Quote:
Originally Posted by kubota
so just to be clear, when a group of criminals whom I have personally and forcibly removed from my premise tells law enforcement they targeted me by using the internet, I am just being paranoid if in future I curtail the availability of my location information and social media profiles at home and on my boat?
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Hmm maybe, maybe not. Now we get into Bayesian statistics. What is the probability of being burgled by criminals using the
internet to identify victims, given that you have been targeted in such a way once before?
I honestly have no idea whether that probability is substantially different than the baseline. 5 minutes of googling didn't reveal any useful statistics to estimate this relationship, and I'm not going to put a ton of time into it. I did come across this one though: "Offenders were known to their victims in 65% of violent burglaries." (1) That might suggest that strangers seeing your info online prevent less risk than the guy you chat up at the pub.
Regardless, refraining from
posting details online is an extremely low effort risk mitigation activity. Much like donning the life jacket, it takes so little time that it may be worth doing even to avoid a low likelihood risk. So by all means, don't tell me where you are. But focusing solely on that risk does represent a sampling bias since you're considering one event instead of broader trends.
Edit: Forgot to link the source. (1)
https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/ascii/vdhb.txt