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Old 18-11-2019, 01:59   #181
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Given the fact la vagabonde is not in a race I’m surprised at the number of people who think they are going slow. If I was Riley my priority’s would be to preserve the boat and preserve the crew in that order. An earlier arrival time is a luxury that might suit Gretas agenda but having to be rescued or worse suits no ones purpose and would be a long way down a good skippers list of importance.
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Old 18-11-2019, 02:44   #182
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I have loved the conversation here about how /what they are doing against the changing metrology and the dynamics of not only plotting and planning a course, but sailing it
Could l anticipate and do what they are doing-no
They sailed up the coast for a boat show,
They are doing this trip ,with their young child, not because they they can, but because like all there other exploits ,they work it out and they do it
This is a bigger, one, but from many comments prior ,they are nailing it
Motivation, maybe ‘ More patrons’ ,but could also be either Riley or Elayna just saying ‘love this girl’ and would /can like to help.
Whatever ,given time of year, has got me glued, equally as much as bush fires here in Oz
It is great to track their journey,,and yes there are other boats out in the same conditions, safe passage to all
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Old 18-11-2019, 03:12   #183
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by BlueHeeler View Post
Given the fact la vagabonde is not in a race I’m surprised at the number of people who think they are going slow. If I was Riley my priority’s would be to preserve the boat and preserve the crew in that order. An earlier arrival time is a luxury that might suit Gretas agenda but having to be rescued or worse suits no ones purpose and would be a long way down a good skippers list of importance.
Exactly so.. and if he has common sense he will be letting Nikki make the major calls.. to date he's been a Milk Run sailor and this is outside their comfort zone.
Slow and steady is the name of the game..
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Old 18-11-2019, 03:48   #184
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Exactly so.. and if he has common sense he will be letting Nikki make the major calls.. to date he's been a Milk Run sailor and this is outside their comfort zone.

Slow and steady is the name of the game..


Hmm is it really? [emoji848] I just checked the predict wind tracking (11 GMT) to me it looks like they want to get away from that low chasing them no?
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Old 18-11-2019, 04:25   #185
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Might be a bit late for getting out the road. Where they going to go exactly? Buckle up la vag!
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Old 18-11-2019, 04:30   #186
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Hmm is it really? [emoji848] I just checked the predict wind tracking (11 GMT) to me it looks like they want to get away from that low chasing them no?
You can't outrun a system, the best you can do is change course to try and dodge it.. or at least minimise the effects.
The boats not big enough or strong enough to handle the 12kts minimum sustained speeds needed to stay ahead.. she would start breaking up.
But hey.. I could just be chuntering outa my ass..
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Old 18-11-2019, 05:03   #187
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

On the boat speed question . . . there is a sweet spot, which depends on crew strength, wind and wave conditions, boat capability, and passage length.

If you sail over your 'sweet spot' you risk making a mistake and doing damage, but you do learn one of the reasons some learning time on a racing boat can productive to up your game. While if you sail below your sweet spot, you are potentially increasing your exposure to bad weather - especially off-season or in higher latitudes.

In this case . . . the crew is honestly pretty weak. They have one excellent sailor, and one tropical milk run sailor, a couple helpers, and an infant. So, let's say 1 1/2 'real' sailors given the conditions and the boat. That means fatigue, which lowers your sweet spot speed.

The boat has speed potential, especially reaching. But it is overweight. And it needs to be reefed to the gusts, and it is gusty, and it rewards alert attentive sailors and they have probably been somewhat fatigued. And finally, it prefers flat water . . and it is unclear to me how bumpy the water actually is (the pics they posted don't make it look too terrible). So, it is not perfect conditions for the boat, but it is not so very far from a mom and pop doing adventurous world cruising, so it is a useful benchmark.

The conditions have been unsettled and squally and strongish. That will all lower your speed relative to your polars (vs the same sustained speed in settled flatter water). But they have had enough wind and pretty decent angles the past few days to push the boat along. And the pictures they have posted don't show a horrible sea state. That all would agrue for a faster sweet spot than they have been doing.

But, beyond those basics, there is currently another over-arching weather priority, which is they need to go slow enough to slot in behind the secondary low on the 21st, but fast enough to get above the high-pressure break zone. That means, right at the moment, they have a specific target speed range based on their routing plan, which they are pretty much just exactly hitting. Right at the moment, they don't want to go too fast (or they run into stuff in front of them) but they equally don't want to go too slow (or they get caught). . . . and they are doing it just about exactly right.

