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Old 20-11-2019, 14:05   #316
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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I don't disagree with you, but with good weather routing, good comms, and highly skilled crew, at least a couple of them, and a $million+ boat which has been actually prepared in an actually professional way, this is an entirely different proposition from Rebel Heart, which was half a sailor, without any ocean experience at all, not even trade winds ocean experience, single handed in a cobbled together $20,000 tub. Just the sight of the crew going up the mast on La Vagabonde underlines the dramatic difference in seamanship; that's pro.


I would not personally want to do this in a lightly built performance cat, a kind of boat I really like, but not for this kind of passage. I would personally prefer to be in a really strongly built mono, the larger the better, with which if the S really HTF, you can toss the drogue out, batten down the hatches, and ride out below without concerns about the structure. A boat you wouldn't mind driving at 8 or 9 or 10 knots even in rough sea conditions, something I do with my boat all the time. I think there is a certain risk of getting caught out in a really bad storm, in this season, in those waters, even with the best of weather routing. Probably a small risk, but I don't think it can be entirely eliminated. Is it reasonable to expose a baby to such a risk? I think I would not do it myself, but I don't think we have too much right to judge the decisions of others in this, at least when the adventure is as well planned as this one seems to be.
And of course we will and have the right to judge, it's out there on the public stage for all to judge, that's how this works.

They pull it of and they are heroes, they tragically screw it up and they were fools, that's how this works, that's how us humans work.
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Old 20-11-2019, 14:54   #317
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Oh, the finger wagging, the clucking of tongues and the wringing of hands. Where oh where is the "just go" crowd when you need them?
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Old 20-11-2019, 15:02   #318
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Oh, the finger wagging, the clucking of tongues and the wringing of hands. Where oh where is the "just go" crowd when you need them?
Unnecessary, you add nothing to the conversation. You dont just get to read the comments that suit, that's not how a public discussion works.

As said before , no one is wishing anything but success for La Vagabond.
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Old 20-11-2019, 15:48   #319
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

25-degree course change, more to the north. I would guess this was an autopilot adjustment at a watch change (and perhaps 18z model run).

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consistent with the overall routing, but about 6hrs earlier.
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Old 20-11-2019, 15:51   #320
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Unnecessary, you add nothing to the conversation. You dont just get to read the comments that suit, that's not how a public discussion works.

As said before , no one is wishing anything but success for La Vagabond.
Yes, more wagging of fingers.
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:11   #321
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
25-degree course change, more to the north. I would guess this was an autopilot adjustment at a watch change (and perhaps 18z model run).

Attachment 203482

consistent with the overall routing, but about 6hrs earlier.
still doing 8 knots ENE,seems like they are not slowing down to avoid the low,rather trying to out run it,assuming the track has changed
https://forecast.predictwind.com/tra...ingLaVagabonde
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:12   #322
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

The latest model run did create a slightly earlier (by 3hrs) course change to the north.

Latest is purple line and prior is grey line

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also euro model wants a bit more north than GFS.

But they are all marginal differences.
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:23   #323
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Assessing confidence is perhaps the essential 'black art' in grib routing. If you assess high confidence you can make clever moves and route close to wind fields. If you have low confidence in the forecast accuracy you are more careful, stay further away from system tracks and don't go far off the GC routing chacing favorable winds (which may not develop).

The official forecasters have actual numeric assessments of confidence, but they don't publish them with the grib files, so an offshore user needs to develop both a process for systematically assessing and then just an experienced-based 'feeling'.

I hear Atoll's caution about this sub-tropical low, and understand it because often their 'cone of uncertainty' is large . . . but I have a pretty high assessment of its track confidence, and I believe La Vag's router does (based on what they are doing). It is being pushed hard by a high pressure filling in from the west, and really has no place else to go. But this is exactly the debate you would want to have onboard and with the shore router.

So there has not been a major change in the low's track. The CPA has very slightly increased. And they are not trying to outrun it - that would be fruitless because it is moving quite rapidly by night of the 22nd, but they continue to let it go under and forward of them as they have all along.

