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Old 20-11-2019, 05:50   #286
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
as expected, they have been driving due east at a bit less than 5 kts.

Looking at routing details just now. It is a bit more involved than the past few days because it is time to start looking beyond this front and getting positioned for the next challenge.
looking at the noaa tracks for sebastian ,they have it passing 30N and 60W in some models,with a NNE-NE trajectory.
since they are already at 34N and 59W this does not really give them much room to carry on their course due east at their current speed
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Old 20-11-2019, 06:14   #287
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

near term . . . .

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wind maximums nowish as they potentially brush the edge of the crush zone between the low to the NW and the high to the east (which shortly turns into the frontal boundary but not yet), and on the 22nd as the get into CPA with the low above them.

This does assume a jybe tomorrow morning. The wind is shifting west and then NW as the low over them moves east. They do not want to go SE because that is both where this sub-tropical low is and there are also some light wind fields there (around the high pressure to east and 'suction' behind the sub tropical low SE of them).

They could jybe and keep going mostly due east on other jybe and that would reduce the winds on the 22nd (further from the center of the low to the north), but that would probably put them in a quite low wind field on the 23rd - an east to west high-pressure ridge which I pointed out a couple of days ago is still expected right there.

So, bottom line - a bit of wind today, probably gusty, in a crush zone, but nothing unmanageable. A gybe tomorrow and start gaining height to avoid e-w high-pressure ridge. They can play with their NE course a bit to vary how much wind they want - minimizing wind maxs would look like: head a little shallower angle until CPA to the low, due east during CPA to the low, and then climb more steeply. That would be a bit slower for the distance but keep the max winds down.
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Old 20-11-2019, 06:55   #288
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

looking longer term, I turned the polar back up to cruising speed.

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You can see the wind spike/short near gale they get from the front/crush zone if they speed up now (20/21st) - so makes good sense to keep cruising along slowly until that passes.

Then nothing too ominous looking. A near gale potential on the 29th as they pass under a low near the Azores.

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they can manage that a bit by being lower latitude, with the tradeoff again being potentially sailing into a very light wind hole. (too far off now in the forecast to have accurate details yet, but just a note of perhaps the next thing to watch and be routing for).

That's will be the classic north atlantic continual decision making after they deal with the current crush zone/front and then jybe - going a bit higher for steadier more sure winds vs lower for easier conditions but risk of getting caught in hole.

The long term routing has bounced around between going right thru the Azores, vs sailing some degrees lower - will depend on where the high-pressure systems actually end up.
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Old 20-11-2019, 08:54   #289
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

well it looks like they have accelerated and turned a bit north - in the crush zone now

now on the course suggested by the routing, gaining a bit of height - accelerated a few hours early that I had thought - must be feeling comfortable with their separation from the low/front formation. They can also park up if they need to.
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Old 20-11-2019, 10:20   #290
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Great work from breaking waves etc , good to be able to keep track of this formidable crew of young ( ish ) people , sad to see tho still some pessimistic comments , eg atoll “ some regretting “ etc , and the attempted dig about the outremer sail bag .( no one responded ! ) i doubt that any of them are in anyway regretting being involved in this adventure and most of us are wishing them all the very best . I for one am looking forward to the videos and I have not watched LaVag for a long time
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Old 20-11-2019, 10:21   #291
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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looking at the noaa tracks for sebastian ,they have it passing 30N and 60W in some models,with a NNE-NE trajectory.
since they are already at 34N and 59W this does not really give them much room to carry on their course due east at their current speed
Yea, all the routings had them turning more northwards, which they have done. This would be their currently forecast CPA using GFS. I guess they are comfortable with it given they have accelerated.

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ETA Lisbon right now is about Dec 7th. But I might have to tune the polar up if they keep up anything like their current 10kts.

