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Old 16-11-2019, 03:05   #31
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Budawang View Post
That's a sharp turn. Still only doing 7.1 knots despite what looks like 20 knot winds on the beam. Maybe they're being quite cautious.
Maybe they are restricted by sea state.
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Old 16-11-2019, 04:21   #32
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by boatman61 View Post
Maybe they are restricted by sea state.

That's my guess. Plus the fact that they should be reefed for the gusts on a cat and it looks like it's gusting well over 30 knots where they are.


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Old 16-11-2019, 05:09   #33
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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You know, while Iím against the whole using a child for publicity thing and doubt that she is behind this as much as you guys think, I think a few adults are actually pulling the strings.

I do have to hand it to them for trying to lower their CO2 footprint, at least they donít live in huge mansions, travel by private jet, and have large houseboats etc and then try to tell me I need to walk to work or not go on a vacation, you know to save the Earth, while they consume 10 times the average.

Iím not aware of them making any claim that sailing was carbon neutral?
When I was 16 and 17 I was finding my own sailing gigs including doing a delivery from Ft Lauderdale to Puerto Rico. So I don't see why it's difficult to see a 16 year old doing there own thing?

Obviously, this thing is a whole publicity stunt mainly for LaVagabonde. Hopefully they don't run into any serious weather. Seems a bad time or year to cross the N Atlantic in a performance cat.
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Old 16-11-2019, 05:12   #34
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Have sailed that area and the seas can get quite confused for a while when the wind shifts, plus if its S over N swell you will get the odd bigger than average breaking wave.
Had a bulkhead pop in that area when one of them dumped on me.
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Old 16-11-2019, 05:41   #35
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

GFS for the next little while >


And a handy one to view the 5640m 500mB line
https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=larg...23&skewtstep=0
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Old 16-11-2019, 05:42   #36
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Boatguy30 View Post
When I was 16 and 17 I was finding my own sailing gigs including doing a delivery from Ft Lauderdale to Puerto Rico. So I don't see why it's difficult to see a 16 year old doing there own thing?

Obviously, this thing is a whole publicity stunt mainly for LaVagabonde. Hopefully they don't run into any serious weather. Seems a bad time or year to cross the N Atlantic in a performance cat.
But... A performance cat is only a liability with too much sail up. After you reef , it's looking longer a performance cat.
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Old 16-11-2019, 06:11   #37
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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But... A performance cat is only a liability with too much sail up. After you reef , it's looking longer a performance cat.


And a performance cat with reduced sail will still make good time with a lot less stress on the rig.
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Old 16-11-2019, 06:35   #38
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

People seem to forget about hull stresses for some reason with cats..
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Old 16-11-2019, 07:35   #39
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They are probably a bit overloaded - looks like about 6" down on their lines - would not be surprising with new kid on board, v blogging equipment, not really performance-oriented life philosophy.

Photo on departure:

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and boat show photo (note the several inches of black bottom paint showing):

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Based on performance to-date the polar is getting rather closer to actuality. I have turned it down 34% from 'potential' plus another 20% down during nighttime - now makes the numbers close to a cruising monohull with that waterline length. new routing up in a moment.
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Old 16-11-2019, 07:45   #40
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

here is what the wind looks like for the next few hours on the route

Click image for larger version

Name:	<a title=route log.jpg Views: 332 Size: 434.0 KB ID: 203204" style="margin: 2px" />

20-25 building, behind the beam and continuing to shift aft. Really pretty nice.

If they had kept up their speed, they would have missed the building wind.
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Old 16-11-2019, 07:48   #41
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by boatman61 View Post
People seem to forget about hull stresses for some reason with cats..


And with less stress on the rig, less stress on the structure?
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Old 16-11-2019, 07:50   #42
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

and they are now (again because of slower speed) expected to get a 'real' 40 kts sustained blow on the 21st.

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This blow could be minimized/reduced by staying some south, in a lighter wind pattern, but that further south routing reduces sustained speed - which is an interesting safety trade-off (low speed = more exposure over whole crossing).
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Old 16-11-2019, 07:50   #43
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by conachair View Post
GFS for the next little while >


And a handy one to view the 5640m 500mB line
https://www.wxcharts.com/?panel=larg...23&skewtstep=0
Looks perfectly find for them no? 1.8m waves and winds in the 20s gusting over 30 but calming down after Monday. They are by Bermuda so well away from those nasty deep dark purple zones

Quote:
Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
They are probably a bit overloaded - looks like about 6" down on their lines - would not be surprising with new kid on board, v blogging equipment, not really performance-oriented life philosophy.
Blogging equipment? I've probably got more than they have and it would be less than 15kg in weight easily.

I am curious though, what is the interest in the weather for this crossing opposed to say Uma's crossing a while back, or Delos going east to west?
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Old 16-11-2019, 08:01   #44
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
here is what the wind looks like for the next few hours on the route

Attachment 203204

20-25 building, behind the beam and continuing to shift aft. Really pretty nice.

If they had kept up their speed, they would have missed the building wind.
Windy shows the sea state more in line with the wind now, so that should help. Those are some impressive STW/SOG estimates, at least to a monohull guy. Still looks like the same low will overtake them by tomorrow pm and into Mon. Nothing dangerous but probably uncomfortable.

If you know, what is the LWL/WLL on their boat?
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Old 16-11-2019, 08:03   #45
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by mikedefieslife View Post
Looks perfectly find for them no? 1.8m waves and winds in the 20s gusting over 30 but calming down after Monday.


seems like it should be pretty good - bumpy but safe and fast.


I've probably got more than they have and it would be less than 15kg in weight easily.

yea, IDK, but in any case, it is not at all uncommon for cruising monohulls to be 6" down.

I am curious though, what is the interest in the weather for this crossing opposed to say Uma's crossing a while back, or Delos going east to west?

can't speak for others, but for me - west to east at start of winter on a multihull is 'interesting' - one can learn something, rather more so that east to west or summer/early fall which are typically pretty straightforward passages which I have done a ton of.
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