Click image for larger version

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This is the 23rd 0500.

and this is 6 hrs previously. CPA is somewhere in between. You can see how fast it is moving.

Click image for larger version

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But yes, the system movement is always uncertain, and we are talking about 3 or 4 days away which is on the very edge of much forecast accuracy. But I personally would be feeling pretty decent with this routing. As always . . . we shall see
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:35   #324
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Who said it was well planned? Who said the boat was properly prepared for this passage? I genuinely ask. It seemed to happen very quickly. They have one professional crew this is a big plus.

I don't know them personally and don't even follow their videos. I don't have detailed information and will be glad to be corrected if I'm wrong, but my impression is that the vessel is well maintained on a decent budget, which is already preparation. And pro crew of course is pro crew -- a huge plus. And the owners anyway have experience far beyond the Rebel Heart level.
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:39   #325
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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And of course we will and have the right to judge, it's out there on the public stage for all to judge, that's how this works.

They pull it of and they are heroes, they tragically screw it up and they were fools, that's how this works, that's how us humans work.

Us humans may be inclined towards that, but it is a foolish pattern of thought, which we should resist. Not everyone who fails is a fool and not everyone who pulls it off is a genius, not by a long shot. We should think more critically than that, and should not be so hasty in making judgements.
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Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:40   #326
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
Assessing confidence is perhaps the essential 'black art' in grib routing. If you assess high confidence you can make clever moves and route close to wind fields. If you have low confidence in the forecast accuracy you are more careful, stay further away from system tracks and don't go far off the GC routing chacing favorable winds (which may not develop).

The official forecasters have actual numeric assessments of confidence, but they don't publish them with the grib files, so an offshore user needs to develop both a process for systematically assessing and then just an experienced-based 'feeling'.

I hear Atoll's caution about this sub-tropical low, and understand it because often their 'cone of uncertainty is large . . . but I have a pretty high assessment of its track confidence, and I believe La Vag's router does (based on what they are doing). It is being pushed hard by a high pressure filling in from the west, and really has no place else to go.


So there has not been a major change in the low's track. The CPA has very slightly increased. And they are not trying to outrun it - that would be fruitless because it is moving quite rapidly by night of the 22nd, but they continue to let it go under and forward of them as they have all along.

Attachment 203484
their current track intersects with a point roughly at 37N,47W
which is the forcast upper limit of storm force winds in 48 hours,which is roughly 400nm,or 2 days run at their current speed.
so hopefully the weather gods are listening!

and just for the record i drew attention to this blip on the day they left as a potential tropical depression,that the forcasters were saying would not develop into anything

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...toa34#contents
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:54   #327
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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my impression is that the vessel is well maintained . . . And pro crew of course is pro crew
I was impressed when Nikki posted that during the recent 'go slow' period they had completed her entire 'to-do' list. I don't know if I have ever completed my entire to-do list at sea.

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and just for the record
Yes, and that was a good call. The Euros did nail that low much much better than the Americans, who took forever to even find it.
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Old 20-11-2019, 16:55   #328
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Us humans may be inclined towards that, but it is a foolish pattern of thought, which we should resist. Not everyone who fails is a fool and not everyone who pulls it off is a genius, not by a long shot. We should think more critically than that, and should not be so hasty in making judgements.
I agree, I'm not seeing hasty judgements made, I'm seeing thought out opinions, not good or bad. These opinions are no less thought out than your own. We judge Dh, its human, judgement doesn't always have to be "judged as negative". Theres only one post here that I've seen that was a silly non thought out waste of time.

Anyway we are derailing a thread that breaking waves is putting alot of effort into.
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:02   #329
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

DH, btw I agree with you regarding not all that fail are fools and all that succeed are heroes, I wrote that with the general public in mind and how they judge...imo.
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:09   #330
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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DH, btw I agree with you regarding not all that fail are fools and all that succeed are heroes, I wrote that with the general public in mind and how they judge...imo.
Like my stock broker always tries to tell me . . . "hindsight's always genius."
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