I personally had expected the boat to naturally scoot along a bit faster without too much stress or effort... but I have concluded my expectations were simply too high again given all that is going on here.

I have confidence they have been doing this close to exactly right so far, given all they are dealing with. Those who know me, know I don't give praise easily/often . . . but I have been impressed by these guys. I like they stepped up to do something out of their comfort zone, I like the team they put together (because they were honest enough to know they needed help), and I like their attitude and execution so far.

This is a bit of a marathon, and we are only in the early stages.
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Old 18-11-2019, 05:08   #188
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

routing this morning . . . as expected steady as she goes to the ENE.

the last three routings have bobbled around a little depending on the specific forecast but they all have converged at essentially exactly the same waypoint (circled in black) as the best place to deal with the weather on the 21st. I like seeing that consistency - gives some confidence that the essence of the forecast is stable and your objective is clear. Then you can just put your head down and get there and not worry about it too much.

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Old 18-11-2019, 05:23   #189
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

looking forward, as skipper - I would try to be quite rested for the 21st - they will have a gale then. The wind will build already on the 20th to high 20's (sustained, higher gusts). I would gybe early and get small sails set early and make sure we have easy to eat food ready and snug everything down before the front. This is an advantage of decent weather info - you can plan out everything and get it done ahead and not in a panic of gusts. Based on current forecast I would want everything to be all set and ready by midnight (UTC) the 20th - winds forecast to build at 1:00 the 21st - this will ofc bobble around as their speed and the forecast get updated and I would have the weather team watch this and keep me informed on the 'get ready' time. This will not totally ease off until the 23rd, so it will be another period of strong winds and bumpy seas. Nothing to be scared of, but something to be well prepared for.

And then right now, I would start the weather team looking at the 27th. Its too early and there is too much going on for the skipper to put much attention into it but they shore team can start following that.
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Old 18-11-2019, 05:54   #190
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

big picture comparison . . . this is looking similar to an 'in season' southern ocean passage. An unavoidable gale a week or so - and perhaps an unavoidable storm or two (not so far but we will see). And it seems a bit less 'settled' and gustier. But it is warmer weather, which makes everything a bit nicer, and overall the wind angles are better.
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Old 18-11-2019, 05:54   #191
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

The current Low Pressure system should track away above them to the North East hopefully moderating their conditions somewhat for a spell.

But as Breaking Waves mentioned, there is also the High Pressure zone to consider as well as the next Low Pressure system rolling off the US East Coast in the coming days which may bring stronger conditions again.

I think Breaking Waves is giving a pretty good commentary here and agree that they seem to be striking a balance between not pushing too far ahead, not getting too far behind, not damaging the boat, and keeping some degree of comfort onboard motion wise.

So far so good it seems, although I might already be mutinying over Elena's food... (or getting in the galley myself)

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Old 18-11-2019, 06:31   #192
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
...it is unclear to me how bumpy the water actually is (the pics they posted don't make it look too terrible). So, it is not perfect conditions for the boat, but it is not so very far from a mom and pop doing adventurous world cruising, so it is a useful benchmark.
Here is a little more data on the sea state.
During the last 12 hours - around 2.7 - 3.0m Waves and around 1.7m Swell.
During the next 12 hours - around 3.0 - 3.5m Waves and around 2.3m Swell

https://www.windy.com/33.995/-63.534...sure,m:eBOaeph

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Old 18-11-2019, 07:09   #193
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I've mostly been following this thread. I have a question I have not seen addressed. Is Greta Thunberg crew or passenger? Is she at least a baby sitter? Three effective crew or one-and-a-half?
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Old 18-11-2019, 07:27   #194
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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that's a nice link. I had not looked at that tab on windy before. thanks much.

and it does show very graphically what has been mentioned before, that while the wind angles are quite favorable they do have sizable swell quite far forward.

I had always relied on the FNMOC-WW3 wave gribs if I wanted some data to look at, but windy is easier/nicer (at least if you have good internet).
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Old 18-11-2019, 07:30   #195
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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I've mostly been following this thread. I have a question I have not seen addressed. Is Greta Thunberg crew or passenger? Is she at least a baby sitter? Three effective crew or one-and-a-half?
If you are referencing my comment . . . I did say "1 1/2 'real' sailors", and I believe Greta could follow instructions (when she is not seasick) but is certainly not a 'real sailor'.

for 'helpers' . . . they have Greta, and her dad. Elayna I personally would have assigned priority to looking after the infant, and not expect her to help with the sailing much except when the infant was fast asleep.
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