I was hoping to follow the all the way to the finish, but have my own gig starting first of Dec. so will probably miss their finish.
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Old 20-11-2019, 10:34   #292
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Cherod View Post
Great work from breaking waves etc , good to be able to keep track of this formidable crew of young ( ish ) people , sad to see tho still some pessimistic comments , eg atoll some regretting etc , and the attempted dig about the outremer sail bag .( no one responded ! ) i doubt that any of them are in anyway regretting being involved in this adventure and most of us are wishing them all the very best . I for one am looking forward to the videos and I have not watched LaVag for a long time
I have seen no ill will towards them, I believe all of us wish them the best and really want them to succeed. Questioning whether it is wise to cross that ocean at this time of year isnt being negative.
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Old 20-11-2019, 10:42   #293
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Cherod View Post
Great work from breaking waves etc , good to be able to keep track of this formidable crew of young ( ish ) people , sad to see tho still some pessimistic comments , eg atoll some regretting etc , and the attempted dig about the outremer sail bag .( no one responded ! ) i doubt that any of them are in anyway regretting being involved in this adventure and most of us are wishing them all the very best . I for one am looking forward to the videos and I have not watched LaVag for a long time
Why would anything less than positive comments make you "sad?" I'm sure nobody wishes any harm to come, but there's no denying the departure locale & time of year make it a potentially riskier passage, and most assuredly a more challenging one. Are you saying that it's unreasonable for people -- esp. newbies -- not to have "regrets" in the midst of uncomfortable (if not scary-to-them) passages? Everyone reacts differently to such stresses, and this thread is (thankfully) designed to be focused on the boat, its crew, and the passage itself, and not on LV's youTube channel or the controversy surrounding Greta Thunberg.

If possible, try and leave your personal biases for another, more suitable thread. I, for one, would welcome more objectivity from the several posters who have a lot of first-hand experience enduring this type of experience.
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:13   #294
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Any idea why they chose to cross now?

I just did this crossing in May and it was a cake walk...full sit down dinners in the cockpit. Why would anyone on a cruising schedule not just wait till a better time of year?
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:23   #295
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Any idea why they chose to cross now?

I just did this crossing in May and it was a cake walk...full sit down dinners in the cockpit. Why would anyone on a cruising schedule not just wait till a better time of year?
The Greta schedule.
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:25   #296
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherod View Post
Great work from breaking waves etc , good to be able to keep track of this formidable crew of young ( ish ) people , sad to see tho still some pessimistic comments , eg atoll some regretting etc , and the attempted dig about the outremer sail bag .( no one responded ! ) i doubt that any of them are in anyway regretting being involved in this adventure and most of us are wishing them all the very best . I for one am looking forward to the videos and I have not watched LaVag for a long time
probably before your time but there were a similar couple on cruisers forum that were also media obsessed that took on an ocean crossing with a baby and slightly older child in a well found hans christian yacht of similar size,it did not end well.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-sea-sick-baby

as for the product placement,the photo will probably get millions of views globally,not a pessamist just a realist,**** happens out there,even to the best intentioned
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:26   #297
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Any idea why they chose to cross now?

UN Climate Conference was moved at last minute from Santiago (due to riots down there) to Madrid.

I just did this crossing in May and it was a cake walk...full sit down dinners in the cockpit. Why would anyone on a cruising schedule not just wait till a better time of year?

Well they had an event that G wanted to get to (by sail). And I think the La Vag folks genuinely wanted to help her out. But I also think it is probably not a bad business move for them at all - will probably build subscribers. And will also probably provide some serious development for them as sailors.

They have been doing the milk run cruiser thing for a while now, had it down pat, and may have been looking for the next challenge. This is roughly in the same camp as an in-season southern ocean passage in terms of challenge and risk, and some of us do those for fun and don't consider it stupid.


..........
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:30   #298
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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..snip
I, for one, would welcome more objectivity from the several posters who have a lot of first-hand experience enduring this type of experience.
Are you saying there's not enough objectivity? IMHO this is one of the most objective threads I've seen for a long time. Not saying I've got a lot of that experience but anyways some

What comes to La Vacabonds voyage it looks good so far and taking a bit more northern course will speed them up. Next thing to watch out being low developing 28-29th around Azores..
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:31   #299
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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..........
Ah, for the publicity then...makes sense in their context.
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Old 20-11-2019, 11:36   #300
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

It is an age-old question of the human condition - why undertake this or that challenge if you don't need to.

Mallory answered "Why did you want to climb Mount Everest?" with the retort "Because it's there" .

It's famous but not a very satisfying answer.

But there is a demand in the human condition (at least for some humans) to stretch themselves and take risks and challenges when they don't need to.

It may be a stupid urge . . . but if so I myself am definitely stupid.

and back to the voyage . . . they are still doing near 10kts, seem to have found their legs.
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