A world without oil

[CaptainK]

A world without oil

Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that supplies will start to run out in four years' time

By Daniel Howden

Published: 14 June 2007



Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.




For more on this story. Click onto this link: A world without oil - Independent Online Edition > Sci_Tech

[senormechanico]

I'm prepared. I use an air popper for my popcorn.

<sarc>

Steve B.

[Hubec]

If what the article is referring to is the immenint demise of cheap arabian oil it's a gross exageration - but most of us will likely live to see the day when the deserts are dry.

If the article is referring to all oil it's just plain ridiculous. The reality is that we have at least 200 years worth of fossil fuel derived energy reserves - assuming they are consumed at the current rate - multiplied 3 fold every 100 years. The bad news is that this isn't the "cheap" oil that we currently consume instead it's deep sea oil, oil stripped from bitumen or shale, synthetic oil derived from coal, etc... This "future oil" could cost as much as $80 dollars a barrel to produce but will last a loooong time.

[seafox]

Betta fill my tank and do an oil change.

[Lancerbye]

It must be true. Afterall it was written by scientists. I wonder if these are the same ones that predicted Y2K and how much stock they have in the present oil market. Stocks will definitely go up. Out here in the middle east I am paying a whopping 22 cents a litre(CAD) for Super (top grade gas). How ever it has gone up from 16 cents a litre in the past few years. This reflects the true International oil prices. (no Tax)

[mudnut]

Com'on think outside the square will ya!!!

We take out all that oil from crevice's inside planet earth,it don't really matter if we have more or less,for what we are doing is weakening the earths crust and mantle.

Have ya ever wittnest a kid with a new toy he dosen't know how to operate.Not long befor it's broken."And you thought running out of oil was a major problem??"I guess what it all says is that the price of screwing the planet is just about to go up again!Mudnut.PS..Kevin did ya get my PM?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Hubec

... The reality is that we have at least 200 years worth of fossil fuel derived energy reserves - assuming they are consumed at the current rate - multiplied 3 fold every 100 years...

I don't suppose you'd plant an acorn ...

To witness oil fields in every part of the world peaking, but yet to claim that there will never be a global peak, requires an explanation completely divorced from conventional logic.
U.S. oil discovery peaked in l930, and production in l970-71. Discovery peaked in the UK North Sea about l975, and output close to the end of the 20th century. The global discovery peak for conventional oil was 1965.


According to BP, we have 40.5 years of Oil reserves.
Goto: Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
BP Global - Reports and publications - Statistical Review of World Energy 2007

Oil and gas reserves were largely unchanged in the year with the reserves-to-production ratio remaining 40.5 years for oil* and 60 years for gas. Despite a small decline in 2006, oil reserves are still some 15 per cent higher than a decade ago, at 1,208 billion barrels. Global gas reserves were slightly higher at 181 trillion cubic metres, with the US and several Opec members showing increases.

* Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio– If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remainingreserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.

Excerpted from the Independent News article:
”... BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide 40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate of when the world will run dry.

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives ...”

[never monday]

However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next four years before entering a steepening decline which will have massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live our lives ...”

The sky is falling.......

Again another reason to suport BioDiesel production.

[GordMay]

I'm not so certain I want to suport BioDiesel production. ...

Today we have about 900 Million persons worldwide suffering acute or chronic malnutrition.
Working to keep cars fed, while people starve, is part of the irrational euphoria surrounding the “Biofuels Revolution”

BIOFUELS BLUNDER ~ by Lester Brown
Massive Diversion of U.S. Grain to Fuel Cars is Raising World Food Prices, Risking Political Instability.
Goto: BIOFUELS BLUNDER - statement presented to U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works

Growing biofuels demand raises food prices ~ By Chris
FT.com / MARKETS / Commodities - Growing biofuels demand raises food prices

Eating Fossil Fuels ~ by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
Oil, Food, and the Coming Crisis in Agriculture.
http://www.gunnarlindgren.com/fuels-hel.PDF

[Hubec]

Gord; from your tone you seem to be arguing my post but I didn't see anything in yours that contradicted me. We will likely run out of sizeable reserves of "conventional" cheap oil within our life times. Meaning no more high quality natural oil that literally pumps itself out of the ground. But that certainly won't happen in 4 years. It's also certain that when that does happen we will still have 100s of years of "non conventional" oil derived from alternative sources. This oil will cost a lot to produce and there may be hiccups in the supply as new industries come online to meet world demand. BUT there will never be a day within our life times when there is no fuel at all for us to power our generators and auxilaries - which is what I read as the implied worry of the original post.

[ssullivan]

I agree with Gord about the bio fuels. It will be quite frightening if food becomes wrapped up with energy consumption. Another harmful side effect is all the agriculture necessary to support the bio fuel production. Nuclear energy (as despised by many as it is) would be a cleaner alternative than bio fuels.

[GordMay]

I’m not qualified to express an opinion on just when, nor how steep a downward curve, world oil production will decline to disastrous levels. It does seem self-evident, to me, that we will run out of “economic” oil much sooner than “all” oil.
Notwithstanding, whether we have 10, 20, 100, 200 years or more, we are facing an inevitable & foreseeable shortage, then finally a total absence of oil., unless we change our patterns of consumption.

My earlier reference to planting acorns, was intended to express the view that civilized people look and plan beyond their own lifetimes.

[Pura Vida]

Check out Robert Newman's History of Oil.

[Intentional Drifter]

I'm not saying that this is the answer, but I think approaches that work to solve two problems at the same time are ones that should be investigated as thoroughly as possible.

Changing World Technologies, Inc.

Harnessing clean energy with a process that also helps to clean up our mess is an intermediate step, not a final one.

ID

[schoonerdog]

Awww, quit whining and embrace it!!! I plan on winning the lottery and getting one of these. African Cats Newsletter
a cat which does 7.5 knots in 10 knots of wind. They are also making them with incredible solar panels, a couple kilowatts. It will go 22 NM on solar power alone on a sunny day. Not everything in the world, but if you intended to be a pure sailor and just use the engines for getting into the slip, it would be fine. You could probably sail 3 knots in just 5 knots of wind. Retractible engines, no dragging a thousand lbs of diesel with you.
And yeah, anyone whose had economics knows we'll actually never "run out" of oil. It will just be so expensive that you'd never dream of burning it.