Three Tropical Waves Developing

[GordMay]

According to the US National Hurricane Center [NHC]*, three tropical waves are developing, with a lower potential to impact the eastern US.

* Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

[Opsin150]

Thanks GordMay, definitely helpful!!!!!

Cheers!

[Tin Tin]

4 disturbances now https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

[GordMay]

“Tropical Weather Outlook” - 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Originally Posted by NHC

“ 1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. Satellite-derived winds show this system does not yet
have a well-defined center, but is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph
on its western side. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development and a tropical storm is expected to form
during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally
northwestward and then northward near or along the Gulf coast of
Mexico, upper Texas, and Louisiana coasts with additional
strengthening possible by the middle of this week ...
... * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent ...
... ”

[Messing About]

This season I am practicing making decisions related to Tropical Systems as if I were anchored at Culebra, PR. Invest 92, the red spot above, will likely curve east of the Spanish Virgins but I will decide in the next day or two if I would move from Culebra to La Parquera, on the SW section of mainland PR.

Hoping this is the last season of making these virtual decisions. I’m beyond ready for the reality of full time cruising.

[GordMay]

The system [AL91] is expected to become a tropical storm [PTC-6], by Monday, as it moves north along the western coast of the Gulf of Mexico; and then strengthen into a hurricane, by midweek [Sept 18].

The average date, for the 4th Atlantic hurricane, is Sep 16. The Atlantic has already had 3 hurricanes [Beryl, Debby and Ernesto - Francine will be next].


“Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory” ~ 100 AM CDT [0600 UTC] Mon Sep 09 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/090542.shtml

PTC-6 Discussion Number 2
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/090232.shtml

[GordMay]

“PTC-6 Forecast Discussion [#3]” - 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/090859.shtml

Originally Posted by NHC

“ ... Since the system is still not very well-organized and lacks an inner core structure, only slow strengthening is expected through this
morning. However, the disturbance is expected to soon become better
organized while remaining over very warm waters, with high low- to
mid-tropospheric humidity, and low vertical shear for the next 48 hours. Therefore steady strengthening is likely to begin by later today. This is also shown by most of the numerical guidance.
When the system nears landfall, the global models show increasing
upper-level westerlies near the northwestern Gulf coast, and this could lead to stronger vertical wind shear over the cyclone.
Therefore the rate of strengthening could at least level off as the center nears the coast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction, close to the Decay-SHIPS guidance, and continues to show the system as a hurricane at landfall ... ”

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm “Francine” [formerly AL91] is near 24.4N 96.2W, at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 4 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb.

Francine will strengthen to a hurricane near 25.4N 95.6W, this afternoon, move to 27.1N 94.2W Wed morning, 29.0N 92.5W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm again near 31.4N 91.1W Thu morning, and continue NE and weaken to a tropical depression near 33.8N 90.5W Thu afternoon.

Associated rough to very rough seas will persist off the coast of Veracruz and Tamaulipas through at least this morning. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf Thu through Fri, however westerly swell will impact the southeastern Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure will become established over the N-central Gulf Sat and Sat night.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

Key Messages ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...sages#contents

[GordMay]

“Storms active within the past 12 hours, valid for: 10 September 2024 updated 1022 UTC [Worldwide]” ~ National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR]
➥ https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/current/

“Real-time Guidance for TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE (AL06)” ~ NCAR
➥ https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/real...2024/al062024/

[GordMay]

FWIW: All of these links to the NHC & NCAR automatically refresh, and show the latest [updated] version.

[GordMay]