

[Capt Gill]

Auspicious, so kind and generous of you to offer help on this issue. I'm getting round to (after higher priorities) familiarizing myself with an old IC M-600 SSB that came with my boat, so assuming you're not inundated with helping others at the time you may hear from me.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Capt Gill

Auspicious, so kind and generous of you to offer help on this issue. I'm getting round to (after higher priorities) familiarizing myself with an old IC M-600 SSB that came with my boat, so assuming you're not inundated with helping others at the time you may hear from me.

Hello Jack. I'm happy to help. I'm often inundated *grin* but I get to everyone eventually. The M600 radio works pretty well until it stops. The most common failure point is the multi-mode fiber-optic cable between the control head and the radio. Unfortunately that part isn't available and I don't know of any substitutes. Be very gentle moving things around on your boat near those connections! When I get really busy I fall off the forums and PMs don't get into my tickle system. Email is best dave@auspiciousworks.com.



sail fast and eat well, dave

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

I don't know whether (weather? *grin*) to blush or preen. Very kind of you to say.


You might note that the US Navy is putting HF/SSB back on ships.


Hmm. The 802 is a darn good radio. The biggest issues are poor installation and interference. Both are relatively straightforward to correct. It's diagnosis that can be the tricky bit. I'm happy to help. dave@auspiciousworks.com Not sure where the land of disenchantment is, but if it's close to Annapolis we can have a look see.

Thanks for noting that the Navy is returning to HF/SSB. I've always thought it could be one of the more interesting, fun & useful features of long-distance cruising. Assuming I can learn how to use it that is . . . . And since I've already made the substantial investment in equipment, why pay more in satphone subscription fees?

I'd love to find out that my problems are related to installation and/or interference, but I've had several techs & knowledgeable friends onboard -- incl. CF's own Bill Trayfors -- check it out and conclude all seemed OK. I tried following the "Idi-Yachts" guide, so maybe you can recommend a "Moron's" guide?? More seriously, I just don't think I've put sufficient time into it, as there always seems to be higher boat priorities to tend to. That's my excuse anyway.

Thanks for the offer of help. My boat is in Norfolk these days and I often sail the Bay. I've sailed to Annapolis many times so it wouldn't be hard to make the boat available. Although worth confirming potential hardware issues, I suspect a tutorial may be all that is needed. I'm sure your schedule gets tight as we get further along into the Fall, but I will contact you via your e-mail above if I can swing a trip up there. In the meantime, thanks again for all the helpful info.

[Auspicious]

Originally Posted by Exile

I'd love to find out that my problems are related to installation and/or interference, but I've had several techs & knowledgeable friends onboard -- incl. CF's own Bill Trayfors -- check it out and conclude all seemed OK.

Bill was very good and we worked together a number of times. You know he passed?

If Bill said you're okay we should look at deterioration and operation.

Originally Posted by Exile

I tried following the "Idi-Yachts" guide, so maybe you can recommend a "Moron's" guide??

I'm not impressed with either Marti Brown (Idi-Yachts) or Terry Sparks (Simple for Cruisers). I've been asked to write something myself and would love to do so with John MacDougall KA4WJA if I can talk him into it. Maybe someday.

Frankly I think searching CF and SN and a few other places for anything posted by John or me is a good start. I have all the posts from the old SSCA forum before it went all Facebook.
If you can get up here, or close, we can spend some time together. I speak on these topics and have a lot of material already in hand to share. The rough bit for some people is getting up early to get off the dock and out somewhere away from external interference. From Annapolis I like either Whitehall Bay or off Bembe Beach. From Herrington Harbor out by the duck blind in Herring Bay is great. From Solomons I use Hog Point. Down near Norfolk Crumps Bank or Lynnhaven Roads work well. The trick is to get up early enough to be anchor down in time for the Waterway Net and then Cruiseheimers. Then there is time to fiddle before 20 meters starts to come in and 14300 lights up.

I've slept on the floor on a lot of boats to be ready to go in the morning. *grin*

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Auspicious

Bill was very good and we worked together a number of times. You know he passed?

If Bill said you're okay we should look at deterioration and operation.



I'm not impressed with either Marti Brown (Idi-Yachts) or Terry Sparks (Simple for Cruisers). I've been asked to write something myself and would love to do so with John MacDougall KA4WJA if I can talk him into it. Maybe someday.

Frankly I think searching CF and SN and a few other places for anything posted by John or me is a good start. I have all the posts from the old SSCA forum before it went all Facebook.
If you can get up here, or close, we can spend some time together. I speak on these topics and have a lot of material already in hand to share. The rough bit for some people is getting up early to get off the dock and out somewhere away from external interference. From Annapolis I like either Whitehall Bay or off Bembe Beach. From Herrington Harbor out by the duck blind in Herring Bay is great. From Solomons I use Hog Point. Down near Norfolk Crumps Bank or Lynnhaven Roads work well. The trick is to get up early enough to be anchor down in time for the Waterway Net and then Cruiseheimers. Then there is time to fiddle before 20 meters starts to come in and 14300 lights up.

I've slept on the floor on a lot of boats to be ready to go in the morning. *grin*

I'm very sorry to hear about Bill's passing. I did not know but had my suspicions since I've have not seen any postings for quite awhile. I first learned about Bill from an online SSCA lecture he gave, and was so impressed I brought the boat up to D.C. to meet with him. Overall a worthwhile & fun trip anchoring off the old Capitol Yacht Club (he was a member) in the Washington Channel. Bill not only tested my SSB but helped me make a couple of improvements, incl. wiring it directly to the house batt. bank and adding a cooling fan to my suite of electronics. I quickly got the impression that Bill operated at a substantially higher level, and that helping fellow cruisers out with their SSB's, etc. was just a fun hobby for him. I've missed his clearly worded, succinct, and usually definitive posts on a variety of electronics-related topics. (Belated) condolences to his family & friends.

I would have no problem anchoring the night before in one of your suggested locales, and could certainly offer nicer sleeping accommodations than the floor! Part of my frustration could well indeed be the result of inevitable interference from all too often being docked in a marina. I can report, however, that some years ago, in a secluded anchorage in the N. Bahamas, I picked up a couple of Ham guys in Puerto Rico which my GPS indicated was ~800nm away. I've also managed to communicate with some farmers out in the midwest.

My system was professionally installed but my boat has no grounding plate. Rather than installing one, the solid bronze rudder stock was used in lieu of. This always raised some doubts in my mind but Bill & others seemed OK with it. Again, I think the core of the problem lies with the operator as opposed to the hardware, but it wouldn't hurt to have another set of knowledgeable eyes take a look.

Yes, I agree that John MacDougall (KA4WJA) has been another excellent CF resource, and has also produced a number of youTubes that have been most helpful. He also has a video or two of his Atlantic crossings which are enjoyable. As someone who has had a career in a rather specialized albeit non-techy field, I think much of the problem for people trying to learn SSB lies more in how it is being taught than with the complexity of the field itself. A common problem in any specialized area, but the use of terminology & acronyms unique to HF/SSB makes it especially frustrating to laymen, IMHO that is. If you & John could develop a written guide that surmounts these issues I believe it would go a long way towards increasing the popularity & usefulness of this technology. Like any field, people who have been immersed in the jargon for a long time are often unaware that such terminology is not universally understood.

I will get back to through your e-mail address if I can pull off a trip north later this month. Thanks again for your offer.

[HBrew]

Originally Posted by magentawave

Are you paying for PredictWinds Standard Package or Professional Package?

https://forecast.predictwind.com/reg...change/package

Professional - as I mentioned, you need this level to get currents.