Three Tropical Waves Developing

[GordMay]

Forecasters are watching multiple areas of interest [1], for tropical development, over the next couple of days, including a new tropical depression, that may strengthen into a major hurricane by the end of the week.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects Tropical Depression Twelve [TD-12] to gradually strengthen into a hurricane, over the next couple of days, as it moves northwest, toward the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
If the depression grows into a tropical storm, it’ll earn the name “Kirk”. This would be the eleventh named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the seventh storm to grow into a hurricane.
They’re also watching a disturbance, in the western Caribbean Sea, for signs of tropical development, in the coming days. The NHC gives this system a 50 percent chance of developing into a tropical system, through this week. Models are struggling with the future of this disturbance, and where it may track, if it winds up developing in the days ahead.
Tropical Storm “Isaac” is a former hurricane, that’s racing toward the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic Ocean.
Tropical Storm “Joyce” is in the same vicinity, as soon-to-be Kirk, and it’s expected to dissipate early this week.

[1] ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

TD-12 ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/300838.shtml


Interactive map ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

[GordMay]

Chances are increasing, for Invest 94L to become the season's next named storm - “Nadine”, although it's doubtful the storm will have direct impact on the U.S..
On Monday, the system had a 60 percent chance of developing in the next seven days, and a 10 percent chance of developing in the next 48 hours. By Tuesday morning, the chances of formation in the next 48 hours jumped to 30%, and 50% over the next week.

[S/V Illusion]

Nice to repeat commonly available forecast info for the benefit of the one sailor in the world who doesn't know how to check for himself. An ‘A’ for completeness this time.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by S/V Illusion

Nice to repeat commonly available forecast info for the benefit of the one sailor in the world who doesn't know how to check for himself. An ‘A’ for completeness this time.

I have a bad habit of taking knowledge, or the ability to find it, for granted. However, when it’s something a little more esoteric, like advanced calculus, or weather/climate forecasting, it can be very obnoxious, and even arrogant, to act like everyone should know it.

Sometimes, even what you consider common knowledge, may be lost on others, and we shouldn’t mock others for that. After all, whatever it is, there was literally a time when we had to learn that information, too.
With 2,630 views, on this thread [to date], I posit there's more than one sailor, who finds the information useful, or interesting.

Still, I’m often amazed [& dismayed], at the things, many people don’t know, or don’t know how [or bother to] to find out, in this age of ‘Google’.

1 In 4 Americans Thinks The Sun Goes Around The Earth, Survey Says
➥ https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...th-survey-says

There’s a lot to know in the universe, and astronomy is, by no means, something widely taught throughout schools, but the bare bones basics are usually covered, early in science. Things like how many planets there are, and how we all orbit the sun.
But, maybe, some people skip that day.
The National Science Foundation conducted a poll, in 2012, and discovered that 26% of Americans, when asked if the Earth went around the sun, or the sun went around the earth, got the answer wrong.
Only 39% of respondents answered that the universe began with an explosion, otherwise known as the Big Bang, and only 48% were on board with the idea of humans evolving, from a more primitive species.
The entire survey asked 10 questions, of 2,200 people, and the average worked out to 65% correct answers.

[requiem]

Originally Posted by GordMay

The National Science Foundation conducted a poll, in 2012, and discovered that 26% of Americans, when asked if the Earth went around the sun, or the sun went around the earth, got the answer wrong.

Technically both are true; although the barycenter is still within the sun.



I don't take people knowing things for granted. My experience has shown that even basic search skills are sadly a rare commodity.

I also have the good fortune to be on the other side of the continent, so can remain blissfully unaware of hurricanes apart from when they touch on sailing-relevant topics such as this forum.

[Ivanvet]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Sometimes, even what you consider common knowledge, may be lost on others, and we shouldn’t mock others for that. After all, whatever it is, there was literally a time when we had to learn that information, too.
With 2,630 views, on this thread [to date], I posit there's more than one sailor, who finds the information useful, or interesting.

[/SIZE]

I feel you don’t get enough recognition for your contributions on this forum. As one of the many silent readers, I want you to know how much I value the depth of information you provide, even if the particular topic doesn’t directly apply to me.

When it comes to weather, I’ve developed a bit of a habit—much like others enjoy crosswords. Each morning, I dive into raw data, such as Windy, and imagine future sailing trips or assess the conditions in a "hot" area, crafting theoretical plans even when I’m not on the water. After that, I compare my interpretations with the actual forecasts—looking at synoptic charts and, more importantly, reading NOAA's text forecasts and the insightful discussions there. Coming here to see a 'discussion' on the topic is just phenomenal.

Over time, I’ve found it increasingly intuitive to read and understand these charts (though my forecasting still has a way to go!). It’s fascinating how consistency, curiosity, and a bit of study can sharpen one’s grasp of something as intricate as weather—or, I suppose, any subject for that matter.

For those interested in weather, I found this course very helpful a few years ago. I'm not a racer, but weather is weather. The course is free... https://www.coursera.org/learn/meteorology

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by requiem

Technically both are true; although the barycenter is still within the sun...

We say that planets orbit stars, but that’s not the whole truth. Planets and stars actually orbit around their common centre of mass. This common centre of mass is called the barycentre.
The sun has lots of mass. In comparison, Earth's mass is very small. So, the barycentre ,between Earth and the sun, is very close to the centre of the sun.
Jupiter is a lot larger [318 times more mass] than Earth. As a result, the barycentre of Jupiter, and the sun, isn’t in the centre of the sun - it’s, actually, just outside the sun's surface.
Nonetheless both Earth, and Jupiter [as do all planets] “go around” the sun, regardless of their differing barycentres.
To say otherwise, would be just plain wrong [as were 26% of Americans polled].

