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Old 23-11-2019, 05:14   #541
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Terje Vigen View Post
I'm quite convinced, that not only when the going gets tough, Nikki and Riley are not the only valuable crew resources on LA VAGABONDE
But that being said, I'm also convinced that it is Nikki and Riley who contribute most.
From latest facebook update:
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Full Main. Full jib. 16 to 46 knots of wind in about 30 seconds. No time on this occasion for weather gear">foul weather gear, but trust me it’s cold. The second photo is our “we survived” face Elayna managed to capture of Nikki and I on the GoPro. Really can’t wait to share the videos with you guys. #northatlantic #sailinglavagabonde

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Old 23-11-2019, 05:32   #542
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Terje Vigen View Post
But that being said, I'm also convinced that it is Nikki and Riley who contribute most.
From latest facebook update:


And there are many ways to “ contribute “ on a boat , on many boats I have heard it said that the cook is the most important !! I know that on my most major trip , ( not trans at ) was 5 days and 4 nites at sea my wife who had never been on a boat before was totally invaluable !! Tho I don’t think she pulled many ropes ( held a few ) and was never out of the cockpit in any weather or when I was not in the cockpit w her , it takes all types and I am sure even Greta is playing a part .ps , thanks for photos and extract
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Old 23-11-2019, 05:49   #543
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
The 'cone' (track uncertainty) for Sebastien is pretty small. It is being steered by strong high pressure, and we mostly know where it will go.
The uncertainty around Sebastien comes not from the expected track, but from difference in forecasted speeds. GFS and ECMWF estimates twice the speed compared to the PW models. On the GFS and ECMWF models in 48 hours it has already left the mapped area towards the NE.
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Old 23-11-2019, 06:58   #544
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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On the GFS and ECMWF models in 48 hours it has already left the mapped area towards the NE.
I think we both agree there is still some uncertainty, but that probably it is not of much immediate concern for the routing.

However, I am a bit puzzled, because what you say above is not what I see from ecmwf and GFS . . . or I guess your picture square cut off before the Azores? But it is still in the area of the voyage routing.

GFS noon (UTC) Monday - Sebastien is just below the Azores

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and

ECMWF - is just barely to the NE of Azores

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ID:	203600
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:05   #545
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

The windy hurricane tracker has the GPS & ECMWF models matching pretty closely as well >>

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Old 23-11-2019, 07:12   #546
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
I think we both agree there is still some uncertainty, but that probably it is not of much concern for the routing.

However, I am a bit puzzled, because what you say above is not what I see from ecmwf and GFS . . . or I guess your picture square cut off before the Azores? But it is still in the area of the voyage routing.

GFS noon (UTC) Monday - Sebastien is just below the Azores

Attachment 203601

and

ECMWF - is just barely to the NE of Azores

Attachment 203600
that is where mine has it on monday , around the 35 x 36 mark , blowing 35 k, but ( i think ) Vagy may well be up around 38 x 40 mark by then
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:15   #547
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by conachair View Post
The windy hurricane tracker has the GPS & ECMWF models matching pretty closely as well
I'm going to have to study/learn all the tabs and options on Windy sometime. I've always used routing software, but Windy has some great graphic options which I don't know about.
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:18   #548
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Cherod View Post
Vagy may well be up around 38 x 44 mark by then
I am sort of imagining that they may have had a soft agreement among the crew at the start of the voyage that they would not go above 40 degree N, and they still don't have to, but the light air pockets are making it look real attractive for boat speed . . . but it will be colder and possibly windier in the fronts . . . so there may be a debate on board atm about how to balance all that. Or I could just be imagining all that
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:22   #549
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
I am sort of imagining that they may have had a soft agreement among the crew at the start of the voyage that they would not go above 40 degree N, and they still don't have to, but the light air pockets are making it look real attractive for boat speed . . . but it will be colder and possibly windier in the fronts . . . so there may be a debate on board atm about how to balance all that. Or I could just be imagining all that
is that eberspacher time
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:25   #550
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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does it seem that they will try to catch the bottom of that newfoundland low before it moves away again and then nxt day or so catch the bottom of that northerly high ?? maybe thats a plan
ooops,,, should of course read " northerly low " !! my bad
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:27   #551
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
I am sort of imagining that they may have had a soft agreement among the crew at the start of the voyage that they would not go above 40 degree N, and they still don't have to, but the light air pockets are making it look real attractive for boat speed . . . but it will be colder and possibly windier in the fronts . . . so there may be a debate on board atm about how to balance all that. Or I could just be imagining all that
you got me before i edited my typo ,, but point taken
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:38   #552
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
I'm going to have to study/learn all the tabs and options on Windy sometime. I've always used routing software, but Windy has some great graphic options which I don't know about.
Full time job, they seem to add new features every week
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Old 23-11-2019, 07:45   #553
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
However, I am a bit puzzled, because what you say above is not what I see from ecmwf and GFS . . . or I guess your picture square cut off before the Azores? But it is still in the area of the voyage routing.

ECMWF - is just barely to the NE of Azores
Yes, the area displayed by the PW website for the boat's location stopped just short of the Azores. Attached is the ECMWF forecast area that covers the Azores. The green dot is Horta. Forecast is for noon GMT Monday. Tried to show an area closest to the one on yours.

Still there are interesting differences beyond the better resolution and more refined isobars. Not huge, but gives the feeling that the windy and the PW website picture may show different runs of the model.
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Old 23-11-2019, 08:16   #554
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
The 'cone' (track uncertainty) for Sebastien is pretty small. It is being steered by strong high pressure, and we mostly know where it will go.

The unknown atm is when and how it will disappear - will it just melt away, or sit there for a while or fold into one of the northern lows.

Fortunately for this thread, the track is far enough away from the vessel routing to not cause immediate concern almost no matter how it fades away.

But these systems can do very odd and unforecast things . . . a comment I made upthread caused me to remember my experience with Hurricane Lenny, it tracked west to east in the tropics, which the forecasters every day said was basically impossible and that it would turn north shortly, and yet it never did just kept going 'the wrong way'.
Extraordinarily documented in John Kretschmer's book At the Mercy of the Sea: The True Story of Three Sailors in a Caribbean Hurricane.
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Old 23-11-2019, 09:11   #555
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Does anyone have a connection to the La Vagabond crew or Nikki who can ask them about a post trip summary of their logbook data with this thread's analysis? As someone whose weather routing skills on my first two paasages were laughably inadequate, I've been learning a lot from this (with much appreciation to BreakingWaves!) and what Windy now offers, which is simply remarkable. I realize their reality at any given time can be quite a bit different than what the models predict (as was discussed earlier about the wind angles), but it would be interesting to me to hear about their thinking processes on their routing decisions even if it came from their professional routing support. Particularly what they were deciding to do about the TS.
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