Belize to the Keys ...and back

[Capn Bri]

I need to sail from Belize to Key West and back before July of 2019. This involves getting up the Yucatan Peninsula, through the Yucatan Straits and over to the Keys.

I am not new to sailing the Caribbean but I have never sailed this route before. Can I ask for advice from other skippers who may have run this route before?

Here is my thinking so far. As I read the weather and current patterns for the months of March and April the only challenge on the way North I see is the potential for moderately strong Northerlies from any lingering Winder Jet Steam. The Northbound current accelerates in the Yucatan Strait and if it meets a North wind, things can get bouncy. That makes the return trip more of a challenge, other than the fact that by May, the Jet Stream is usually less of a factor.

I am also aware of the potential storm threat as the tail end of this timeframe is on the approach to hurricane season. However, baring an early hurricane this likely only increases the potential for more squalls.

Am I thinking right?

- BH

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[belizesailor]

Generally yes, but Im a bit puzzled by your references to the Jet Stream (a high altitude wind feature over N America), do you mean Gulf Stream?

Most work their way up to Isla Mujeres and wait for a weather window there.

In winter months, cold fronts can be both a blessing and a curse, bringing more severe weather (curse) and wind shifts (blessing). Winter cold fronts mean you have more opportunities to catch a wind shift to make it to Florida. In the spring-summer that option goes away and the choice is mostly between stronger or weaker prevailing winds.

[belizesailor]

A snippet from my Western Caribbean Cruising Notes below re currents along this route. And an image showing these currents.

"
The Western Caribbean has large complex current systems which dominate the area plus lots of minor local currents along each coastal area. Understanding these can be a big help in planning passages through the area.
There are several major ocean currents to contend with when transiting the region. These are the Yucatan Current, Gulf Loop Current, and the Florida Current. The Yucatan Current flows S to N off Belize and Mexico. It compresses between the Yucatan Peninsular and Cuba, then splits to form the Gulf Loop Current and the Florida Current. The Gulf Loop Current is highly variable both in speed and location. I've encountered it as far N as 160 miles S of Mobile Bay! It is important to have up to date information on the Gulf Loop Current when transiting to or from the USA.

The Florida Current is often also referred to as the Gulf Stream, but technically the Gulf Stream does not begin until the Florida Current exits the Florida Straits. The image below shows these major ocean currents.

"

[Capn Bri]

Hey thanks for your reply!

Originally Posted by belizesailor

Generally yes, but Im a bit puzzled by your references to the Jet Stream (a high altitude wind feature over N America), do you mean Gulf Stream?

No. I mean the Jet stream. During the Winter the Jet Stream bulge reaches further South, sometimes as far South as Texas. At this time of year I have observed that the prevailing East wind shifts to the North and can generate strong Northerlies in Belize. I assume that much the same thing happens up in the Gulf.

Most work their way up to Isla Mujeres and wait for a weather window there.

Yes, that seems to be the best plan.

In winter months, cold fronts can be both a blessing and a curse, bringing more severe weather (curse) and wind shifts (blessing). Winter cold fronts mean you have more opportunities to catch a wind shift to make it to Florida. In the spring-summer that option goes away and the choice is mostly between stronger or weaker prevailing winds.

Got it. Thanks. Yeah, I am hoping to get the blessing side of that! The biggest challenge will be the return to Belize in late April or possibly in May. This will be a largely up-current ride and from the pilot charts I see that in May the current can run up close to 2 knots going North through the Yucatan Strait.

My plan is to cross to the Yucatan well North of the strait to avoid the strongest currents and then, hopefully, find the least amount of current along the coast going back South to Belize.

Does that make sense?

Thanks again!

- BH

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[Capn Bri]

Originally Posted by belizesailor

The Florida Current is often also referred to as the Gulf Stream, but technically the Gulf Stream does not begin until the Florida Current exits the Florida Straits. The image below shows these major ocean currents.

"Attachment 182660

That image is very helpful. I see the stronger current is closer to the Yucatan coast than I thought.

That means going North it would be best to "hug" the coast (staying well enough off shore to avoid the bottom, of course), while heading back South it would be best to stay to the East of that current long enough to avoid the strongest part of the costal current, and then cut to the West later when approaching Belize.

Sound about right?

- BH

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[belizesailor]

There is a seasonal shift of the NE trade winds, most pronounced in the NW Carib, from NE to SE in winter and summer respective. I dont know systemically what causes that, but the Jet Stream could be an influence I suppose.

Originally Posted by Capn Bri

Hey thanks for your reply!



No. I mean the Jet stream. During the Winter the Jet Stream bulge reaches further South, sometimes as far South as Texas. At this time of year I have observed that the prevailing East wind shifts to the North and can generate strong Northerlies in Belize. I assume that much the same thing happens up in the Gulf.



Yes, that seems to be the best plan.



Got it. Thanks. Yeah, I am hoping to get the blessing side of that! The biggest challenge will be the return to Belize in late April or possibly in May. This will be a largely up-current ride and from the pilot charts I see that in May the current can run up close to 2 knots going North through the Yucatan Strait.

My plan is to cross to the Yucatan well North of the strait to avoid the strongest currents and then, hopefully, find the least amount of current along the coast going back South to Belize.

Does that make sense?

Thanks again!

- BH

.

[belizesailor]

Re the return trip. These currents move around a bit, but you can usually avoid much of the Yucatan Current by turning S near the W end of Cuba and sailing to the E of the E wall of the Yucatan current.

Ive got some previous weather routing images I will upload later that show both northbound and southbound routes. The southbound one was for a contonuous run from Ft Myers to the Rio Dulce and worked out great.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Capn Bri

That image is very helpful. I see the stronger current is closer to the Yucatan coast than I thought.

That means going North it would be best to "hug" the coast (staying well enough off shore to avoid the bottom, of course), while heading back South it would be best to stay to the East of that current long enough to avoid the strongest part of the costal current, and then cut to the West later when approaching Belize.

Sound about right?

- BH

.

Basically, but going N, with the flow of the Yucatan Current, you can run further offshore and get a boost from it.

Also when leaving Isla Mujeres, when the Gulf Loop is as positioned as shown, you can get a little northerly boost from it, sail across the eye of the loop to avoid most of the current, then cut across it to get to Key West.

Will load old weather routing plots to show these routes later.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Capn Bri

That image is very helpful. I see the stronger current is closer to the Yucatan coast than I thought.

That means going North it would be best to "hug" the coast (staying well enough off shore to avoid the bottom, of course), while heading back South it would be best to stay to the East of that current long enough to avoid the strongest part of the costal current, and then cut to the West later when approaching Belize.

Sound about right?

- BH

.

...


Yes, its VERY close off the NE Yucatan. Its one reason that Cozumel has such great drift diving....huge walls + lots of current to keep the water clear and sweep divers effortlessly along the face of the walls.

[belizesailor]

Two route images attached. Old routings, but overlaid with today's currents, which were similar to when these routes were run.

First route is Isla Mujeres to Key West. This route was started on a NW wind after a frontal pasage. Second was Fort Myers to Rio Dulce, run in prevailing winds, but I cropped off the Ft Myers end since its not relevant to get more detailed zoom on the rest of the route. You could follow a similar route on your return depending on where you want to re-enter Belize. It is more common for cruisers to break this up by stopping into Isla, but this puts them into more contrary current. Most run close to the coast going south from Isla to minimize it and sometimes even pick up a little counter current. However, doing it all in one shot is not a bad run in the prevailing trades.

Note: just like the Gulf Stream, the Yucatan Current can get nasty in strong northerly winds.