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm Oscar [formerly Invest 94L]
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

Cuba's electrical grid collapsed, again, on Sunday, the fourth such failure, in 48 hours, as Hurricane “Oscar” made landfall, bringing strong winds, a powerful storm surge, and rain, to parts of eastern Cuba, and threatens to wreak further havoc, on the island's decrepit infrastructure.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center reported 70 knot winds [80 mph, 130 km/h], as the storm made its way across the island.

Cuba's national electrical grid first crashed around midday, on Friday, after the island's largest power plant shut down, sowing chaos. The grid collapsed again on Saturday morning, state-run media reported. By early evening, on Saturday, authorities reported some progress restoring power, before announcing another partial grid collapse.
Cuba had restored power to 160,000 clients in the capital Havana, just prior to the grid's Sunday collapse.

On the forecast track, the centre of “Oscar” [now a Tropical Storm] is expected to continue moving across eastern Cuba Sunday night, and Monday, then emerge off the northern coast of Cuba, late Monday, and cross the central Bahamas, on Tuesday.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

[GordMay]

T/S “Oscar” was located 45 miles [75 km] south-southeast of Long Island, in the Bahamas, on Tuesday morning.
It had winds of 40 mph [65 kph], and was moving north-northeast, at 12 mph [19 kph].

“Oscar” formed as one of the smallest hurricanes, ever recorded, in terms of its wind field. Apparently, “Oscar” is the first hurricane to have hurricane-force winds less than 11.5 miles across.
Hurricane force winds only extended about 5-6 miles [10 km], from the centre of the storm, when it first formed on Saturday. The size of its tiny hurricane force wind field doubled, to about 20 km by midday Sunday.

It caught many by surprise, as it made landfall in Grand Inagua Island, in the Bahamas, on Saturday; and a second landfall, in eastern Cuba, late Sunday. Forecasters only discovered its advanced strength, when a Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the storm’s core.

Oscar’s diminutive size evaded detection, by satellites, and initially fooled weather models. The highest fidelity global forecast models (like the oft-cited European model) can’t 'see' weather features, that are smaller than 5 or 6 miles in size. Initially, no models indicated Oscar would strengthen into a hurricane.

Prior to “Oscar”, the smallest Atlantic storm, on record, was Tropical Storm “Marco”, in 2008.

Oscar dropped at least 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain, in parts of eastern Cuba, on Monday, with forecasters warning of heavy flooding, and possible landslides. Six deaths were reported, in Guantanamo.

"Oscar" is the 15th named storm, and 10th hurricane, of the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, and ends November 30.
The seasonal average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
In May, NOAA forecasted a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, including 8 to 13 hurricanes.
The most active season, on record, was 2020, during which 30 named tropical cyclones formed.
The 2005 season had more hurricanes, developing a record of 15 such storms.

[GordMay]

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: 1205 UTC [6:05AM EDT] Wed Oct 23 2024

1007 mb low pressure, the remnants of Oscar, is located east of the central Bahamas near 25N69W.
Strong to gale SE to S winds along with 7 to 10 ft seas are found up to 60 nm east of the low center.
This low will move north-northeastward while gradually deepens over the next couple of days.
Aided by a frontal boundary forming near 30N65W, the area of strong to gale winds and rough to very rough seas will expand farther north and southeast of the center THIS this morning.
As this low pulls north of 31N late today, marine conditions north of 27N should gradually improve through Thu.
In addition, divergent flow aloft associated with an upper trough is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 25N between 67W and 70W.

[GordMay]

Tropical Weather Outlook: 200 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea: [orange]
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts
generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western
Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation [of cyclone] chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion: 0605 UTC Fri Nov 1 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

[GordMay]

As of 200 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024:
Disturbance 1 [Orange], the broad area of low pressure [1007 mb], over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, near 12Nx 81W
now has an increased chance, to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Formation chance through 48 hours [medium] 50 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days [high] 80 percent.
Outlook ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
Discussion ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
Below [interactive* graphic] ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
* Hover curser on 'X'

[GordMay]

Disturbance #1, Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97) [Red 'X']
Now [1:00 AM EST, Nov. 3] up to 90% chance of storm formation, through 7 days.

Outlook ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Discussion ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

Interactive 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Map [static map below]
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

[GordMay]

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN [was AL97]
As of 4:00AM EST, Nov. 4, the NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, located over the south-central portion of the Caribbean Sea [14.2N x 76.9W].
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jamaica.
More ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

PTC 18 Discussion Number 3
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/040850.shtml

Once the system reaches tropical storm status, it will likely be named "Rafael".
The storm is expected weaken some. as it moves into the central Gulf of Mexico, by Thursday or Friday.
Current water temperatures, in the Caribbean, are in the mid-80s, supporting the potential for a tropical storm, or even a hurricane.
However, water temperatures, in the northern Gulf, have dropped a few degrees, over the last couple of weeks. Sea surface temperatures in the upper-70s, to lower-80s, are less supportive of a strong storm.

[GordMay]

As of 7:00AM EST, PTC-18 is forecast to become a tropical storm today, and pass near Jamaica tonight, and Tuesday.
The system is forecast to become a hurricane ["Rafael"], by Tuesday night, as the system approaches western Cuba.