Purpose. Establish a statistical expectation for
boating on the
Great Lakes based upon my wave and
wind preferences operating an Aspen c90. The results support a GO – NO GO planning process whereby multi-day
boating plans consider uncertainty. A particular multi-day trip planning process involves other resources and considerations.
Limitations. Data is from March 2021 through November 2021.
-Up to three discreet locations per body of water are combined into a score.
-My preferences 1) wave height maximum not to exceed 2.6 feet (all wave periods) for hours 6:00am to 5:00pm; 2) sustained
wind does not exceed 20 miles-per-hour for hours 6:00am to 5:00pm; 3) gusty wind does not exceed 20 miles-per-hour for hours 3:00am to 12:00pm.
-Data is interpreted from
Great Lakes Environmental
Research Laboratory (NOAA/GLERL Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System, GLCFS) and WindFinder (
https://www.windfinder.com/). Bodies of water not evaluated are Michigan Lake (central and south), Superior Lake (west),
Ontario Lake (west).
-Analysis tools use user defined functions, Microsoft Excel functions and add-in Analysis Toolkit.
-Actual buoy data are not considered.
Fog and thunderstorms are not considered.
Methodology. 6-day forecasts from the sources are scored as meet criteria “GO” or does not meet criteria “NO-GO”.
-Each day, future forecasts are rescored, volatility is identified and rendered into a measure.
-Past data is not changed.
-Scored data is interpreted into accumulated trend [GO is positive 1 and NO-GO is negative 1], simple probability, and conditional probabilities.
-Analysis of data includes trending, correlation, covariance, conditional probability, and t-test evaluation of populations. Analysis is time dependent, i.e., between a calendar start and calendar stop.
Trends (1 June through 1 September).
-Single day GO is 70% or above except Lake Erie (central and east) which are 60%.
-Given one good boating day the likelihood of the next day being a good boating day is 50% or above, except Lake Erie (central and east) which are 40%.
-Given two good boating days the likelihood of the next day being a good boating day is 40% or above, except Lake Erie (central and east) which are 30%.
-Given three good boating days the likelihood of the next day being a good boating day is 30% or above, except Lake Erie (central and east) which are 20%.
-Additionally, the chance (NOAA forecasts) of thunderstorms from middle July through November further adversely impacts Lake Erie, Lake Saint Clair, and Lake Huron (south).