Three Tropical Waves Developing

[Montanan]

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Tropical Storm Gordon
11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 13
Location: 19.4°N 38.6°W
Moving: WNW [295°] at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb - 29.71 INCHES
Max sustained: 40 mph
Gordon has some chance to intensify today, before moving deeper into
the moisture-starved environment, across the tropical Atlantic, and
some weakening is anticipated, this weekend.
While the shear isn't expected to be too hostile, any re-intensification during next week is expected to be slow, and there is a chance that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low.
For now, the official forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone, for the entire forecast period.
Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5, when the system reaches a slightly more moist, unstable, and low-shear environment.

Your namesake looks as if it will develop strongly a week or two from now, out of the forecast period. Luckily without the usual Azore’s high it is being pulled way north to the middle of the Atlantic.

Despite the ominous “worse than usual” predictions for this season, apart from devastating hurricane Beryl it has been all quiet on the eastern front.

SWL

[GordMay]

Essentially, all major forecasts predicted an extremely active 2024 season, with accumulated cyclone energy [ACE] estimates ranging from 170 to 250, compared to a historical average of just over 100.
The current 2024 seasonal ACE is 59.9, as of September 13, 2024, 09:00 MT [11:00 AM EDT 3:00 PM GMT 15:00 UTC].
All forecasters are standing by their extremely active seasonal predictions [/w some minor adjustment].
The following paper discusses why:

“DISCUSSION OF 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO DATE AND FORECAST THOUGHTS ON THE REST OF THE SEASON [as of Sept 3, 2024]” ~ by Philip J. Klotzbach, et al, at the Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University [CSU]
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forec...discussion.pdf

[GordMay]

Forecasters are watching a disturbance, over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America [*Item 3], for potential development, as it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico, next week. Anyone with interests along the Gulf Coast, should pay very close attention to this system, over the next couple of days.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center [NHC] gives the system a 60 percent [medium] chance of growing into a tropical depression or tropical storm, by early next week, as it skirts Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula.
The environment will be favourable for tropical development, with relatively low wind shear, ample humidity, and extremely warm water temperatures; all of which are ingredients, a disturbance needs, to organize, and gather strength.

*Tropical Weather Outlook ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Tropical Weather Discussion ➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml




Item 3 in Orange

[grahamj]

Is there something wrong with my browser? The NHC currently says less than 10% chance of cyclone formation within seven days for both of those disturbances.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by grahamj

Is there something wrong with my browser? The NHC currently says less than 10% chance of cyclone formation within seven days for both of those disturbances.

The 10% chance is for the first 2 disturbances:, the remnants of ‘Gordon’. and AL96, in the Central Subtropical Atlantic.
The 60% chance is for the 3RD Item, in Orange in the NW Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

[Tin Tin]

Originally Posted by grahamj

Is there something wrong with my browser? The NHC currently says less than 10% chance of cyclone formation within seven days for both of those disturbances.

Click on the 7 day forecast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgt...n=atlc&fdays=7

[grahamj]

My browser just goes to the headline page for some reason. Thanks for the heads up.

[GordMay]

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico [in Red]:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form during the next few days over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent portions of Central America [Yucatan].
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves slowly northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[GordMay]

Tropical Weather Discussion: 0605 UTC Tue Sep 24 2024
➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea; centered near 18.6N 82.8W, UTC [100 nm WSW of Grand Cayman], moving NW at 5 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt, with gusts to 40 kt.
Peak seas, near Nine, are 8 to 11 ft, in an area from 17N to 21N between 79W and 84W.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
Strengthening is expected, during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday, and continue strengthening on Thursday as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

[GordMay]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight, first reported in post #19, swept the Carolinas and Southeast, bringing historic rain and flooding. In Carolina Beach, a thousand-year rainfall event brought 18 inches, over just 12 hours.

Historic Flooding Rainfall with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight: September 15-16, 2024
➥ https://www.weather.gov/ilm/2024PTC8

[GordMay]

[GordMay]

Tropical Storm Helene [was PTC 9]
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f19/tropicalstormhelene-289595.html#post3936982

[GordMay]

Tropical Weather Outlook: 200 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane “Isaac”, located over the central Subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Tropical Storm “Joyce”, located over the central Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone “Helene”, located inland, over the Ohio River Valley.

➥ https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

[GordMay]

On Friday:
Hurricane “Isaac” was a Category 1 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds at 85 mph (140 kph), and its center was roughly 995 miles (1,600 kilometers) west of the Azores, and moving East, at 16 mph (26 kph).
Isaac was expected to strengthen more, before weakening, ultimately becoming a post-tropical cyclone, by Monday.

Tropical Storm “Joyce”, the impacts of which were not affecting land, was also forecast to intensify. before weakening early next week.
It’s center was about 1,250 miles (2,015 kilometers) East of the Northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were around 50 mph (85 kph) in the afternoon, and the system was moving NorthWest, at 13 mph (20 kph).